Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Why Nintendo is failing and will likely replace both of their consoles earlier than expected.

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EDIT: SEE NEW COMMENT AT BOTTOM OF POST

Near the beginning of 2012 I made a thread that discussed my predictions on next-gen and where I thought Nintendo, MS, and Sony would take their gaming consoles. I also made a separate thread on why Vita needed to be a smartphone and why Nintendo could potentially still survive with a gaming-only portable device. Both of these threads had similar ideas surrounding gaming-centric devices and the post-iOS/Android world.

I'll give ya a hint, even stand-alone cameras are now running full operating systems with downloadable apps and wireless connectivity.

Since the exponential rise in smartphones, consumers have come to not only desire, but flat out expect their consumer electronics to have a certain set of functionality and experience. Now, this does not mean literally everything that plugs in, but items that are within the threshold as having a certain entertainment expectation and especially if you heavily interact with the item. So while a DVD player or TV is perfectly accepted to be a dumb portal type of device, a gaming console is not.

For the last 4 or 5 years, we've seen plenty or articles saying Apple (and by extension Google) were going to kill off portable gaming consoles as people chose their devices, with far more features and cheap software, regardless if the gaming device provided a far better gaming experience. Well folks, its happened but not for the reasons most initially thought. They are not choosing these devices over portable gaming consoles because of cheaper games... in fact, gaming has little to nothing to do with it. Its because of the experience and full features offered for the same or similar price.

The consumer largely will NOT buy a device that cannot do what its now expected to exist. This is why Vita needed to be a smartphone and why Nintendo, even with its amazing first party, will still be reduced generation over generation to a niche portable device.

However, its easy to see that relationship in portables, but what about the home consoles? I think WiiU is already starting to prove this point and I'm making this statement now. WHICHEVER NEXT-GEN CONSOLE RELEASES THAT RUNS A FULL SMART-OS LIKE IOS/ANDROID/WINPHONE, THAT WILL BE THE DOMINANT "CONSOLE" NEXT-GEN.

Its as simple as that. The general consumer demands a full experience and in reality, only Microsoft is in the default position to provide this.

Nintendo clearly missed this opportunity and failed to have Android integration with its WiiU system. It severely lacks applications and media playback that would resonate with the general user. Sure, WiiU has a fantastic browser far surpassing any device connected to a TV thus far, except a PC. It also has a couple mostly 'ok' applications that really can't be blamed on Nintendo for their uninspiring user experience. Then it has a Nintendo/gaming-centric social system that is very nice, but is still only going to attract the more 'core gamer'. A general consumer would want that type of integration with Facebook and Twitter, which is so far non-existant in WiiU. Nintendo will have declining market presence not due to its perceived "kiddy" image or lack of raw horsepower, but solely due to its lack of a full featured experience.

Sony has already made this mistake with its Vita. It tried to offer a limited full OS with the system and throw in the biggest apps on its own. But that is not enough and certainly doesn't warrant its purchase along side anyone's other mobile devices. So with the PS4 (or Orbis / Omni), they have a choice. They can continue their own OS and have very limited application support that pales in comparison with more mature OS systems OR they can combine some of their root security and other systems with an Android application base. If they put out a limited system, even with a decent browser (PS3's is an older variant of WiiU's), they will not compete in the long run with Microsoft. Sony needs to follow their smartphone plans, utilize their Android know-how and provide the full experience in order to compete.

Microsoft will have win8 on their next console. It will be more similar to RT or winphone than PC, but it will exist and it will do everything. It will have Skype. It will have a full browser. It will have hundreds of applications, if not thousands, that can be downloaded and integrated into the console. Integrated Bing. Integrated and sync'd content (video and music) between your TV console, PC, and phone/tablet (if using winphone). You will have all your $60 console rich games along with $0.99 mobile games. You will have more content and integration than iTV or GoogleTV currently provide (though GTV is close). Microsoft is the only one of the these three that will automatically offer it as they are the only one who is also a major OS creator.

So, it looks like MS is by default going to be the only one that definitely meets my statements from early 2012, but Sony could still get there if it wanted to or if they really see this important change in consumer demand for this type of device. Long gone are the days where its just a game console stuck in a corner of a kids room. Those kids grew up and want the gaming console in the front room to play with their kids and they demand that it now does everything else too. Otherwise no sale.

Nintendo, you're the farthest behind this curve. I think you realize its happening but refuse to fully grasp the situation. Given that, 3DS and WiiU will have a shorter life. Still good gaming consoles, but that is not enough in 2013.

 

EDIT: Since so many of you keep mentioning how 3DS is doing so well that I'm obviously wrong.

Sales 2011 vs 2012

  Months at Retail Sales months@$250 months@$170 months@$150
2011 10 (9 worldwide) 13,250,062 5 5 0
2012 12 13,993,602 0 11 1

So, its launch year had a much higher price, on sale for overall fewer months, far fewer game options and still only saw about a 800,000 sales gain?
Another note:
2011 Nov/Dec @$170= 7.101m sold
2012 Nov/Dec @$170 to $150 (w/bundles) =5.788m

3DS is not doing overall as well as you'd think. Its clearly on a diminishing pattern.



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Tagged. I'll read this mountain of text later. O_O

Official Mario Kart 8 Thread:

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=162055&page=1#

Carl is a Piplup hater and deserves to be punished eternally.

3DS is doing OK, but Nintendo has Japan to back them strongly and once they took away Monster Hunter from Sony, it was like taking candy from a baby. Once they got the price to sub-$200 they were OK. It just won't have DS levels of success but it can do OK in the West.

Wii U I think is in big trouble though, it's a system not quite enough for casuals, and not quite enough for hardcore either, at its core its flawed fundamentally and I don't think even Mario Kart or Smash Bros. will fix that. 



Joel Kool 7?

Nintendo thought they could be strange again and be successful like they were with the Wii. Lightning does not strike twice. Also their managers do not seem to understand how to run a business. Launching a system with year old ports is not a good idea. While some Nintendo gamers were happy with the situation, it was not a good one. They can still fix this situation and do not need a new console or handheld.

 Bananaking was right, I was wrong. Like he always is. About the 3DS not selling at least 19.999 million in 2013...

http://www.gofundme.com/4uyups

I don't think that Nintendo is in trouble at all... I know many casuals who owns their iphone/ipad/android devices and have a gaming console too...

You know I think that people see consoles as something different... I think they don't want android apps to run on their dedicated gaming devices because they already have an iphone or a similiar device... And further more I don't think many people want to have an gaming device which is connected to a social platform because they don't want to show that they are playing video games... I know this sounds silly but hear me out= Casuals aren't kids, teenger or young adults... a huge part of casual gamers are grown up people ... And I know many people in their 30's or 40's who play video games but wouldn't never say that they are a fan of this...

To extend my point which I mention above : people seek different media... people don't want every device to be similiar with apps which can be played on all their devices....casuals play games on consoles to play "real" games...not minigames which can already be played on their mobile device..

But thats just my OP you know..

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superchunck - for perhaps the first time i have nothing to say against your argument. i think you are 100% right.

        

Goal Post Chartz             

Read the first few paragraphs and will return later to read the rest (since it looks promising).

"The path of the righteous poster is beset on all sides by the inequities of the trollish and the tyranny of flaming men.
Blessed is he, who in the name of decency and good discussion, stays on topic through the valley of cheap shots, for he is truly his forum's keeper and the finder of lost quality.
And I will strike down upon thee with great vengeance and furious anger those who would attempt to flame and troll other users.
And you will know my name is the Mod when I lay my banhammer upon thee.
"

The OP seems to be talking about a media center then a dedicated gaming device.



The twins are always ready to party.

reading latter, commenting on the title.

Wii wasn't ready to be killed off, but Ninty was ready to drop it. Ninty had poor timing in releasing WiiU. Ninty has always had the cheapest consoles, so why deviate.

poor timing.

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Way too early. When the WiiU is 6 years old than we can call it a failure.