I Believe PS3 Will Be #1 Selling Console In 2011 What Do You Believe In?

[dunno001]

Hrm... well... I'm not so sure that it will happen. For the home consoles, I'd peg 2011 at a 40/30/30 ratio, with Wii getting the 40. If I had to split the 30s, I'd probably give a slight edge to the 360 for Kinect and the continued exposure it's getting. I see Japan being about equal on the PS3 and Wii (48/48/4) until DQX releases, which will cause a Wii surge. In the Americas, for the first quarter, I see a 40/35/25, to 360, Wii, and PS3 in that order. Pent-up demand for Kinect will keep the 360 ahead for then; after Kinect stock starts to stabalize, it'll shift more to a 35/35/30. For others, I'm seeing a direct 35/35/30 out of the gate, with 360 getting the 30. The only reason I put the 360 ahead of Wii is that I think the number difference will be great enough in Q1 in the Americas to give it the slight, but statisically meaningless, edge.

Now, the other consoles. I do think 3DS will be the runaway star, taking first for all consoles in 2011. The margin for this will depend on the launch prices outside of Japan. At 300, I think it will be only slightly above the Wii, and the DS will come in below the Wii, but ahead of both HD systems. At 250, 3DS will have a significant lead over the Wii, and steal enough sales from the DS to put it just below both HD systems. A launch for a PSP2 will come below the DS, and the original PSP and PS2 will be picking up the rear. I also expect that in the developed markets, the PS2 will be discontinued.