My friend it's true that PS3 will be hard to beat next year & the gap in Japan will increase with 360, In Emeaa will also increase .
But significant sales will need something extra special to come from Sony side & PS3 is lacking those . Their best hope lies in GT5 hands .
Wii lacks those 3rd party hits but 360 does not . In US market the largest of all PS3 needs more to beat 360 & Wii.
In your analysis U depended on a price cut to PS3 , How about a price cut from Nintendo also, that can turn the table again , After all U buy a move and a sports pack once U buy a WII, U don't need to buy a console then buy a move then buy a sports pack like PS3.
This race is run I say , PS3 will sell well in it's lifetime , 360 will also be doing same for Microsoft , But Wii (Nintendo) is the winner.