I would be surprised if they didn't cut it by atleast 50 buck and equivalent elsewhere.

50$/€ pricecut for both the PS3 and 360 would be nice. In my opinion, they both have become a bit overpriced considering their age.

Price Dorp? :P

No, Sony can't afford a Price Drop on the Vita. They need to make money. However, their forecast would suggest otherwise...

I don't see a MH game coming for Vita in the coming months, same with FF, and DQX is coming to Wii in August. So there's nothing huge coming in Japan for Vita. The rest of the world? Who knows...

Best case scenario for Vita

God of War in the fall (already blew it by not putting Ascension on Vita)

Call of Duty (an exclusive Vita game that connects to black ops 2 multiplayer)

Something for Japan (MH, KH, FF)

Gran Turismo Portable 2 (should really be on the way especially if GT6 is gonna be on PS4 but Sony will probably fuck it up)

Yes if they want to get anywhere near 16m for PSP and Vita. PSP will sell 3m maybe so 13m for PS Vita will only come if they drop the price.

I think they will try to release some 1st party Vita games first, and if that does not help sales they will either give it a $50 price cut, or just ditch it. I don't know if Sony can afford to take a big loss on it, considering how much money they have lost in the past few years.

I see atleast a $50 drop for xbox & $50 or more on the PS Vita. PS3 IDK maybe it would hurt MS.

Without clear numbers from Sony in the last financials, I would say it is doubtful but not impossible.  My guess is that Sony would rather at this point promote the value added/available to the Vita through games and software and generate sales that way rather than discount it.  If Sony is smart, they'll play the long game on the Vita and add value, rather than go for the short-term gains of selling more units via a price break.  Generally, it's harder to recoup a loss that it is to suffer a small profit.

If Sony had been offering costs and sales, then I would have assumed that they were nearing their profit goal for the device and possibly might have gone with a price cut sooner, rather then later to generate needed sales.  If they can wait it out, then they can still sell the unit at a marginal loss or profit (depending what the situation is) until the games/software is there to generate the sales they need without cutting prices.

As you mentioned, they are more likely to bundle rather than price cut, and it would be reasonable to assume the discounted price would be $20-$30.  I would certainly assume there will be value bundles for the holidays, but if the Vita sales tank (they're actually not horrible at the moment), then I think Sony will have to act to ensure developers stick with it.

The best thing Sony can do is stick with its current price scheme, but add value to the device with games and software.  If necessary, bundle to off-set costs, but only cut the price dramatically if developers talk of cutting their losses.