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Forums - Sales Discussion - Predictions - When Will PS3 overtake X360 WW?

fmjasinski said:
To be honest? Never. I am expecting the gap grow after the holidays to 4.5 million.
But, you know, some users yet think that the PS3 will be number 1 this gen, for achieve this mark, it need to surprass the Xbox 360.

Do you think the gap will grow 2.5m in this quarter when VGC sales shows 360 just 500k over PS3 (without adjustments)???



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never it's game over



Bet reminder: I bet with Tboned51 that Splatoon won't reach the 1 million shipped mark by the end of 2015. I win if he loses and I lose if I lost.

A $199 PS3 ends this argument very quickly. But Sony is not in there for that, they want to profit. I doubt it will happen this Gen. 

I expect Sony to ship as much as 360 this quater, so the shipment difference will stay the same. Hopefully MS has enough consoles, they can really put some crazy numbers in the US. But the PS3 is doing well too.



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11/20/09 04:25 makingmusic476 Warning Other (Your avatar is borderline NSFW. Please keep it for as long as possible.)
ethomaz said:
thx1139 said:
ethomaz said:
thx1139 said:
ethomaz said:
Shipment: September / Q2 2012

VGC sales: March / Q4 2013

Using the Sony's financial year (April to March).

Assuming that 360 is going to outsell the PS3 by at least 1 million this quarter. Lets just say that the PS3 will then ship 1 million less this quarter than the 360. That puts the PS3 3 million behind shipment wise. You expect that the PS3 will out ship the 360 by 3 million between Jan 1 and June 30?

The won't ship 1 million more than PS3 this quarter... I expect the PS3 to tie or be over 360 shipment after 30 September 2012 (Q2 2012).

OK as for saying what quarter you shouldnt use Fiscal Quarter since different companies Fiscal Quarters are different. I assumed you meant calendar quarter.

OK now why would Sony ship more this quarter when it looks pretty clear that the 360 will outsell to consumers the PS3 by at least 1 million worldwide this quarter?  What retailers are simply going to say sure ship us more we will keep them in storage for you?

VGC sales from 2nd Oct 2011 to 12th Nov 2011.

360: 1,637,215
PS3: 1,799,564

The next three weeks combined:

360: 2,358,564
PS3: 1,677,057

Total sold in this quarter:

360: 3,995,779
PS3: 3,476,621

Diff:  519,158 (360 favor)

The PS3 is at least 150k undertracked in US (NPD data).

Diff:  369,158

So I can't see that 1 million difference in sales... the difference in PS3 and 360 last week was under 100k (without adjustments yet).

360 won't outsell PS3 by 1 million this quarter... I can't even see by 500k =).

The shipment difference will be lower than VGC sales difference... eg. 360 6.3 million / PS3 6.1 million (and I would not be surprised if Sony shipped more than Microsoft this quarter).

Like every year the sales in the Americas accelerate far more week over week the closer we get to Christmas.  360 is dominating even with the better than expected PS3 sales in US in November. Also remember those better than expected sales were driven by the special BF bundle for $199.99.  

Week over week in NA the special pricing deals are heavily favoring the 360 and each week they are getting better. Week after BF (Where 360 won by 100K) the best deal was $20 gift card. This past week (results coming this week) the norm was $50 gift card but went as high as $80.  This week the deals go as high as $100 (There is one of these for the 320GB PS3 Move Bundle, but that doesnt seem to be the popular SKU anyway).  I expect that next week finding a 360 with a $100 gift card will be easy. Not so easy for a PS3 and these deals in the US will propel the 360 to the 1 million plus advantage.

Still why will retailers simply say sure Sony give us more even though they will just get stored. Last qtr was a qtr where a price cut happened. Not to mention it was followed by the high selling qtr of the year. Taking extra shipments with those factors in mind is a great deal easier.



Its libraries that sell systems not a single game.

thx1139 said:
ethomaz said:
thx1139 said:
ethomaz said:
thx1139 said:
ethomaz said:
Shipment: September / Q2 2012

VGC sales: March / Q4 2013

Using the Sony's financial year (April to March).

Assuming that 360 is going to outsell the PS3 by at least 1 million this quarter. Lets just say that the PS3 will then ship 1 million less this quarter than the 360. That puts the PS3 3 million behind shipment wise. You expect that the PS3 will out ship the 360 by 3 million between Jan 1 and June 30?

The won't ship 1 million more than PS3 this quarter... I expect the PS3 to tie or be over 360 shipment after 30 September 2012 (Q2 2012).

OK as for saying what quarter you shouldnt use Fiscal Quarter since different companies Fiscal Quarters are different. I assumed you meant calendar quarter.

OK now why would Sony ship more this quarter when it looks pretty clear that the 360 will outsell to consumers the PS3 by at least 1 million worldwide this quarter?  What retailers are simply going to say sure ship us more we will keep them in storage for you?

VGC sales from 2nd Oct 2011 to 12th Nov 2011.

360: 1,637,215
PS3: 1,799,564

The next three weeks combined:

360: 2,358,564
PS3: 1,677,057

Total sold in this quarter:

360: 3,995,779
PS3: 3,476,621

Diff:  519,158 (360 favor)

The PS3 is at least 150k undertracked in US (NPD data).

Diff:  369,158

So I can't see that 1 million difference in sales... the difference in PS3 and 360 last week was under 100k (without adjustments yet).

360 won't outsell PS3 by 1 million this quarter... I can't even see by 500k =).

The shipment difference will be lower than VGC sales difference... eg. 360 6.3 million / PS3 6.1 million (and I would not be surprised if Sony shipped more than Microsoft this quarter).

Like every year the sales in the Americas accelerate far more week over week the closer we get to Christmas.  360 is dominating even with the better than expected PS3 sales in US in November. Also remember those better than expected sales were driven by the special BF bundle for $199.99.

Week over week in NA the special pricing deals are heavily favoring the 360 and each week they are getting better. Week after BF (Where 360 won by 100K) the best deal was $20 gift card. This past week (results coming this week) the norm was $50 gift card but went as high as $80.  This week the deals go as high as $100 (There is one of these for the 320GB PS3 Move Bundle, but that doesnt seem to be the popular SKU anyway).  I expect that next week finding a 360 with a $100 gift card will be easy. Not so easy for a PS3 and these deals in the US will propel the 360 to the 1 million plus advantage.

Still why will retailers simply say sure Sony give us more even though they will just get stored. Last qtr was a qtr where a price cut happened. Not to mention it was followed by the high selling qtr of the year. Taking extra shipments with those factors in mind is a great deal easier.

Ok. Just puting some real numbers for comparision.

4 weeks to end of year/quarter.

360 needs outsell PS3 by 630,842 to be over 1 million.

630,842 / 4 = ~158k per week.

Are you saying the 360 will outsell PS3 by ~158k per week in the last four weeks of the year???

It won't happen.

And after all there are adjustments in January/Febuary always benefiting the PS3.

PS. PS3 is UP by a good margin in Europe this week due deals and bundles.



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ethomaz said:
fmjasinski said:
To be honest? Never. I am expecting the gap grow after the holidays to 4.5 million.
But, you know, some users yet think that the PS3 will be number 1 this gen, for achieve this mark, it need to surprass the Xbox 360.

Do you think the gap will grow 2.5m in this quarter when VGC sales shows 360 just 500k over PS3 (without adjustments)???

I`m taking about total sales, compatriota. I really think the Xbox 360 will be the beast in the holidays and will pull 1.3 million over PS3 numbers until 1st january (plus the 3.2 million gap from the first page = 4.5 million). 



Fanatismo não leva a nada, apenas a colecionar antipatias.

Collection: Telejogo Ford-Philco, Dactar, TV Game 2600, Master System (2x), Master System Portable, NES, Dynavision 3, Mega Drive 3 (2x - Tectoy and Show Do Milhao Edition), Genesis 3, Genesis Arcade Motion, MD Play, SNES (2x), Super Famicom, Neo Geo CD, 3DO, Saturn, Playstation, Nintendo 64 (2x), Dreamcast, Playstation 2, Game Cube, Xbox, Zeebo, Playstation 3, Xbox 360 (Kinect Bundle), Wii (2x - White and Red), Game Boy Pocket, Game Boy Color, Game Boy Advance, DS Lite, 3DS, Vita, Wii U, Playstation 4 and Xbox One. Around 800 games. Preferred Generation: 16 bits. 

fmjasinski said:
ethomaz said:
fmjasinski said:
To be honest? Never. I am expecting the gap grow after the holidays to 4.5 million.
But, you know, some users yet think that the PS3 will be number 1 this gen, for achieve this mark, it need to surprass the Xbox 360.

Do you think the gap will grow 2.5m in this quarter when VGC sales shows 360 just 500k over PS3 (without adjustments)???

I`m taking about total sales, compatriota. I really think the Xbox 360 will be the beast in the holidays and will pull 1.3 million over PS3 numbers until 1st january (plus the 3.2 million gap from the first page = 4.5 million).

Yeap... total sales... now 360 is just 500k over PS3 in holidays quarter (and PS3 is undertracked in US)... it needs more 1.5 million over PS3 in 4 weeks to put a 4.5 million gap after the holidays.

I guess most people here are just locking to US BF numbers =(.

I know... I'm a PS3 fan... but that's impossible.



ethomaz said:
fmjasinski said:
ethomaz said:
fmjasinski said:
To be honest? Never. I am expecting the gap grow after the holidays to 4.5 million.
But, you know, some users yet think that the PS3 will be number 1 this gen, for achieve this mark, it need to surprass the Xbox 360.

Do you think the gap will grow 2.5m in this quarter when VGC sales shows 360 just 500k over PS3 (without adjustments)???

I`m taking about total sales, compatriota. I really think the Xbox 360 will be the beast in the holidays and will pull 1.3 million over PS3 numbers until 1st january (plus the 3.2 million gap from the first page = 4.5 million).

Yeap... total sales... now 360 is just 500k over PS3 in holidays (and PS3 is undertracked in US)... it needs more 1.5 million over PS3 in 4 weeks to put a 4.5 million gap after the holidays.

I guess most people here are just locking to US BF numbers =(.

I know... I'm a PS3 fan... but that's impossible.

You need to play some Zelda, man. This would make you:  =)

Hahaha!!!

But, i`m not the truth owner, I can be very wrong, is just my opinion. By the way, I really like what microsoft is doing in Brazil, buy some new games at 99 reais is incredible. 



Fanatismo não leva a nada, apenas a colecionar antipatias.

Collection: Telejogo Ford-Philco, Dactar, TV Game 2600, Master System (2x), Master System Portable, NES, Dynavision 3, Mega Drive 3 (2x - Tectoy and Show Do Milhao Edition), Genesis 3, Genesis Arcade Motion, MD Play, SNES (2x), Super Famicom, Neo Geo CD, 3DO, Saturn, Playstation, Nintendo 64 (2x), Dreamcast, Playstation 2, Game Cube, Xbox, Zeebo, Playstation 3, Xbox 360 (Kinect Bundle), Wii (2x - White and Red), Game Boy Pocket, Game Boy Color, Game Boy Advance, DS Lite, 3DS, Vita, Wii U, Playstation 4 and Xbox One. Around 800 games. Preferred Generation: 16 bits. 

ethomaz said:
thx1139 said:

Like every year the sales in the Americas accelerate far more week over week the closer we get to Christmas.  360 is dominating even with the better than expected PS3 sales in US in November. Also remember those better than expected sales were driven by the special BF bundle for $199.99.

Week over week in NA the special pricing deals are heavily favoring the 360 and each week they are getting better. Week after BF (Where 360 won by 100K) the best deal was $20 gift card. This past week (results coming this week) the norm was $50 gift card but went as high as $80.  This week the deals go as high as $100 (There is one of these for the 320GB PS3 Move Bundle, but that doesnt seem to be the popular SKU anyway).  I expect that next week finding a 360 with a $100 gift card will be easy. Not so easy for a PS3 and these deals in the US will propel the 360 to the 1 million plus advantage.

Still why will retailers simply say sure Sony give us more even though they will just get stored. Last qtr was a qtr where a price cut happened. Not to mention it was followed by the high selling qtr of the year. Taking extra shipments with those factors in mind is a great deal easier.

Ok. Just puting some real numbers for comparision.

4 weeks to end of year/quarter.

360 needs outsell PS3 by 630,842 to be over 1 million.

630,842 / 4 = ~158k per week.

Are you saying the 360 will outsell PS3 by ~158k per week in the last four weeks of the year???

It won't happen.

And after all there are adjustments in January/Febuary always benefiting the PS3.

PS. PS3 is UP by a good margin in Europe this week due deals and bundles.

Yes I do believe that the 360 will outsell PS3 by at least 158K on average the remainder of the year.  Sales in Americas are up this year and down elsewhere. Particularly for the 360. I believe this is due to extra supply and extra deals (particularly with the 360).  So to track I am adding this little chart.  MS will not be caught short with supply like last year.  Starts with the week after Black Friday.  In Americas last year Christmas week sales doubled week after BF week. While in the rest of the world sales went from 410K to 520K for PS3 and 265K to 338K for the 360.  I see that week alone the 360 outselling the PS3 by close to 400K.

 

Week end Dec 3 2010   2011  
Console PS3 360 PS3 360
Total 619,455 665,244 588,757 679,966
America 210,044 400,101 230,898 483,300
Japan 40,153 3,693 39,918 1,631
Total Others 369,258 261,450 317,941 195,035
         
Week end Dec 10 2010   2011  
Console PS3 360 PS3 360
Total 696,487 771,313    
America 240,038 475,200    
Japan 42,254 3,812    
Total Others 414,195 292,301    
         
Week end Dec 17 2010   2011  
Console PS3 360 PS3 360
Total 897,211 1,060,849    
America 390,583 737,584    
Japan 48,821 3,970    
Total Others 457,807 319,295    
         
Week end Dec 24 2010   2011  
Console PS3 360 PS3 360
Total 931,958 1,114,283    
America 410,749 775,144    
Japan 62,944 5,652    
Total Others 458,265 333,487    
         
Week end Dec 31 2010   2011  
Console PS3 360 PS3 360
Total 554,189 472,788    
America 159,941 228,773    
Japan 73,744 4,474    
Total Others 320,504 239,541    


Its libraries that sell systems not a single game.

Prediction: Never.

With price-cuts, releasing in new regions, continued improvements to their services, and possibly new exclusive IP'S in 2013, I believe Microsoft will always be able to maintain it's lead over the PS3.