Conegamer on 01 January 2013
Update-Predictions are now closed, any additional changes/new predictions will not be counted
So it's that time again. Happy New Year all! 2012 was a bit of a damp squid if you ask me, but enough with looking at the past. We've survived the apocolypse, and enter an unknown-2013.
But how will the consoles sell? I'm taking predictions for ALL systems, so that includes PS3,PS4,PSP,PSV,Wii,WiiU,DS,3DS,360,720, but not the Steam Box. It's almost certain everything will be down heavily YoY, but what about the new consoles?
Here we are for this year, full year:
| Platform | Yearly (change) | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3DS | 13,775,151 | (+4%) | 27,025,213 |
| PS3 | 11,888,848 | (-16%) | 72,396,583 |
| X360 | 10,480,509 | (-24%) | 74,249,953 |
| Wii | 5,130,531 | (-56%) | 98,794,054 |
| PSV | 3,603,888 | (+648%) | 4,085,461 |
| DS | 3,531,533 | (-60%) | 153,840,756 |
| PSP | 2,913,315 | (-60%) | 75,772,795 |
| WiiU | 2,448,408 | / | 2,448,408 |
| Total | 53,772,183 | (-22%) |
The new figures, post-NPD adjustments, are here:
| Platform | Yearly (change) | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3DS | 13,993,602 | (+6%) | 27,243,664 |
| PS3 | 11,277,199 | (-20%) | 71,784,934 |
| X360 | 9,806,002 | (-29%) | 73,575,446 |
| Wii | 4,911,170 | (-58%) | 98,574,693 |
| PSV | 3,454,534 | (+617%) | 3,936,107 |
| DS | 3,434,070 | (-61%) | 153,743,293 |
| PSP | 2,915,105 | (-60%) | 75,774,585 |
| WiiU | 2,245,161 | / | 2,245,161 |
| Total | 52,036,843 | (-25%) |
As we can see, heavy heavy falls across the board (bar PSV but this is not counted), so expect the same or worse next year. So here's my predictions (all YoY numbers are estimates):
3DS- 14,500,000 (+6%)
WiiU- 11,000,000
PS3- 9,400,000 (-20%)
360- 7,800,000 (-25%)
Vita- 6,400,000 (+50%)
720- 3,200,000
Wii- 3,000,000 (-40%)
DS- 2,800,000 (-35%)
PSP-1,900,000 (-30%)
PS4 will not be out in time.
All of the predictions are present in the table below (all in millions). Note that the highest predictions are bolded, and the lowest are in underlined italics.
| User | PS3 | 360 | Wii | Wii U | 3DS | Vita | DS | PSP | PS4 | 720 | Total |
| 007BondAgent | 10.20 | 8.00 | 2.90 | 9.00 | 13.50 | 6.60 | 3.10 | 1.60 | 3.10 | 2.60 | 60.60 |
| aikohualda | 9.00 | 9.00 | 2.00 | 10.00 | 17.50 | 5.00 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 2.50 | 60.00 |
| Alby_da_Wolf | 10.00 | 8.00 | 3.00 | 9.00 | 13.50 | 8.00 | 2.50 | 2.00 | / | 2.70 | 58.70 |
| AlphaCiielago | 8.30 | 7.60 | 2.70 | 8.90 | 18.00 | 6.40 | 2.30 | 1.60 | / | / | 55.80 |
| Andrespetmonkey* | 9.60 | 7.50 | / | 8.00 | 13.80 | 7.00 | / | / | 1.00 | 3.80 | 50.70 |
| bananaking21 | 9.20 | 7.60 | 2.90 | 8.70 | 16.40 | 7.20 | 1.90 | 0.90 | / | / | 54.80 |
| betacon | 9.6 | 8.2 | 2.8 | 8 | 16.5 | 8.2 | 2.3 | 2.4 | / | / | 58 |
| Blacksaber | 8.8 | 8.3 | 2.5 | 9.2 | 14.4 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 1.8 | / | 3 | 55 |
| brendude13 | 9 | 7.5 | 2.5 | 7 | 13 | 7.51 | 2.5 | 1.5 | / | / | 50.51 |
| Carl2291 | 9 | 6.5 | 2 | 9 | 17 | 6.5 | 1.5 | 1 | / | / | 52.5 |
| Chandler | 9 | 7.6 | 2.3 | 9.7 | 17.5 | 3.6 | 2 | 1.2 | / | 1.6 | 54.5 |
| Cloud1989 | 9.51 | 5.14 | 2.67 | 6.04 | 14.72 | 9.46 | 2.51 | 1.71 | 2.53 | 5.13 | 59.42 |
| Conegamer | 9.4 | 7.8 | 3 | 11 | 14.5 | 6 | 2.8 | 1.9 | / | 3.2 | 59.6 |
| cuberandgamer | 5.00 | 3.00 | / | 10 | 15 | 4 | / | / | 1.5 | 1 | 39.5 |
| DaAndy | 9.5 | 7.7 | 2.8 | 8.3 | 19 | 6.3 | 1.75 | 1.35 | / | 2.8 | 59.5 |
| Dand | 9.6 | 8.1 | 2.3 | 7.6 | 18.1 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 3.1 | 60.3 |
| DanneSandin | 9.25 | 7.15 | 3.25 | 11.6 | 18.5 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 1.55 | 2.18 | 2.36 | 65.04 |
| daveJ* | 10.8 | 7.2 | 2 | 5.9 | 10.4 | 3.3 | / | / | / | / | 39.6 |
| Deidaraman | 10.4 | 8.6 | 2 | 7.3 | 10.5 | 6.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | / | / | 48.4 |
| DieAppleDie | 9 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 18 | 6 | 2 | 2 | / | / | 57 |
| dividePower | 10 | 9.8 | 3 | 11 | 15.5 | 5 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 63.9 |
| EricFabian | 10.12 | 7.56 | 2.43 | 11.32 | 16.57 | 5.68 | 3.12 | 1.36 | 1.21 | 2.79 | 62.16 |
| ethomaz | 10.5 | 8 | 2 | 10.4 | 13.5 | 8 | 2 | 1.2 | / | / | 55.6 |
| Farsala | 9.6 | 7.7 | 2.5 | 9 | 14.8 | 7.4 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 57.7 |
| fedfed | 9.25 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 11.11 | 13.8 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 1.9 | / | / | 54.86 |
| Flanneryaug | 9 | 8 | 3 | 10 | 14.5 | 4 | 3 | 1.5 | / | 1.5 | 54.5 |
| fmjasinski | 8.6 | 7.6 | 3.13 | 10.3 | 17.2 | 4 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 59.63 |
| GameAnalyser | 10.5 | 7.95 | 3 | 7.1 | 15 | 7.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | / | / | 55.05 |
| ghettoglamour | 10.50 | 8.70 | 2.50 | 7.60 | 13.50 | 5.20 | 3.10 | 1.30 | 4.80 | 4.10 | 61.30 |
| HesAPooka | 11 | 9.5 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 5.5 | 1.2 | 0.85 | / | / | 50.05 |
| Jay520 | 7.90 | 6.80 | 2.00 | 14.50 | 14.00 | 4.90 | / | / | 2.20 | 2.60 | 54.9 |
| Joaco <3 N64 | 9.4 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 11.28 | 19 | 6.28 | 2.6 | 1.6 | / | 2 | 63.26 |
| kain_kusanagi | 6 | 7 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 47 |
| KHlover | 8.5 | 6 | 2.5 | 6 | 21.5 | 4 | 2 | 1.3 | / | / | 51.8 |
| killeryoshis | 9 | 8 | 2.5 | 8 | 13 | 5 | 1.5 | 1 | / | / | 48 |
| kitler53 | 8.00 | 7.00 | 2.30 | 9.00 | 11.00 | 4.00 | 2.00 | 1.00 | / | / | 44.30 |
| kowenicki | 8.00 | 6.40 | 2.50 | 9.00 | 14.50 | 3.50 | 1.50 | 1.50 | / | / | 46.90 |
| KylieDog | 10.00 | 8.50 | 3.00 | 8.50 | 15.00 | 5.00 | 2.30 | 1.70 | 0.60 | 1.40 | 56.00 |
| Legend11 | 8.9 | 7 | 2.3 | 8.9 | 11.8 | 3.39 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 3 | 4 | 53.59 |
| man-bear-pig* | 8.3 | 7.1 | / | 6.8 | 11.5 | 5 | / | 1.2 | / | / | 39.9 |
| mawaxid | 10 | 8.5 | 2.9 | 13 | 18.1 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 63.5 |
| MDMAlliance | 8 | 6.5 | 3 | 11.5 | 19.5 | 6 | 2.2 | 1.9 | / | / | 58.6 |
| melbye | 9 | 8 | 2.9 | 10 | 15 | 3 | 2.5 | 1 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 53.5 |
| menx64 | 9.5 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 10.5 | 14.5 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | / | / | 58.7 |
| Metallicube | 9.00 | 8.00 | 3.00 | 14.00 | 16.00 | 4.00 | 2.50 | 3.00 | / | 3.00 | 62.50 |
| Metroid33slayer | 10.4 | 9.2 | 3.3 | 10 | 14.9 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 1.5 | / | / | 56.1 |
| Mnementh | 8.7 | 7 | 2 | 7.5 | 14.5 | 4 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 2 | 1.3 | 49.1 |
| NintendoPie* | 8 | / | 3 | 11.5 | 14.75 | / | / | / | / | / | 37.25 |
| NobleTeam360* | 10 | 9 | 3 | 11 | 14.5 | 6 | / | / | / | 3.8 | 57.3 |
| osed125 | 9.1 | 8.7 | 2.2 | 10 | 13.2 | 5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | / | 1.8 | 54 |
| Pavolink | 9.2 | 7.4 | 2.1 | 8.1 | 15 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 1.8 | / | 1.8 | 53.5 |
| Pezus | 9.3 | 7 | 2.5 | 9 | 16.5 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 56.5 |
| platformmaster918* | 10.5 | 8 | / | 11 | 15 | 6 | / | / | 3 | 3 | 56.5 |
| retroking1981 | 8.5 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 0.5 | 3.2 | 53.2 |
| RisingC | 13.00 | 10.50 | 3.70 | 7.70 | 17.50 | 8.60 | 2.40 | 1.80 | / | 2.80 | 68.00 |
| ROFLMAO | 8.00 | 6.50 | 3.50 | 10.50 | 28.00 | 2.00 | 2.25 | 1.10 | / | 0.72 | 62.57 |
| runqvist | 9 | 8 | 3.5 | 7 | 13.11 | 3.5 | 3.39 | 2.83 | / | 4.5 | 54.83 |
| S.Peelman | 9.8 | 8.1 | 4.2 | 10.6 | 17.1 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 1 | 2.8 | 62.9 |
| samuship | 9.5 | 7.8 | 3 | 10 | 16 | 5 | 1.8 | 1.5 | / | / | 54.6 |
| saviorX | 6.00 | 5.80 | 1.20 | 7.20 | 17.75 | 5.00 | 0.95 | 0.80 | 1.90 | 1.80 | 48.4 |
| Sensei | 10.00 | 8.00 | 4.00 | 3.90 | 10.00 | 8.30 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 55.20 |
| shawn1995 | 9 | 7.5 | 2.3 | 6.5 | 14.5 | 4 | 1.7 | 1 | / | 2 | 48.5 |
| sniper989 | 9.8 | 7.8 | 2 | 8 | 13.5 | 6 | 1 | 1.5 | / | 2.15 | 51.75 |
| SnowPrince | 10.5 | 8 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 12 | 8.5 | 3 | 2 | / | / | 52 |
| sperrico87 | 8 | 7 | 3.5 | 10.5 | 17.75 | 4.5 | 3 | 1.5 | / | 2.75 | 58.5 |
| Spurgeonryan | 8 | 7.2 | 5 | 11.9 | 15 | 5 | 2.6 | 3 | 0.08 | / | 57.78 |
| SSJGohan3972 | 9.44 | 7.8 | 2 | 11.5 | 15.8 | 5.1 | 1.75 | 1.3 | / | 2.1 | 56.79 |
| supermariodance | 7 | 5 | 2.5 | 10 | 19 | 4 | 1.5 | 1 | / | 2.3 | 52.3 |
| tbone51 | 9 | 7.2 | 2.65 | 9.11 | 23.51 | 6.45 | 2.51 | 1.65 | / | 2.2 | 64.28 |
| the_dengle | 9.7 | 7.5 | 2.5 | 9 | 22 | 6 | 1.5 | / | / | / | 58.2 |
| the2real4mafol | 12 | 10 | 5.5 | 13 | 17 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 72.5 |
| thismeintiel | 10 | 8 | 3 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 2 | / | / | 55 |
| trent44 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 8 | 1.5 | 2 | / | / | 51.5 |
| Turkish | 10.2 | 7.8 | 2 | 10 | 15.6 | 7.5 | 1.25 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 59.65 | |
| VGKing | 10.25 | 8.5 | 2 | 7.5 | 13 | 5.5 | 1.2 | 0.85 | / | / | 48.8 |
| Vinniegambini | 9.5 | 8.8 | 2 | 11 | 15 | 5 | 1.2 | 1 | / | / | 53.5 |
| Zuvuyeay | 9 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 9.5 | 15.2 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 1.3 | / | / | 52.3 |
| Average | 9.40 | 7.67 | 2.64 | 9.30 | 15.66 | 5.60 | 1.93 | 1.43 | 0.70 | 1.59 | 55.92 |
Notes:
- There are 76 participants, of whom 15 predicted the PS3 to sell over or including 10 million this year.
- This compares to only 2 users who predicted the 360 to sell over or including 10 million this year.
- However, 32 users predicted the WiiU to sell over or including 10 million this year.
- Only 4 users believe the Wii will sell over 4 million units this year.
- The highest 3DS prediction is 28 million units; the same as its current LTD.
- 4 users predict the 3DS to sell more than 20 million units this year, with no users predicting below 10 million for the year.
- Contrast this to the highest prediction of the Vita, which is below 9.5 million (the next highest is 8.5 million below this). So, Vita's absolute best-case is the 3DS' absolute worst-case.
- 26 people predicted PS4 sales for the year, compared to 46 for the 720. So more people believe the 720 will arrive this year than the PS4.
- The difference between the highest and the lowest Wii U prediction is 10.6 million, more than the highest 360 prediction
- On average, people predicted the 3DS to outsell the Vita by 3:1. However, the most extreme example is 14:1.
- The lowest complete set of data with all console totals added together comes to less than the Wii+DS in 2007, 2009, and is 10 million lower than in 2008.
- Indeed, the average total sales for each person is less than 1 million above the Wii+DS in 2008.
Averages (with YoY predictions):
PS3- 9.40 (-18%)
360- 7.67 (-22%)
Wii- 2.64 (-46%)
Wii U- 9.30 (+413%)
3DS-15.66 (+12%)
PSV-5.60 (+62%)
DS-1.93 (-44%)
PSP-1.43 (-51%)
Total-55.92 (+7%)
