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Forums - Sales Discussion - Will the PS4 outsell the XBox One and WiiU?

g911turbo on 17 May 2013
Zero999 said:
goopy20 said:

From CNN Money: http://money.cnn.com/video/technology/2013/03/18/t-ts-nintendo-wii-u-teardown.cnnmoney/index.html

And no a regular controller doesn't cost Sony or MS $30 to manufacture lol. Right now almost half the BOM costs of the Wii U are in the controller, which has a processor and all kind of stuff build in. It's also clear that Sony isn't planning on taking a huge loss with the ps4 as they did with the ps3 and like I said, it all depends on how many people will buy it at the launch price. If it sells millions and there is a short supply then I don't expect a pricedrop anyime soon. Sucks for consumers but Sony or MS won't be complaining. If they sell 30k units a week then you can expect pricedrops untill they do start selling because developers will pressure the platform holders. It always work like that or do you expect them to maintain a $500 pricepoint when nobody buys the consoles and they can't make any real money on software?

bolded: stop repeating this nonsense. saying the controller has a processor only adds to your lack of information.

Its a Broadcom wifi direct chip that most likely costs 5 or less.  I would imagine e the lcd + touch is 20 to 25. Total bom overage compared to current Controller being 25-30.  By current controllers I mean xbox and ps3.  Ps4 adds some new features to the controller too.  

I also think Nintendo is full of it when they say they are losing money per console. They must still be included r&d In that figure 



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snowdog on 20 May 2013
g911turbo said:
snowdog said:
Zero999 said:
snowdog said:
There's no way that the PS4 or 720 will retail for $299 after a year on the market, not knowing what we do about the hardware and what's bundled in the box.

Microsoft might manage a $399.99 price at launch if they didn't bundle Kinect 2.0 with it, but can you really see that happening..?

And Sony have recently said they're not going to make a huge loss on each unit sold. We're talking about an 8 core CPU, a GPU pushing 1.8TFlops, 8GB of GDDR5, a camera bar with 2 cameras and a Move/DS3 hybrid.

I really can't see either one of them releasing for less than $400, more like $499.99.

I could totally see microdoft releasing next box with kinect 2.0 bundled and necessary for the system. it would have moderate specs ( 1 Tflop, 8 gb ddr3 Ram tops) and retail at 399 with some loss.



The problem is that the BOM benefits that 8GB of DDR3 and a 1.1TFlop GPU bring to the table are going to be cancelled out by bundling Kinect 2.0 with the system. There has been a strong rumour doing the rounds that they're going to have 2 SKUs - a $299.99 SKU with a 2 year commitment to Live Gold at $15 per month and a non-subscription SKU available for $499.99, which would leave you needing to make (cheaper) arrangements for Live Gold on top. The latter SKU would be miles better value.

I can't see either one of the PS4 or 720 retailing under $400, which is going to cause huge problems with sales after Christmas.

Microsoft can kiss my ass if they think I'm going to spend $15 on xbox live per month for 2 years.

Then expect to pay $499.99 with a Live Gold subscription on top if that rumour is accurate. Not sure of the price of a year's subscription in the States but over here you're looking at £30 per year at the cheapest. And with Sony recently saying they're not going to take a huge loss on each unit sold I can see that retailing for $499.99 too. A $50 price cut for the Wii U would leave the Basic SKU being half the price of the PS4 and 720.

Both the PS4 and 720 are going to struggle to sell during the launch window onwards, and because they're both going to be supply constrained at launch due to the components being on a 28nm process they'll be lucky to sell 2m each before the end of the year. They'll probably do just over half that going by the launches of the PS3 (1.2m) and 360 (1.1m). With the software that the Wii U has on the way between now and the end of the year (New Super Luigi U, Wii Fit, Pikmin 3, The Wonderful 101, Game & Wario, Wind Waker HD, 3D Mario and Mario Kart U) I can see the Wii U having an installed userbase over 10m. 3m between now and November and 4m between November and the end of the year. That sort of a gap is going to be difficult to close.

Microsoft have really cocked up this generation imo, they should have released the 720 in 2011 with Kinect.



HikenNoAce on 20 May 2013
snowdog said:
g911turbo said:
snowdog said:
Zero999 said:
snowdog said:
There's no way that the PS4 or 720 will retail for $299 after a year on the market, not knowing what we do about the hardware and what's bundled in the box.

Microsoft might manage a $399.99 price at launch if they didn't bundle Kinect 2.0 with it, but can you really see that happening..?

And Sony have recently said they're not going to make a huge loss on each unit sold. We're talking about an 8 core CPU, a GPU pushing 1.8TFlops, 8GB of GDDR5, a camera bar with 2 cameras and a Move/DS3 hybrid.

I really can't see either one of them releasing for less than $400, more like $499.99.

I could totally see microdoft releasing next box with kinect 2.0 bundled and necessary for the system. it would have moderate specs ( 1 Tflop, 8 gb ddr3 Ram tops) and retail at 399 with some loss.



The problem is that the BOM benefits that 8GB of DDR3 and a 1.1TFlop GPU bring to the table are going to be cancelled out by bundling Kinect 2.0 with the system. There has been a strong rumour doing the rounds that they're going to have 2 SKUs - a $299.99 SKU with a 2 year commitment to Live Gold at $15 per month and a non-subscription SKU available for $499.99, which would leave you needing to make (cheaper) arrangements for Live Gold on top. The latter SKU would be miles better value.

I can't see either one of the PS4 or 720 retailing under $400, which is going to cause huge problems with sales after Christmas.

Microsoft can kiss my ass if they think I'm going to spend $15 on xbox live per month for 2 years.

Then expect to pay $499.99 with a Live Gold subscription on top if that rumour is accurate. Not sure of the price of a year's subscription in the States but over here you're looking at £30 per year at the cheapest. And with Sony recently saying they're not going to take a huge loss on each unit sold I can see that retailing for $499.99 too. A $50 price cut for the Wii U would leave the Basic SKU being half the price of the PS4 and 720.

Both the PS4 and 720 are going to struggle to sell during the launch window onwards, and because they're both going to be supply constrained at launch due to the components being on a 28nm process they'll be lucky to sell 2m each before the end of the year. They'll probably do just over half that going by the launches of the PS3 (1.2m) and 360 (1.1m). With the software that the Wii U has on the way between now and the end of the year (New Super Luigi U, Wii Fit, Pikmin 3, The Wonderful 101, Game & Wario, Wind Waker HD, 3D Mario and Mario Kart U) I can see the Wii U having an installed userbase over 10m. 3m between now and November and 4m between November and the end of the year. That sort of a gap is going to be difficult to close.

Microsoft have really cocked up this generation imo, they should have released the 720 in 2011 with Kinect.

 

If NSMBWiiU failed to sell well (for a Mario game), how do you expect NSLuigiU to sell well?



snowdog on 20 May 2013

It's done around 1.8m so far, hardly a failure mate. And I'm not saying that any one of these titles alone is going to drive sales through the roof (although you could probably say that about 3D Mario and Mario Kart 8 to be fair) but collectively they're going to increase hardware sales over the course of the next 7 and a half months.

The Wii U's main problem so far has been a lack of software, and this is being addressed.



Dark_Lord_2008 on 22 May 2013

PS4 specs look far superior than its competitors. PS4 will features 8GB DDR5 @2.6GHz is far superior than the XBox One's 8GB DDR3 @ 1.9GHz. Bring on the 8th generation console sales wars. The PS4 should be able to outsell the XBox One and the Wii U.



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Zelhawks37 on 22 May 2013

For now, I see a 3DS effect on the Wii U, given the amount of games that Nintendo plans to show at E3. Too early to tell, but the Wii U looks to be the most set to sell the most ATM.



Estelle and Adol... best characters ever! XD

Booyah on 22 May 2013
Dark_Lord_2008 said:
PS4 specs look far superior than its competitors. PS4 will features 8GB DDR5 @2.6GHz is far superior than the XBox One's 8GB DDR3 @ 1.9GHz. Bring on the 8th generation console sales wars. The PS4 should be able to outsell the XBox One and the Wii U.


Hard to tell without more details like pricing is very important. The most powerful console has never won a generation, so specs aren't all that matters.



snowdog on 22 May 2013

So have anyone's sales predictions for the One consoles changed now that we have confirmation of specs and features..?

Having to install the entire contents of the disc before you can play a game onto a 500GB hard drive is going to be a problem, that disc space is going to fill up FAST. You could of course install it and read it from the Cloud but, here in the UK at least, broadband connections aren't really up to the task...and people with bandwidth limits are going to be fucked. And it will also drastically increase loading times too.

And we've also now had it confirmed that each game is tied to one console, used games will need people to pay a fee before being able to play them and you can forget about lending games to your mates. That's going to be a dealbreaker for a fair few people.



Daisuke72 on 22 May 2013

Honestly, I don't think the Wii U will come in last after Xbox's announcement today, in fact the One's announcement was so terrible that it makes me want to have a Wii U, I'd put money in Microsoft's rival's hands to make sure they don't win this gen with their anti-consumerism.



ROFLMAO on 22 May 2013

I can see Wii U/PS4 fighting for the throne... Gamestop and other Used games stores may well boycott the XBOX1.

ATM, I'm guessing it will be something like this at the end of 2018-

Wii U- 90m
PS4- 87.5m
XB1- 35m