Still missing the point

1)Risk my friend, risk! First off, Sony sold the PS2 and the PS1 which was already on the market. They were not juggling two new and fresh system releases, and they relied on third parties (a luxury Nintendo will not get) and a booming economy.Also, Nintendo does not have the assets and the income buffer that Sony has (or had). They will put a lot of money on the line hoping their idea works. Likely, they would rather release when there is potential conpetition which could steal third party support.

What are forgetting is how the market that is video games works as well as what Nintendo's analysis has shown. That is software. Nintendo sold 4 million Wiis in a single month, in a very slow year. So then you have to wonder, if the system still has a lot of steam, why release a new one? Why not just make software. Nintendo has said 2010 was slow for them because they did not have strong software, and they will change that with better software.

Market share doesn't matter as Nintendo is using Blue Ocean Strategy and Disruption. The latter says focusing on market share is bad and Disruption doesn't mention it. Not to mention software sales across the board are down (meaning people aren't buying). Release a new system is putting too much out there when there is no real thread (the other guys are doing better by dropping price)  and the alternative is easier. Your forgetting about software.

2)This one is weird because you say "What you think about their decision is irrelevant given only Sony really know what goals and information they based their decision on." It makes me wonder why we are having this conversation. We are talking about what the businesses will do and what they should do. You have been saying Nintendo should release a new system (so this stament would apply to you too as I've said Nintendo goal is to release more software).

Sony had to cut price because the system was overpirced beyond it's value. PS3s were not worht $600 or $500 in the market. This is a huge problem as they made a system that was more expensive then what consumers wanted, so to move the thing, they had to sell it at a lose.

I've said before that they reason they are continuing with the brand is becasue they hope it will make money soon. Of course, I expect the line to continue to lose. Seeing as Sony is faultering, I wonder what will happen to them.

You are neglecting a lot of data.

The Wii sold 4 million console in December, and was up year over year from March to around June in the US (I think it went down in July). The system managed to sell ~2.5 million in Decembner despite competition from Kinect. And on Kinect, notice how software is doing terrible for the system and is not increasing 360 sales.

When there is no good software, the Wii does bad. When there is good software, the Wii does good. You should be able to put 2 and 2 together to see that compeling software is the key, meaning, yes, Nintendo has control over the situation.

The biggest risk for Nintendo is if they do nothing. Obviously their strategy isn't working 100% if their competitors are seeing ever growing profits and market share whilst theirs is shrinking. I don't care what you think they're disrupting but if their consoles market position is weakening every year relative to the competition it obviously isn't working so well. All 3 of their main competitors are growing stronger every year, thats Apple, Microsoft and Sony. If they don't address the decline of their main home console system they will not be given another easy opportunity to come into the market and take everyone by surprise. Their biggest advantage is their present dominance which they'll squander if they don't release a new system in the next 18 months.

Finally, yes I know Sony screwed up and cut the price. The original point is this, the PS3 sales and profitability are increasing moving forwards whereas the Wii is declining. Whether the Wii was substantially more profitable in the past or the PS3 was equally as substantial loss maker doesn't matter, what matters is how valuable the platform is moving forwards not looking backwards.

I'm not neglecting any data, you are. Look at the situation of the Wii worldwide, the system just lost its steam last year, I don't know how you can deny that. Plus Nintendo had already said that lack of compelling software is what caused the slowing sales from 2008 to 2009, and guess what? They are saying the same now for 2010 over 2009. I bet they'll say the same next year when 2011 does worse than 2010. You notice the trend, it's out of their control. When they use the same excuse for 2 consecutive years you know there's something wrong.
They just can't perform miracles and Wii is way past its prime, believing so otherwise is irrational and wishful thinking. If you believe that Wii is going to see a lift in sales this year based on new software then let's make a bet. I say that the Wii is going to sell less units each year for the remainder of its life, no matter what software Nintendo releases.

And ignoring the massive decline in sales for the Wii  compared to the growth of the other 2 consoles is mind boggling. How do you expect people to take seriously what you say when you are ignoring that the sales lost from the Wii went to its competitors? I think it's more of a shift in interest or saturation rather than lack of software. Last year Nintendo released a lot more SW than in 2009 and quite a few big games, yet sales kept on going down for it and up for the HD consoles. Kinect had an impact on the Wii, so did PSMove but to a much lower extent. 3DS will destroy Wii's momentum.

^pathetic reasoning Tres, you're totally ignoring the software issue on the Wii, Nintendo made mistakes in its software, not because its out of their control, but because they developed software that the market does nto find compelling.

NSMB has been pretty much their only killer app since 2008, everything else has been sequels to killer apps that won;t sell systems (Wii fit plus and Wii sports resort), or games that were never really ging to ignite sales anyways (Galaxy and Other M)

So you believe that Nintendo has the magic wand and can pump out those "killer apps" at will whenever they need to? Why haven't they done so? You speak as if it was that easy. It's out of their control. They tried the 2D side scroller formula and the Wii Series formula and none worked. They were lucky that Ubisoft found an untapped market and their game became the best selling new IP of the year. Nintendo did try last year. They had Metroid Other M, Galaxy 2, Donkey Kong Country Returns (I guess you dismiss this one as well), Kirby's epic Yarn (and this one too), Wii Party (and also this one), Super Mario Collection, Pikachu's Adventure and now this year Mario Sports Mix, Zelda SS and Kirby. Yet sales keep on plunging.

It's out of their control to know which game is going to become the next big thing. Wii Music failed for instance. Wii Party is just another party game. What you are basically saying is that Nintendo needs to make only 2D Mario games and new peripherals (which won't be supported later) to ignite sales... Please try to reason what you are saying, you are just making yourself look bad.

I think the discussion has taken the wrong direction, here.

I think - this is me being honest - that Nintendo has reached a point where continued sales of the Wii are only important to Nintendo as a way to perpetuate the brand. Nintendo's initially conservative approach to the Wii means it's done everything they ever hoped for about four times over.

I think Nintendo is probably focusing the largest brunt of their creative focus in other areas, now. Yes, we've still got some bitching HAL games coming and I expect the Zelda team is as serious about Skyward Sword as they have ever been about a game, but the biggest part of Nintendo's internal development studios are unquestionably looking at the 3DS and possibly whatever console ends up being the Wii's successor.

I agree with your reasoning. I think that Nintendo is already making SW for their new home console and researching the market to be able to penetrate it as fast and fiercely as they can with it, so preparing their new console must be their most important goal right now.

Wii is IMO already past its prime and Nintendo might want to get a head start next gen meanwhile Sony and MS keep on selling their curent gen systems. Nintendo has achieved, like you said, much more than they had ever hoped for, although it could have been way better with serious 3rd party support and less 1st party droughts. Either ways Nintendo is the most successful out of the 3 this gen and they will undoubtedly try to remain N° 1 next gen. Wii's on its last legs, there's no recovering from the decline, that's what I'm trying to get people to understand and they seem stubborn about it. Wii will not go up in yearly sales ever again, Nintendo is focusing on the 3DS and their next home console already, even if Iwata says so otherwise, we know that's what's going on.

I agree. I imagine that the next home console, like their imminent next handheld, will be the single most aggressive combination of hardware and software that Nintendo has released in that space. The Wii didn't get that, and it's not going to in the future.

For everyone else reading this:

Don't take this as me slagging Nintendo or the Wii. I'm not. I've never been happier with a single home console than I am with my Wii, for a variety of reasons. I'm just doing my best to try to predict the actions that Nintendo is taking.

Looks like Nintendo's investors Q&A with Iwata is up.

http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/library/events/110128qa/index.html

Should be translated in English soon, but if there's anyone who can read Japanese and can give us a quick idea, that'd be appreciated.