Sigh stupid webforms. I said above to SaviorX that he might want to invest in reading comprehension classes as i noted up to 270 MM, not less than 200. Also, I do expect market size to contract. Disruptive technology and all of that Jazz.
JazzyJeez said:
Why are you using the Vita vs 3ds sales as evidence that the Sony brand in your words has 'largely evaporated'? Since this thread is discussing how Wii U will do against the PS4, a console not a hand held, why not use the last couple of years of PS3 sales vs Wii because I'm sure that would really strengthen your point of view. |
Why am I using Vita as an example of the declining Sony brand? Because the Vita is Sony's latest hardware release and shows a continued trend of decline PS2 > PSP > PS3 > Vita.
To bring the PS3 into it; the 2006 release of the PS3 showed that Sony was losing its edge in generating interest in their latest hardware. The PS3 marks another increment of decline from their previous consoles after they peaked with the PS2. The Vita shows that the trend is still continuing in 2011 and 2012. I expect that the PS4 will further continue that trend. Sony is showing a declining ability to demonstrate why buying their newest hardware is necessary.
I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.
I think it all depends on how well the PS4 and 'XBox 720' launch. If the PS4 and 'XBox 720' launch cleanly ,I could see the Wii U selling at roughly the following rate:
Year 1: 10 to 12 million
Year 2: 12 to 15 million
Year 3: 15 to 18 million
Year 4: 15 to 18 million
Year 5: 12 to 15 million
Year 6: 10 to 12 million (Wii U replaced)
Year 7: 4 to 8 million
Total sales: 78 to 98 Million
On the other hand if Sony and Microsoft both stumble out of the gate, possibly releasing expensive systems, I could see the Wii U selling at roughly the following rate:
Year 1: 10 to 12 million
Year 2: 15 to 18 million
Year 3: 18 to 21 million
Year 4: 18 to 21 million
Year 5: 15 to 18 million
Year 6: 12 to 15 million
Year 7: 10 to 12 million (Wii U replaced)
Year 8: 4 to 8 million
Total sales: 102 to 125 Million
wont happen
enrageorange said:
I'm pretty sure you are the one who needs to do the proving. Obviously no one can prove you wrong 2 months before the system is even launching Or alternatively.. Motion control was an innovation, tablets no longer are. Nintendo consoles that haven't innovated have never sold over 50mil. 360 is rapidly catching up to the Wii in America and the PS3 is rapidly catching up in Europe. Nintendo is losing its dominance everywhere but Japan. Wii U will sell much worse than the Wii. Prove me wrong. |
wwiu will deffo sell less than wii, its simply not going to be as cheap as before, i predict most core gamers will wait till the release of the next xbox and ps4
if however phantasy star online 2 is released for wiiu, i promise to drop everything and run out and get a wiiu :)
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| Conegamer said: I think the WiiU will reach around 100mil again, like the Wii...but whilst still first, the market will be much closer sales-wise. 6 years after launch: WiiU- 93mil PS4- 75mil 720- 62mil Dont see Microsoft making ground, PS4 making it back slightly. Also- 3DS- 128mil PSVita- 54mil |
id hvae to respectfully disagree, if the next PS comes in cheap to buy for all gamers it could possibly be number 1 but nobody knows whast round the corner, knowing sony they will have a great product but over engineered and overpriced
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| Jumpin said:
Why am I using Vita as an example of the declining Sony brand? Because the Vita is Sony's latest hardware release and shows a continued trend of decline PS2 > PSP > PS3 > Vita. To bring the PS3 into it; that console in 2006 Sony was already losing its edge on knowing what to do to generate interest in their console since PS3 marks yet another increment of decline from their previous consoles. The Vita shows that the trend is still continuing in 2011 and 2012. I expect that the PS4 will further continue that trend. Sony is showing a declining ability to demonstrate why buying their newest hardware is necessary. |
It could be just my perspective but the more damaging thing about the PS-Vita is that it seems like Sony didn't learn anything from the PSP/DS or PS3/Wii; and they're reusing the same strategy again and expecting different results. Certainly, I don't expect Sony to release the PS4 at $600, but if Nintendo releases the Wii U at $300 a $450 or $500 PS4 could be just as bad ...
Skeeuk said:
id hvae to respectfully disagree, if the next PS comes in cheap to buy for all gamers it could possibly be number 1 but nobody knows whast round the corner, knowing sony they will have a great product but over engineered and overpriced |
True, I'm making the assumption here from the Vita and 3DS situation, and from this gen. If they release a competitively priced console, then the gap at the end could only be a couple mil.
| ninetailschris said: Nintendo will win Japan. No doubt. No question. They will have the best Jrpg because of the gamepad. The only reason the ps3 did decent was because they had JRPG that wii couldn't handle. I doubt we see JRPg in japan costing more than 8 million to produce with the market they have currently. Plus with 3ds being able to to work with the console in some way that will only help. Europe. Europe is going crazy over the 3ds. Week or two ago 3ds out sold vita 7-1. Europe has become NINTENDOLAND. Plus with Fiffa coming to WII-U now they will only dominate Europe. Plus with the Wi-U gamepad your able to play the game with just TOUCHSCREEN basically. This will as EA said up the casual market up for Wii-U and Football game(soccer in America). Plus Nintendo is smart and makes europe games like London games which is good seller in Europe. Nintendo loves Europe and Europe loves Nintendo. Plus look at the launch titles ZombiU which will get a good buy in UK no doubt. Uk will love a game FINALLY based in London. Rayman is Europe title and is loved there. America. Well that one is the odd ball you never know with them. But if they make Wii-U games like Game & and Wario were you only use the touchscreen the Wii-U will do great. Nintendo is king in local play with was a huge selling point in Mario bros Wii and Wii-U. Family Play. Mario BrosU is a big casual seller over time. If they bundle it which I personally think it's to good for but if they did it's over. Iwata would drop the bomb if he did this. The internet is irrelevant compared to the THE POWER OF MARIO. Uncharted 3 < Mario Galaxy sales 4.4 - 10.6 million. Sony showed this gen that people only bought the PlayStation 1/2 because of DVD/AUDIO player. And the fact that it was THE ONLY Third Party system. Xbox took over like a beast once PS3 lost it's third party power. Next Gen. Wii-U Number One Xbox 1080 Number Two Ps4 Number 3 Ps4 only sold closer to Xox because of Bluray which people instead of gaming. Look at sales to system compared to xbox360. Ps3 was a joke this gen and lost it's identity. People don't tell me about BUT THE EXCLUSIVES. Look how many failed. Barely sell in comparison to Wii and Xbox360. Wii-U if being sold at 300 dollars will do better because it's cheaper. |
Great post.
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