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Forums - Website Topics - (Update) The Lack Of Adjustments Are A Little Worrying

Conegamer said:

Wii U- Slightly undertracked (Around 200k)

Why exactly do you think this?  From the data we have as of the end of March...

USA
NPD: 1075k
VGC: 1116k

Europe (not exactly covering the exact same territories)
Nin: 547k
VGC: 596k

Japan:
MC: 854k
VGC: 858k

So where is the Wii U undertracked by 200k when it is overtracked 94k based on the numbers we know?



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pezus said:
Conegamer said:
thismeintiel said:

Is there a reason people are posting that the numbers are biased, yet give neither a reason why or there own estimates? Can I assume you have no other reasons other than wishful thinking? Yea, I think I'll go with that.

 Seriously, if you can convince me with LOGIC AND FACTS, I'm more than open to changing them. It would only help the thread be more accurate/credible.

Well, mainly the fact that the 3DS is outselling the Wii U by around 5:1, and yet only has 2x as much stock on shelves yet both are "close to reality" for one. That and the fact that VGC is saying the PS3 is outselling the 360 also by around 50% on a weekly basis, and yet should for some reason have the same amount of stock on shelves. This seems unlikely; I would imagine the PS3 would have more stock on shelves, closer to 1.5mil (giving a supply of around 11 weeks, compared to the 14 weeks if we use the 1.2mil for the 360. If we look at 12 weeks being about right, it would mean the Wii U would have around 400k on shelves and the 3DS 1.4mil, though admitaddly handhelds are slightly different so we can't read much into that).

In addition, your prediction that the PS2 "only" sold 3mil last Fiscal year is somewhat erroneous. I would imagine it would be closer to 3.5, if not 4mil. As far as I'm concerned, Sony will say something when the PS3 outships the 360, so a more likely shipment number is 77mil maximum. 

 

Taking all this into account, I'd say it should read more like:

Wii U- Slightly undertracked (Around 200k)

3DS- Slightly overtracked (Around 300k)

360- Undertracked (Around 1mil)

PS3- Undertracked (Around 1.3mil)

 

I agree with everything else you said, however. Overall, pretty fair predictions and these are my own, and thus I shalln't defend them if they come under attack by other members. 

Why is it erroneous to think that a (slowly) dying console sees a drop YOY in shipments? That's only logical, but I suppose anything is possible with PS2.

Why would you imagine PS2 shipments were closer to 3.5 or 4m? Is that a gut feeling or based on something else?

Just a gut feeling really. I would imagine that if the PS3 had outshipped the 360 Sony would have said something. So as they have paired up the numbers, it makes sense that the PS2 may have sold more than we may think.



 

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.

Yakuzaice said:
Conegamer said:

Wii U- Slightly undertracked (Around 200k)

Why exactly do you think this?  From the data we have as of the end of March...

USA
NPD: 1075k
VGC: 1116k

Europe (not exactly covering the exact same territories)
Nin: 547k
VGC: 596k

Japan:
MC: 854k
VGC: 858k

So where is the Wii U undertracked by 200k when it is overtracked 94k based on the numbers we know?

Was merely going on the fact that at current sales rates, the Wii U has nearly 6 months supply on shelves. Sure, it's possible that they stuffed the channels and there's a lot of Wii U's just waiting to be bought, but it's a pretty high number. I'm not saying the numbers are coming from Japan or the US, though, as we have "accurate" numbers for them (though the whole NPD stuff isn't exact). 

But again, it just seems like with current sales trends there's a lot on store shelves.



 

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.

@ conegamer

If you agree with my other points, then you must agree with the Wii numbers, which is selling on par with the Wii U and has a similar number of supply on shelves. Also, you must remember that while we are entering a slow period of the year and retailers will be ordering less stock, supply is still a little bloated from the holidays. I also imagine Nintendo was trying their darnedest to reach their already lowered goal of 4M.

 As for the PS3, I chose the same number as the 360 because when VGC did adjust numbers right after shipments and Nintendo's charts, Sony and MS were usually shown to have the same number in supply. Sometimes MS was shown to have more. 1.2M just seemed to be a good number between the 1-1.5M that I believe ioi said was usually on shelves. 3DS was close enough to 1M, so I decided to leave it as is.

I fail to see how the PS2 remained relatively flat YOY, given that everything else is declining. If I remember correctly, I believe the PS2 was still selling in some US stores in early FY2011. The PS2 definitely did not have that luxury in FY2012. I don't recall any announcements of it starting to sell in any new regions, either. Most of that happened in 2009/2010. So, it's pretty easy to see why the PS2 would be down at least 27% YOY.



AshKetchum1992 said:

But the charts for 2007 and all the years before it (2006, 2005, 2004, etc) need the PS2 data to be complete, I mean, PS2 sold more than X360 and PS3 in 2007 so PS2 was still relevant that year, the same with 2006, 2005, etc.

I agree. The older charts do need the data, but now (2013) the PS2 data is not needed.



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drkohler said:
Farsala said:
Yeah, I do not really understand how this site which uses official sources does not actually use those official sources lol.

Huh? When did that happen? This site uses past data and mathematical formulas to estimate current trends in hw sales. For software, it's pretty much rumours and a very few individual sources. I'd say if the numbers are within 10-15% in hw and 20-25% in sw then it's a good week...

VGchartz rarely adjusts to NPD and Nintendo, and big 3 shipment numbers anymore. Bold would often be off by 30%+ in a given week. 360 probably has not gone below 100k and yet it is at 73k.



I'm pretty durn sure that Sony would've bragged about PS3 shipment numbers if it really outsold X360.

Is 3DS still undertracked in NA weekly or not?



http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/profile/92109/nintendopie/ Nintendopie  Was obviously right and I was obviously wrong. I will forever be a lesser being than them. (6/16/13)

Otakumegane said:
I'm pretty durn sure that Sony would've bragged about PS3 shipment numbers if it really outsold X360.

Is 3DS still undertracked in NA weekly or not?


@bold Why do people insist that Sony would do that?  I think Either of them would brag that they got to 80m but not that they passed one another. Because one may has shipped more then the other but in reality still has not outsold the other due to slightly larger supply. Thing with these shipments is that I think they have around the same supply but more PS3s are in transit then 360s. Retailers only have so much space.



thought i would add two 3ds games that are undertracked pretty badly. Firstly nintnendo have released numbers for paper mario of 1.97 million sold and mario tennis at 1.11 million units sold. Even if you argue thats including shipped there is no way half a million paper marios are sitting on shelves, even more so with mario tennis. In the interest of fairness luigis mansion 2 is around 85k overtracked. Surprised big differences are not changed considering we come to this site to mainly look at the numbers. At least i do anyway!



lot a gray areas in the OP

who are you do decide what amount on shelves is normal and possible

"77.4M-77.7M* shipped as of March 2013 to VGC's 73.97M sold"

again ps3 shipped numbers are not in set in stone as ps2 numbers are included since last year, "your estimate based" is just that an estimate

DS is your only good argument


vgc has always been a estimate site numbers on here are estimates or to give a good idea of, there will be no adjustments in the near future or until more data is released

sony is still behind ms by the simple fact that they have said they overtook ms and that they started to cowardly combined there numbers



                                                             

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