Forums - Gaming Discussion - Official 2013 Console sales prediction thread- It's Nearly Over!

 

 

Update-Predictions are now closed, any additional changes/new predictions will not be counted

So it's that time again. Happy New Year all! 2012 was a bit of a damp squid if you ask me, but enough with looking at the past. We've survived the apocolypse, and enter an unknown-2013. 

But how will the consoles sell? I'm taking predictions for ALL systems, so that includes PS3,PS4,PSP,PSV,Wii,WiiU,DS,3DS,360,720, but not the Steam Box. It's almost certain everything will be down heavily YoY, but what about the new consoles? 

Here we are for this year, full year:

PlatformYearly (change)Total
3DS 13,775,151 (+4%) 27,025,213
PS3 11,888,848 (-16%) 72,396,583
X360 10,480,509 (-24%) 74,249,953
Wii 5,130,531 (-56%) 98,794,054
PSV 3,603,888 (+648%) 4,085,461
DS 3,531,533 (-60%) 153,840,756
PSP 2,913,315 (-60%) 75,772,795
WiiU 2,448,408 / 2,448,408
Total53,772,183(-22%) 

The new figures, post-NPD adjustments, are here:

PlatformYearly (change)Total
3DS 13,993,602 (+6%) 27,243,664
PS3 11,277,199 (-20%) 71,784,934
X360 9,806,002 (-29%) 73,575,446
Wii 4,911,170 (-58%) 98,574,693
PSV 3,454,534 (+617%) 3,936,107
DS 3,434,070 (-61%) 153,743,293
PSP 2,915,105 (-60%) 75,774,585
WiiU 2,245,161 / 2,245,161
Total52,036,843(-25%) 

As we can see, heavy heavy falls across the board (bar PSV but this is not counted), so expect the same or worse next year. So here's my predictions (all YoY numbers are estimates):

 

3DS-  14,500,000 (+6%)

WiiU- 11,000,000

PS3- 9,400,000 (-20%)

360- 7,800,000 (-25%)

Vita- 6,400,000 (+50%)

720- 3,200,000 

Wii- 3,000,000 (-40%)

DS- 2,800,000 (-35%)

PSP-1,900,000 (-30%)

 

PS4 will not be out in time.

 

All of the predictions are present in the table below (all in millions). Note that the highest predictions are bolded, and the lowest are in underlined italics.

 

User PS3 360 Wii Wii U 3DS Vita DS PSP PS4 720 Total
007BondAgent 10.20 8.00 2.90 9.00 13.50 6.60 3.10 1.60 3.10 2.60 60.60
aikohualda 9.00 9.00 2.00 10.00 17.50 5.00 2.00 1.00 2.00 2.50 60.00
Alby_da_Wolf 10.00 8.00 3.00 9.00 13.50 8.00 2.50 2.00 / 2.70 58.70
AlphaCiielago 8.30 7.60 2.70 8.90 18.00 6.40 2.30 1.60 / / 55.80
Andrespetmonkey* 9.60 7.50 / 8.00 13.80 7.00 / / 1.00 3.80 50.70
bananaking21 9.20 7.60 2.90 8.70 16.40 7.20 1.90 0.90 / / 54.80
betacon 9.6 8.2 2.8 8 16.5 8.2 2.3 2.4 / / 58
Blacksaber 8.8 8.3 2.5 9.2 14.4 4.8 2.2 1.8 / 3 55
brendude13 9 7.5 2.5 7 13 7.51 2.5 1.5 / / 50.51
Carl2291 9 6.5 2 9 17 6.5 1.5 1 / / 52.5
Chandler 9 7.6 2.3 9.7 17.5 3.6 2 1.2 / 1.6 54.5
Cloud1989 9.51 5.14 2.67 6.04 14.72 9.46 2.51 1.71 2.53 5.13 59.42
Conegamer 9.4 7.8 3 11 14.5 6 2.8 1.9 / 3.2 59.6
cuberandgamer 5.00 3.00 / 10 15 4 / / 1.5 1 39.5
DaAndy 9.5 7.7 2.8 8.3 19 6.3 1.75 1.35 / 2.8 59.5
Dand 9.6 8.1 2.3 7.6 18.1 6.4 2.1 1.3 1.7 3.1 60.3
DanneSandin 9.25 7.15 3.25 11.6 18.5 6.5 2.7 1.55 2.18 2.36 65.04
daveJ* 10.8 7.2 2 5.9 10.4 3.3 / / / / 39.6
Deidaraman 10.4 8.6 2 7.3 10.5 6.5 1.9 1.2 / / 48.4
DieAppleDie 9 8 3 9 18 6 2 2 / / 57
dividePower 10 9.8 3 11 15.5 5 2.1 2.2 2.5 2.8 63.9
EricFabian 10.12 7.56 2.43 11.32 16.57 5.68 3.12 1.36 1.21 2.79 62.16
ethomaz 10.5 8 2 10.4 13.5 8 2 1.2 / / 55.6
Farsala 9.6 7.7 2.5 9 14.8 7.4 1.9 1.2 1.3 2.3 57.7
fedfed 9.25 7.9 3.1 11.11 13.8 5.4 2.4 1.9 / / 54.86
Flanneryaug 9 8 3 10 14.5 4 3 1.5 / 1.5 54.5
fmjasinski 8.6 7.6 3.13 10.3 17.2 4 2.6 1.2 2.5 2.5 59.63
GameAnalyser 10.5 7.95 3 7.1 15 7.1 2.2 2.2 / / 55.05
ghettoglamour 10.50 8.70 2.50 7.60 13.50 5.20 3.10 1.30 4.80 4.10 61.30
HesAPooka 11 9.5 2 8 12 5.5 1.2 0.85 / / 50.05
Jay520 7.90 6.80 2.00 14.50 14.00 4.90 / / 2.20 2.60 54.9
Joaco <3 N64 9.4 7.7 3.4 11.28 19 6.28 2.6 1.6 / 2 63.26
kain_kusanagi 6 7 2 8 12 3 2 1 3 3 47
KHlover 8.5 6 2.5 6 21.5 4 2 1.3 / / 51.8
killeryoshis 9 8 2.5 8 13 5 1.5 1 / / 48
kitler53 8.00 7.00 2.30 9.00 11.00 4.00 2.00 1.00 / / 44.30
kowenicki 8.00 6.40 2.50 9.00 14.50 3.50 1.50 1.50 / / 46.90
KylieDog 10.00 8.50 3.00 8.50 15.00 5.00 2.30 1.70 0.60 1.40 56.00
Legend11 8.9 7 2.3 8.9 11.8 3.39 2.1 2.2 3 4 53.59
man-bear-pig* 8.3 7.1 / 6.8 11.5 5 / 1.2 / / 39.9
mawaxid 10 8.5 2.9 13 18.1 3.8 1.5 1.7 1.8 2.2 63.5
MDMAlliance 8 6.5 3 11.5 19.5 6 2.2 1.9 / / 58.6
melbye 9 8 2.9 10 15 3 2.5 1 0.9 1.2 53.5
menx64 9.5 8.2 3.5 10.5 14.5 6.5 3.5 2.5 / / 58.7
Metallicube 9.00 8.00 3.00 14.00 16.00 4.00 2.50 3.00 / 3.00 62.50
Metroid33slayer 10.4 9.2 3.3 10 14.9 4.5 2.3 1.5 / / 56.1
Mnementh 8.7 7 2 7.5 14.5 4 1.2 0.9 2 1.3 49.1
NintendoPie* 8 / 3 11.5 14.75 / / / / / 37.25
NobleTeam360* 10 9 3 11 14.5 6 / / / 3.8 57.3
osed125 9.1 8.7 2.2 10 13.2 5 2.5 1.5 / 1.8 54
Pavolink 9.2 7.4 2.1 8.1 15 5.9 2.2 1.8 / 1.8 53.5
Pezus 9.3 7 2.5 9 16.5 5.5 2.2 1.4 1.4 1.7 56.5
platformmaster918* 10.5 8 / 11 15 6 / / 3 3 56.5
retroking1981 8.5 7 2 6 15 7 2 2 0.5 3.2 53.2
RisingC 13.00 10.50 3.70 7.70 17.50 8.60 2.40 1.80 / 2.80 68.00
ROFLMAO 8.00 6.50 3.50 10.50 28.00 2.00 2.25 1.10 / 0.72 62.57
runqvist 9 8 3.5 7 13.11 3.5 3.39 2.83 / 4.5 54.83
S.Peelman 9.8 8.1 4.2 10.6 17.1 4.8 2.6 1.9 1 2.8 62.9
samuship 9.5 7.8 3 10 16 5 1.8 1.5 / / 54.6
saviorX 6.00 5.80 1.20 7.20 17.75 5.00 0.95 0.80 1.90 1.80 48.4
Sensei 10.00 8.00 4.00 3.90 10.00 8.30 2.00 2.00 3.50 3.50 55.20
shawn1995 9 7.5 2.3 6.5 14.5 4 1.7 1 / 2 48.5
sniper989 9.8 7.8 2 8 13.5 6 1 1.5 / 2.15 51.75
SnowPrince 10.5 8 3.5 4.5 12 8.5 3 2 / / 52
sperrico87 8 7 3.5 10.5 17.75 4.5 3 1.5 / 2.75 58.5
Spurgeonryan 8 7.2 5 11.9 15 5 2.6 3 0.08 / 57.78
SSJGohan3972 9.44 7.8 2 11.5 15.8 5.1 1.75 1.3 / 2.1 56.79
supermariodance 7 5 2.5 10 19 4 1.5 1 / 2.3 52.3
tbone51 9 7.2 2.65 9.11 23.51 6.45 2.51 1.65 / 2.2 64.28
the_dengle 9.7 7.5 2.5 9 22 6 1.5 / / / 58.2
the2real4mafol 12 10 5.5 13 17 7 2 2 2 2 72.5
thismeintiel 10 8 3 10 13 7 2 2 / / 55
trent44 11 7 3 6 13 8 1.5 2 / / 51.5
Turkish 10.2 7.8 2 10 15.6 7.5 1.25 2.1   3.2 59.65
VGKing 10.25 8.5 2 7.5 13 5.5 1.2 0.85 / / 48.8
Vinniegambini 9.5 8.8 2 11 15 5 1.2 1 / / 53.5
Zuvuyeay 9 7.7 3.1 9.5 15.2 5.1 1.4 1.3 / / 52.3
Average 9.40 7.67 2.64 9.30 15.66 5.60 1.93 1.43 0.70 1.59 55.92

 

Notes:

  • There are 76 participants, of whom 15 predicted the PS3 to sell over or including 10 million this year.
  • This compares to only 2 users who predicted the 360 to sell over or including 10 million this year.
  • However, 32 users predicted the WiiU to sell over or including 10 million this year.
  • Only 4 users believe the Wii will sell over 4 million units this year.
  • The highest 3DS prediction is 28 million units; the same as its current LTD. 
  • 4 users predict the 3DS to sell more than 20 million units this year, with no users predicting below 10 million for the year.
  • Contrast this to the highest prediction of the Vita, which is below 9.5 million (the next highest is 8.5 million below this). So, Vita's absolute best-case is the 3DS' absolute worst-case.
  • 26 people predicted PS4 sales for the year, compared to 46 for the 720. So more people believe the 720 will arrive this year than the PS4.
  • The difference between the highest and the lowest Wii U prediction is 10.6 million, more than the highest 360 prediction
  • On average, people predicted the 3DS to outsell the Vita by 3:1. However, the most extreme example is 14:1.
  • The lowest complete set of data with all console totals added together comes to less than the Wii+DS in 2007, 2009, and is 10 million lower than in 2008.
  • Indeed, the average total sales for each person is less than 1 million above the Wii+DS in 2008.
Averages (with YoY predictions):

PS3- 9.40 (-18%)

360- 7.67 (-22%)

Wii- 2.64 (-46%)

Wii U- 9.30 (+413%)

3DS-15.66 (+12%)

PSV-5.60 (+62%)

DS-1.93 (-44%)

PSP-1.43 (-51%)

 

Total-55.92 (+7%)



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3DS- 13.5m

WiiU- 9m

PS3- 10.2m

360- 8m

Vita- 6.6m

720- 2.6m

PS4- 3.1m

Wii- 2.9m

DS- 3.1m

PSP-1.6m

PS3 - 8.800.000 = -22%
3DS - 16.500.000 = +?%
Wii U - 9.300.000 = ---
Vita - 6.500.000 = +88%
360 - 7.600.000 = -24%
Wii - 2.700.000 = -45%
DS - 2.300.000 = -33%
PSP - 1.600.000 = -43%
720 - 3.100.000 = ---



Check out my Upcoming Wii U Games 2014 Thread

3DS Friend Code: 4553 - 9954 - 4854. Name - David

PS3 - 9,500,000
360 - 7,700,000
Wii - 2,800,000
WiiU - 8,300,000
3DS - 19,000,000 (yes, i am serious^^ i guess it will be way better in USA and EU than 2012)
Vita - 6,300,000
DS - 1,750,000
PSP - 1,350,000
PS4 - 0,000,000 (expect it NOT to launch in 2013)
720 - 2,800,000 (assuming launch window similar to WiiU in 2012)

DaAndy said:
PS3 - 9,500,000
360 - 7,700,000
Wii - 2,800,000
WiiU - 8,300,000
3DS - 19,000,000 (yes, i am serious^^ i guess it will be way better in USA and EU than 2012)
Vita - 6,300,000
DS - 1,750,000
PSP - 1,350,000
PS4 - 0,000,000 (expect it NOT to launch in 2013)
720 - 2,800,000 (assuming launch window similar to WiiU in 2012)

I think you're overpredicting 3DS...



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3DS- 11.8m

WiiU- 8.9m

PS3- 8.9m

360- 7.0m

Vita- 3.39m

720- 4.0m

PS4- 3.0m

Wii- 2.3m

DS- 2.1m

PSP- 2.2m



Conegamer said:
DaAndy said:
PS3 - 9,500,000
360 - 7,700,000
Wii - 2,800,000
WiiU - 8,300,000
3DS - 19,000,000 (yes, i am serious^^ i guess it will be way better in USA and EU than 2012)
Vita - 6,300,000
DS - 1,750,000
PSP - 1,350,000
PS4 - 0,000,000 (expect it NOT to launch in 2013)
720 - 2,800,000 (assuming launch window similar to WiiU in 2012)

I think you're overpredicting 3DS...


Maybe - maybe not. But unfortunately we wont know until January 2014 :) So lets rush through 2013 ;)



3DS- 11.5

WII U- 10.4

PS3- 9.6

360- 8.2

VITA- 6.7

WII- 2.8

PSP- 2.4

DS- 2.3



Trickiest year for a long time to predict. I will have a stab later.

Dont Think...


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A New Day....

Around the Network
3DS- 15 mn
Wii U - 7 mn(underwhelming year if exclusives aren't enough)
PS3- 10.5 Mn(will have surpassed 360)
360 - 7.95( will be affected by 720 launch)
VIta- 7.1 (continue to struggle)
Wii - 3 mn
PSP - 2.2 mn
DS- 2.2 mn