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Conegamer's Official 2011 predict-a-thon. ENTRIES NOW OPEN!!!

Forums - Sales Discussion - Conegamer's Official 2011 predict-a-thon. ENTRIES NOW OPEN!!!

 

E3 PREDICTIONS ARE NOW CLOSED UNTIL 2ND JULY

Yep, welcome everyone to the new year! Have fun I hope? At any rate, my duty as awesome-thread creator cannot be tarnished in this new year (NO EXAMS CAN STOP ME!!!), so I'm starting off with something a bit different...

Well, look's as though we're on our way back up now anyway! It's almost like it never left . Expect the OP to be fully updated when I finish my exams, so by 28th May.

Ultimately, my goal is to create a thread where the best predictor wins a prize of my choice (hopefully WiiWare gift of your choice!), over a total of 3 catergories:

1. Console sales (30)

Pretty obvious really. Predict end-of-year sales for the 360, PS3, Wii, 3DS, DS and PSP. At different points throughout the year (say, every month), I shall return to this thread, and tip who are my favourites to "win" (i.e. be most accurate)

5 points will be awarded for being within 0.5mil for each console, 4 points for being within 1mil, 3 points for within 1.5mil etc. 

With a total of 6 consoles on the market next year, that's a total of 30 points!

2. Games sales (20)

Every month I shall ask people to give predictions on the success (or lack thereof) of 5 games. If you're the closest in that month, you get a point. If you're within 10k, you get a point, provided the nearest person is within 5k (who'll also get 2 points)

3. Super-predictor (4-20)

This is the "wild card" round, where you have to choose 2-10 predictions which you think could happen this year. 

If you get a prediction correc, you get 2 points. Get it wrong, however, and you lose a point! Will be updated as I go along

4. ??? (-10 to 30)

You'll be hearing about this in a few weeks time. BE PATIENT

 

Expect the OP to be back to its former self in a few weeks time.

Part 1

 Name Wii  PS3  360  PSP  3DS  DS 
 Conegamer 102mil (18mil) 61.8 (15.8mil )  65.9 (14.9mil ) 73.2 (7.7mi)l  11mil  158.5 (14mil 
 MACUSDJACKSON  100mil (16) 62 (16)    64mil (13mil)  -
 ice444 105mil (23)  60 ( 14) 70 (22)  80  (15.5) 50mil  200mil  (lots)
 Nintendogamer 100 (16)  61 (15)   66 (15)  71.3 (5.8) 12mil  160.4 (15.9) 
 Jarrod  99 (15)  59 (13)  65 (14)  72.5 (7mil  9mil  157.5 (13mil 
 Ninpanda 100 (16)  60 (14)  65.5 (14.5)  73.5 (8mil)  7.5  163 (17.5)
 Notorious.A.I.G 103 (19)  61.5 (15.5)  67 (16)   70mil (4.5) 8.5  156.5 (12) 
 MrT-Tar 102 (18)  61 (15)  67 (16)  73.5 (8mil)  9mil  162.5 (17mil) 
 Pavolink 101.5 (17.5)  59.2 (13.2)   65.5 (14.5) 71.7 (6.2mil  8.5mil  160.8 (15.3mil) 
 benao87  100.7 (16.7) 61.4 (15.4)  66.2 (15.2)  73.5mil (8)   8mil 162mil (16.5mil) 
 *Sound Of Rain 106 (22.1)  59.7 (14.1)  66.4 (15.9)  70.5mil (5.4)  12.6mil  161.9mil (17.4) 
 -PaNdOrA- 101 (17mil)  61 (15)  68   (17) 72.5 (7)  11mil  164 (18) 
 Chibi.V.29 98 (14)  60 (14)  65 (14)  90 (24)   8mil 162 (16) 
 Hyruken 101.8 (17.8mil)  60.2 (14.2)  65.4 (14.4) 
 snfr 100.5 (16.5)  60.5 (14.5)  66 (15)   73 (7.5)  7.5mil 162 (16)
 Beulli2 100.4 (16.4) 60.2 (14.2)  65.6 (14.6) 68 (3.9)  8.7mil 157.3 (11.3) 
 Darth 101 (17)  61.1 (15.1)  65 (14) 
postofficebuddy  99.25 (15.25)  61.5 (15.5)  64 (13)  76.5 (11)  12mil  156.8 (10.5) 
             
             
             
             
             
             
             
Carl2291 15.5mil  16mil  14.5mil  8mil 13mil  12mil
Radishhead 16mil  15mil  15mil  6mil 10mil  17mil

Back soon!

_______________________________________

Part 2

January

Winners:

Beuli2 (2 victories!)

Conegamer (1 point)

Benoa87 (1 point)

Notorious A.I.G (1 point)

 

February

Winners-

Beuli2 (2 points)

Conegamer (2 points, due to accuracy)

Pavolink (2 points, due to accuaracy!)

Immortal (1 point)

Chibiv.29 (1 point)

Notorious A.I.G (1 point)

 

March

Conegamer (4 points)

Immortal (2 points- double for accuracy!)

SheepLord (1 point)

 

April

Winners-

Pavolink (3 Points)

Beuli2 (3 Points)

SheepLord (1 point)

Carl2291 (1 point)

Radishhead (1 point)

 

May

Beuli2 (2 points)

SheepLord (2 points)

Radishhead (1 point)

Carl2291 (1 point)

Conegamer (1 point)

Pavolink (1 point)

 

June

Beuli2 (2 points)

Carl2291 (2 points)

Conegamer (1 point)

ExBlackMan (2 points)

 

July

To come soon...

 

____________________________________________________________________

Part 3

Current predictions (correct are underlined, expired are bolded)

Conegamer-2

Xenoblade will be confirmed for Europe 

Mario Kart 3DS will not launch this year

Dragon Quest X will remain a Wii-Exclusive

Duke Nukem Forever will be delayed

The Last Story will be confirmed for the West, but won't actually make it over here

There will be a price cut for all 3 home consoles this year

A Wii2 will not be formally announced ('Fraid so)


ice444- 1

A new GTA will be announced

The Wii will get an upgrade


Jarrod-2

Dragon Quest X will be a holiday release, gets Wii new colour

Monster Hunter Portable 3rd G will be a 3DS exclusive holiday release

Ninja Gaiden 3 will be announced for Wii2 launch

God Eater 2 released for PS3

FFVersus XIII announced for 360, Japan gets 1 year exclusivity on PS3

Agito announced for 3DS

Minna no Golf 6 released for PS3, Move bundle

Sega and Nintendo release a 3rd Mario and Sonic title

Ninokuni delayed

GBA, GameGear, Wonderswan and NeoGeo for 3DS VC


Beuli2-1

NSMBWii2 announced

No talk about Wii successor (Wrong there, by a loooong way)

No Wii price cut (whoops!  Wrong again...)

Skyeard Sword in October-December

Re-print of Super Mario Collection

A game bigger (sales-wise) than SS will be announced at E3, Wii exclusive

Kinect won't have a price drop

PS3 will have a drop announced at E3

DS>3DS

PSP2 announced at E3 (NGP anybody?)


RainbowYoshi-3

Super Smash Bros. 3DS will be announced

A sequel to Dkcr ill be announced

A new F-Zero will be announced

Wii2 oe will be annonced

Mk3DS will feature Lubba

MK3DS will base courses on DKCR


BHR-3-0

U3 will sell 3.5mil by year's end

PS3 will outsell the 360 October-December

A new GTA and HD Resi will be annonced

PS3>Wii and 360 in EMEAA 

PS3>Wii in Japan


Notorious A.I.G-0

GTA V at E3

GTA NGP

All console get price cuts (bar 3DS)

Agent for 360 formally announced


Nintendogamer-1

DQX released by year's end

Price Cut for Wii before E3

Wii will outsell Ps3 and 360 by over 1 mil


Chibi.V.29-2

WSR will sell 5mil this year

Kinect adventures will sell 9mil this year

LBP2 over 4 mil

MHP3rd-700k this year

FFV-XII, remains PS3 exclusive

TLS-800k in Japan this year


Sound Of Rain-0

Vitality Sensor will be released Q2 (Sorry, it's not gonna happen)

Vitality Sensor will be a huge hit, bundled game #1

Nintendo will publish and develop 3 VS games

Price cut for all 3 consoles

Nintendo will release a UDraw game

PS Move will be forgotten (what does that mean? I say sells less than 8 mil)

25 Kinect games released

2 new handhelds revealed in 2011

Apple will not release a gaming system in 2011

Google will release a game in 2011

 

Pavolink- 2

Vitality Sensor at E3

Skyward Sword Trailer at GDC

Skyward Sword before OoT

Wii Relax at E3

Wii Price cut during Summer (I'll let May count)

Vitality Sensor Relax in $199 Wii bundle

Pikmin 3- October

Resident Evil Wii 


Postofficebuddy-2

There will be an announcement for a US release of Catherine in 2011

A new Monster Hunter game will be announced for the PS3

PS2 will remain best selling system of all time

Arkham City better Metacritic than Asylum

DKCR will have a special edition

3DS will have a 3mil seller

NGP a 1 mil seller

Devil May Cry 5 PS3 exclusive, confirmed

New Bungie IP confirmed

Just Dance 3 announced


MARCUSDJACKSON

PS3 will pass 50mil units sold by May 15th 2011 (Nice one)

 

Mr T-Tar- 1

New MH game announced

Paper Mario 3D a higher Metacritic than TTYD

New game from Retro announced

TLS in Europe or America

The Last Guardian released somewhere

 

Immortal- 1

NGP only in Japan

Black And White Top 5 at end of year

Nothing about Bii (WRONG)

Release date for DQX

All consoles down YoY

3DS more sales than any other console first 10 weeks (WRONG)

SS not released before E3 

3DS game above 5mil

JD3 above 7mil


Carl2291-0

The NGP will sell above 3,000,000 units this year (Up to December 31st 2011)

 

E3 PREDICTIONS


Conegamer- 2

Xenoblade Chronicles will beannounced as a November release in Europe

Skyward Sword will release before November

A new Smash Bros. game will be announced for Cafe

Cafe will be shown, and avaliable for demo

GTA V will be shown with a Q3 2012 release window

 

Radishhead- 8 (O.o)

Cafe will be priced between $350 and $450 (we don't know yet)

A new Smash Bros same for Cafe

A new Smash Bros game for 3DS

3DS Pokemon announced (Ruby/Sapphire re-make?)

Pikmin 3 for next year, announced for Cafe

Trailer for Super Mario 3D

GTA V for Cafe

New IP for Cafe by Miyamoto

Mario Kart Cafe announced

Caf controller has a motion sensor

Miayamoto will dress up (dress up? He'd better be in drag! )

No acheivements for Cafe (BOO!!!)

Online for Cafe developed not by Nintendo

Full, playable version of Cafe at E3 (directly against mine, eh? )

SS trailer with November release

Huge 3rd party Cafe support, akin to the 3DS

 

Carl2291-5

The rumoured Cafe controller is correct

Halo: CE 3D revealed

Rare will be mocked

Exclusive content for a Sony console from an EA game

Cafe details small

MS will cut every SKU by $50

GTA V revealed

Some Agent stuff

FF Versus XIII at show

3DS price cut

TLS release date given

PS3 HD games given trailers


Beuli2-0

New 2D Mario game announced

Launch NGP games announced (I'll leave this one neutral)

NGP will be it's final name

Wii VS appears (nope!)

New Wii game announced (Fortune Street? Alright then)

Xenoblade/TLS going WW

GTA V will have a teaser trailer

 

Exblackman-3

New Nintendo IP (Garden game? Fortune?)

IP revival 

Several core IPs announced for Move

New RPG by Nintendo (nope)

PS3 price cut

Legend Of Dragon sequel announced

New Retro game shown

________________________________________________

Results as of 27th July 2011




Name Part 1 Part 2 Part 3 Part 4 (it's a secret!) Total
Radishhead - 2 12 ? 14
Beuli2 - 12 2 ? 14  ^
Conegamer - 7 6 ? 13  -
Carl2291 - 4 8 ? 12  ^
RainbowYoshi - - 8 ? 8  -
Exblackman - 2 5 ? 7  ^
Pavolink - 7 -1 ? 6  v
Postofficebuddy - - 4 ? 4  -
SheepLord - 4 - ? 4  ^
Jarrod - - 4 ? 4  v
Immortal - 4 - ? 4  NE
Chibiv.29 - 1 3 ? 4  v
Nororious A.I.G - 3 - ? 3  v
ice444 - - 2 ? 2  v
Mr T-Tar - - 2 ? 2  NE
NintendoGamer - - 2 ? 2  v
MARCUSDJACKSON - - 2 ? 2  v
benoa87 1  v
*SoundOfRain - - -1 ?

-1  -


Seece - - - - -5  -

 

(Place changes have been placed with arrows on the side, new entries in italics, negative scores in  bold)

Good month for me this one, but remember, there's still a possible 110 points left up for grabs!

Notes

As expected with E3 residing in this month, it was a very, VERY busy time. However, after everything has been shaken up, we have a new leader, Radishhead! However, the top 5 places are hotly contended, and it's still anyone's game.

The reason? Radishhead really came alive last month, gaining many correct predictions (as can be seen above), and despite only joined half way through the competition, has found his way to first. The same can be said about Carl2291. They can go far in this competition.

ExBlackMan joins us this week in the competition,  and I wish him well! 

Overall, a good month for predictions. However, lackluster sales for both Duke Nukem Forever and Wii Play:Motion really hurt the quality of the predictions. This month should be interesting, and with today's announcement of a $100 price cut for 3DS, we can start to see how accurate the console predictions are. And it looks interesting...

 

One more thing- I've been VERY busy these past couple months, and I'll be leaving the site come this weekend.  So my apologies for this. 

 

_______________________

 

PREDICTIONS ARE NOW CLOSED



 

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.

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I'm lazy, so I just wanna do the super predictor... can I?



morenoingrato said:

I'm lazy, so I just wanna do the super predictor... can I?

Yes. I meant to mention if you only want to take part in one section then that's OK, but you aren't as likely to win

Unless I split up the prizes and then have one big prize as well...



 

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.

Looks like Pavolink would like to take part as well, I'll go add you two to the list then.

I also apologise to the poor layout of the thread (DAMN GOOGLE CHROME!!!)



 

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.

You can add me to the list, I will decide during the next few days what predictions I will make. And I need to do a little "research" first.



2012 - Top 3 [so far]

                                                                             #1                                       #2                                      #3

      

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I guess I will take part in this. Sounds kind of fun.



"Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth." -My good friend Mark Aurelius

snfr said:

You can add me to the list, I will decide during the next few days what predictions I will make. And I need to do a little "research" first.

I get worried when you say "research"...

But cool, doing so now



 

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.

this maybe to much for me. i'll have to change my way of thinking. i'm still stuck on full yr sells.



MARCUSDJACKSON said:

this maybe to much for me. i'll have to change my way of thinking. i'm still stuck on full yr sells.

If you just want to do one thing then that's fine. Just let me know and I'll add it to my database



 

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.

I think I'll take part in this as well, I normally come near to last in these but I hope to finally do well!