Forums - Sales Discussion - Prediction: Wii U to dominate & PS4 to fall behind - Jan. 2013

I haven't made any predictions in about a year, last time I was a complete failure and didn't even come close. I am very confident with this prediction though and decided to post.

My prediction for next gen is that Nintendo will dominate with the Wii U, Microsoft will come in a relatively distant 2nd with the 720, and Sony will fall behind and not even compete with the PS4.

My reasoning for this is pretty simple,

 

The Wii U will dominate Japan without question IMO. The 720, doesn't stand a chance with relatively no momentum going in. As for Sony, I think it will be very similar to the 3DS VS. the PSV there. The Wii U already has Monster Hunter, Dragon Quest is coming soon too. Nintendo also has many big franchises of their own with Kirby, the Wii series, Mario, and the more popular than ever Animal Crossing. Don't count Pikmin out either as I see that growing a lot with the Wii U. I just see it being a landslide win for Wii U in Japan. This alone will be a huge advantage.

 

The Wii U is off to a slow start in Europe but this will improve in time. Once the big games start coming, so will the sales. This will be close between all 3 and there will be no clear winner in Europe.

 

In the U.S, I see it being a battle between Wii U & 720. The Wii U will sell slightly better IMO with the 720 in a very close 2nd. Sony is losing presence in the U.S.

 

Overall, I believe Sony doesn't have the ability to compete next gen. Nintendo & Microsoft will dominate the casual market and only the most core Sony fans will buy the PS4. They don't have any big franchises to compete with only 1st party games and they no longer have the massive 3rd party support of the PS/PS2 days because of Microsoft. Microsoft will have Kinect 2.0 and Nintendo will have its Haptic peripheral as its secret weapon.

The reason Wii U will beat out 720 is because of Japan. They will be close in the U.S & Europe but Wii U will lead by at least 15 Million in Japan IMO



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Japan isn't all that important in the long run. Sony dominates MS in Japan, beats them Europe, and loses in America, yet the consoles are similar.

The question is whether Nintendo has the software support to keep the DS/Wii momentum going. The Wii and DS had a ton of new IPs (and some old ones) that appealed to a broad market. If Nintendo can do this again, they can have similar success.

As of yet, Nintendo hasn't showed these games. The Wii U is doing well, but it doesn't seem to have the potential that the Wii did. Of course, the DS had a slow start as well, so Nintendo can rebound, but it all comes down to software. I can see the potential for the Wii U to create a really great living room experience, and we'll see if Nintendo can deliver on that.

Take a deep breath. No..........MS dominates the UK, NA and still loses yearly. Its been 4 straight years...



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11/20/09 04:25 makingmusic476 Warning Other (Your avatar is borderline NSFW. Please keep it for as long as possible.)
i think WiiU will sell........... like crazy......xD....srsly, 50m or so
by the time 720 and or PS4 sell that amount there will be a WiiU2
Nintendo s in the lead position

Nintendo might not ever recover that hardcore spot with gamers they had in the 90's. Sony rocked their worlds and had a far better relationship with third parties and Microsoft came and basically duplicated Sonys game. What Nintendo needs to go back to the casuals because that is what has kept them above the competition.

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psrock said:

Take a deep breath. No..........MS dominates the UK, NA and still loses yearly. Its been 4 straight years...


I actually see the PS4 being the GC of next gen, we will see.



*Sound Of Rain said:
psrock said:

Take a deep breath. No..........MS dominates the UK, NA and still loses yearly. Its been 4 straight years...


I actually see the PS4 being the GC of next gen, we will see.


Based on what? besides the WiiU, nothing else is known of the others though. 

At least wait until these consoles get reveal, stop telling us your hopes and wishes. 



 Next Gen 

11/20/09 04:25 makingmusic476 Warning Other (Your avatar is borderline NSFW. Please keep it for as long as possible.)
There are some flaws in your prediction. First off, Europe is Playstation land, and PS4 will be the winner in that territory. Yes Nintendo will win Japan, but it won't be like the 3DS. Japan is more focused on handhelds, so even if Wii U is number 1, it won't be a huge advantage. America will really be the deciding factor. I don't know how PS4 will perform in America. That will be deciding factor.


I would wait and see what they have up their sleeves before making a prediction




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Imho it will look very similar to the final results of this gen, with Sony and MS much closer to the U this time.