Predictions - When Will PS3 overtake X360 WW?

[thx1139]

ethomaz said:

thx1139 said:

ethomaz said:

thx1139 said:

ethomaz said:
Shipment: September / Q2 2012

VGC sales: March / Q4 2013

Using the Sony's financial year (April to March).

Assuming that 360 is going to outsell the PS3 by at least 1 million this quarter. Lets just say that the PS3 will then ship 1 million less this quarter than the 360. That puts the PS3 3 million behind shipment wise. You expect that the PS3 will out ship the 360 by 3 million between Jan 1 and June 30?

The won't ship 1 million more than PS3 this quarter... I expect the PS3 to tie or be over 360 shipment after 30 September 2012 (Q2 2012).

OK as for saying what quarter you shouldnt use Fiscal Quarter since different companies Fiscal Quarters are different. I assumed you meant calendar quarter.

OK now why would Sony ship more this quarter when it looks pretty clear that the 360 will outsell to consumers the PS3 by at least 1 million worldwide this quarter?  What retailers are simply going to say sure ship us more we will keep them in storage for you?

VGC sales from 2nd Oct 2011 to 12th Nov 2011.

360: 1,637,215
PS3: 1,799,564

The next three weeks combined:

360: 2,358,564
PS3: 1,677,057

Total sold in this quarter:

360: 3,995,779
PS3: 3,476,621

Diff:  519,158 (360 favor)

The PS3 is at least 150k undertracked in US (NPD data).

Diff:  369,158

So I can't see that 1 million difference in sales... the difference in PS3 and 360 last week was under 100k (without adjustments yet).

360 won't outsell PS3 by 1 million this quarter... I can't even see by 500k =).

The shipment difference will be lower than VGC sales difference... eg. 360 6.3 million / PS3 6.1 million (and I would not be surprised if Sony shipped more than Microsoft this quarter).

Like every year the sales in the Americas accelerate far more week over week the closer we get to Christmas.  360 is dominating even with the better than expected PS3 sales in US in November. Also remember those better than expected sales were driven by the special BF bundle for $199.99.  

Week over week in NA the special pricing deals are heavily favoring the 360 and each week they are getting better. Week after BF (Where 360 won by 100K) the best deal was $20 gift card. This past week (results coming this week) the norm was $50 gift card but went as high as $80.  This week the deals go as high as $100 (There is one of these for the 320GB PS3 Move Bundle, but that doesnt seem to be the popular SKU anyway).  I expect that next week finding a 360 with a $100 gift card will be easy. Not so easy for a PS3 and these deals in the US will propel the 360 to the 1 million plus advantage.

Still why will retailers simply say sure Sony give us more even though they will just get stored. Last qtr was a qtr where a price cut happened. Not to mention it was followed by the high selling qtr of the year. Taking extra shipments with those factors in mind is a great deal easier.