Predictions - When Will PS3 overtake X360 WW?

[thx1139]

ethomaz said:

thx1139 said:

Like every year the sales in the Americas accelerate far more week over week the closer we get to Christmas.  360 is dominating even with the better than expected PS3 sales in US in November. Also remember those better than expected sales were driven by the special BF bundle for $199.99.

Week over week in NA the special pricing deals are heavily favoring the 360 and each week they are getting better. Week after BF (Where 360 won by 100K) the best deal was $20 gift card. This past week (results coming this week) the norm was $50 gift card but went as high as $80.  This week the deals go as high as $100 (There is one of these for the 320GB PS3 Move Bundle, but that doesnt seem to be the popular SKU anyway).  I expect that next week finding a 360 with a $100 gift card will be easy. Not so easy for a PS3 and these deals in the US will propel the 360 to the 1 million plus advantage.

Still why will retailers simply say sure Sony give us more even though they will just get stored. Last qtr was a qtr where a price cut happened. Not to mention it was followed by the high selling qtr of the year. Taking extra shipments with those factors in mind is a great deal easier.

Ok. Just puting some real numbers for comparision.

4 weeks to end of year/quarter.

360 needs outsell PS3 by 630,842 to be over 1 million.

630,842 / 4 = ~158k per week.

Are you saying the 360 will outsell PS3 by ~158k per week in the last four weeks of the year???

It won't happen.

And after all there are adjustments in January/Febuary always benefiting the PS3.

PS. PS3 is UP by a good margin in Europe this week due deals and bundles.

Yes I do believe that the 360 will outsell PS3 by at least 158K on average the remainder of the year.  Sales in Americas are up this year and down elsewhere. Particularly for the 360. I believe this is due to extra supply and extra deals (particularly with the 360).  So to track I am adding this little chart.  MS will not be caught short with supply like last year.  Starts with the week after Black Friday.  In Americas last year Christmas week sales doubled week after BF week. While in the rest of the world sales went from 410K to 520K for PS3 and 265K to 338K for the 360.  I see that week alone the 360 outselling the PS3 by close to 400K.

 

Week end Dec 3	2010		2011
Console	PS3	360	PS3	360
Total	619,455	665,244	588,757	679,966
America	210,044	400,101	230,898	483,300
Japan	40,153	3,693	39,918	1,631
Total Others	369,258	261,450	317,941	195,035
Week end Dec 10	2010		2011
Console	PS3	360	PS3	360
Total	696,487	771,313
America	240,038	475,200
Japan	42,254	3,812
Total Others	414,195	292,301
Week end Dec 17	2010		2011
Console	PS3	360	PS3	360
Total	897,211	1,060,849
America	390,583	737,584
Japan	48,821	3,970
Total Others	457,807	319,295
Week end Dec 24	2010		2011
Console	PS3	360	PS3	360
Total	931,958	1,114,283
America	410,749	775,144
Japan	62,944	5,652
Total Others	458,265	333,487
Week end Dec 31	2010		2011
Console	PS3	360	PS3	360
Total	554,189	472,788
America	159,941	228,773
Japan	73,744	4,474
Total Others	320,504	239,541