The Nintendo fans sound like Ps3 fans at the begining.
"Sales will pick up after X"
"Sales will pick up after Y"
"Sales will pick up after Z"
The fact of the matter is, if you are relying on a game you will be sorely disappointed. Even GTA4 didn't do much for the Ps3. Even MGS4 didn't do much for the Ps3. GTA sells as much as Nintendo's best franchises. MGS sells a little less but is still a massive seller.
If you are relying on a price drop you will be disappointed. The Wii U isn't unaffordable. A price drop might help like the first one helped the Ps3. However, in the Ps3's case it still had a high price point and could look forward to price reduction again. Nintendo is already losing money on the Wii U. One thing Nintendo isn't as good as Sony with is reducing costs of their system. Why? because they already use cheap components that have little room for getting cheaper. As time drags on they will get cheaper but definitely not at the same pace as new technology. So they drop the price of the Wii U... the price reduction will be more than the cost reduction. Then when will they be able to drop it again?
Okay, let's say that a price reduction and games do something unprecedented. MGS4 increased sales by 141%. GTA increased it by 80%. 299 price point increased it by 80% the 499 pice point increased it by 52%. We also know that no single thing really sustained sales. But lets pretend that everything works out for the Wii U. It gets a measly 50 dollar drop and somehow attracts people. Let's say Mario releases and it attracts people. Okay, let's say it gets a bigger increase than anything the Ps3 received AND it sustains sales.... well, the best we are looking at is still something under 100k a week. 32k (initial sales) x 3 (200%) = 96k. This is also using current sales. Sales may even drop lower than this.
I can see Wii U selling less than 6 million this calendar year. It all really depends when Nintendo cuts the price. But if they wait till sometime like E3 it wont be good for them.