Jason Spader is an analyst with Richards, Astley, & Company Associates LLC
"Nintendo's tremendous bounceback could not have come at a worse time for a company, creating an aura of false hope that will lead them to utter destruction that they could have been spared," Spader said.
Spader, reporting on a batch of companies that investors should stay far away from for their own good, added the down-and-out former video game giant among other doomed corporations such as RIM and America On-Line. In Nintendo's case, he states that the company made a half-hearted jump to follow Apple into the budding casual gaming market, but that Nintendo's business model is like a dinosaur: big, slow, out of date and doomed to extinction. "Nintendo clearly saw the market Apple was heading for with the iPhone in 2006, and retooled their struggling Nintendo DS and launched their Wii platform to buy into that market."
But Nintendo tried to bolt on the high-speed, high-profit, low-cost model of Apple onto the console gaming business model. The console world was an environment where Nintendo failed irrevocably, selling only 21 million consoles to the superior Sony and Microsoft with their culturally ubiquitous PlayStation and Xbox brands. Does anyone remember the GameCube? Neither do we.
"By working their magic on casual gamers in a market that was more established, that being the console market, Nintendo was able to gain a momentary advantage on otherwise superior companies like Apple and the emergent Google." But he maintained that the market that allowed Nintendo to become momentarily relevant again is a fickle one. "Casual gamers want three things: Fast, cheap, and simple. They don't care about quality, they just want shiny, silly games. The console market is designed for serious games, and thus isn't the best to deliver the kind of games casual gamers want." As the 3G data plans have come down in cost and smartphones become more ubiquitous, the casual market belongs entirely to them now, and therefore Nintendo will have to retreat.
But Sony and Microsoft have blocked off Nintendo's path of retreat. By using sensible strategies such as the loss-leading razor-and-blade model, Sony and Microsoft can play a game of high-tech consoles for serious gamers that Nintendo cannot compete in. "With their vast pools of revenue from other ventures, Sony and Microsoft can continue to play in the video game console market, and they can and will burn Nintendo out as they try to reclaim the market that they have totally alienated."
Nintendo is not at the top of Spader's list, but he does present a grim outlook for them. "In five years the loss-leaders will have burnt them out."
Monster Hunter: pissing me off since 2010.