If Sony or Microsoft cut price, or if Wii sales continue to decline, don't expect Nintendo to sit on their ass and do nothing. Even if they only act at the end of next year to ensure another massive end of year sales boost, Nintendo will cut price, bundle or release a new Wii series title, or all of the above. PS3 might very well outsell Wii worldwide during parts of next year, but I don't think it will outsell Wii for the full 12 months.

I pretty much agree completely with this post.  When SONY saw that both SOCOM4 and LBP2 were getting pushed back, they said "Ok let 360 sell it's kinect now while GT5 gets as many sales as it can.  In 2011 we will rise again and crush them."  Unless kinect gets some serious game announcements early in 2011, it will seem like a fad.   Then SONY will release a slew of Move compatible AAA titles that will sell millions each.  2011 is truly the "Year of the PS3,"  2008 and 2009 were just warm up rounds!

As for the Wii....I bet it continues to sell less and less this year.  I mean who really will want one that doesn't have one after 2010?

Ha Ha Ha !  What?  You could say that after 2009 also but it looks like millions still wanted one.

I'm mean who really wants a  ps3 after 2010 who doesn't already have one

Please, whoever the nextperson who says that the PS3 even stand a chance is, make a bet about it with me. I promise you'll regret it, :D.

ummmm..... why do some people all of a sudden think that the Wii is going to loose the yearly sales now? Because of Move or Kinect? Really? Wake up?

Hrm... well... I'm not so sure that it will happen. For the home consoles, I'd peg 2011 at a 40/30/30 ratio, with Wii getting the 40. If I had to split the 30s, I'd probably give a slight edge to the 360 for Kinect and the continued exposure it's getting. I see Japan being about equal on the PS3 and Wii (48/48/4) until DQX releases, which will cause a Wii surge. In the Americas, for the first quarter, I see a 40/35/25, to 360, Wii, and PS3 in that order. Pent-up demand for Kinect will keep the 360 ahead for then; after Kinect stock starts to stabalize, it'll shift more to a 35/35/30. For others, I'm seeing a direct 35/35/30 out of the gate, with 360 getting the 30. The only reason I put the 360 ahead of Wii is that I think the number difference will be great enough in Q1 in the Americas to give it the slight, but statisically meaningless, edge.

Now, the other consoles. I do think 3DS will be the runaway star, taking first for all consoles in 2011. The margin for this will depend on the launch prices outside of Japan. At 300, I think it will be only slightly above the Wii, and the DS will come in below the Wii, but ahead of both HD systems. At 250, 3DS will have a significant lead over the Wii, and steal enough sales from the DS to put it just below both HD systems. A launch for a PSP2 will come below the DS, and the original PSP and PS2 will be picking up the rear. I also expect that in the developed markets, the PS2 will be discontinued.

but not Santa Claus and Tooth Fairies?

Quite so but this could be said of a lot of things in here.

My friend it's true that PS3 will be hard to beat next year & the gap in Japan will increase with 360, In Emeaa will also increase .

But significant sales will need something extra special to come from Sony side & PS3 is lacking those . Their best hope lies in GT5 hands .

Wii lacks those 3rd party hits but 360 does not . In US market the largest of all PS3 needs more to beat 360 & Wii.

In your analysis U depended on a price cut to PS3 , How about a price cut from Nintendo also, that can turn the table again , After all U buy a move and a sports pack once U buy a WII, U don't need to buy a console then buy a move then buy a sports pack like PS3.

This race is run I say , PS3 will sell well in it's lifetime , 360 will also be doing same for Microsoft , But Wii  (Nintendo) is the winner.