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Forums - Nintendo - The problem of Zelda in Japan

So it occured to me - since I argue that Zelda as a series experiences zeniths and nadirs in its popularity, with the zeniths being represented by LoZ, OoT, and TP - that the absolute numbers for the series are somewhat problematic.

If we accept that Zelda maintains a similar level of popularity over time, then software sale per region should remain roughly the same or rise. Right? Right. Zelda doesn't do this: the best-selling Zelda titles all hover around 7 million sold and have never managed to climb past this mark.

I have seen it argued that Zelda is less popular now than it was twelve or twenty-three years ago because it sales in America/Japan do nont stack up (Nintendo was not big in Europe at the time, so this is a reasonable argument).

Now, I knew offhand that Japan was slowly buying less and less Zelda over time, so I decided to test the validity of the Americas/Japan argument wit quick comparisons of VGChartz numbers for the three "zenith" titles. They are listed in order of release for perspective.

Twilight's sales numbers are combined because that is how I roll.

  Americas EMEAA Japan
Zelda 3,800,000 1,020,000 1,690,000
Ocarina 4,080,000 2,060,000 1,460,000
Twilight 4,240,000 2,340,000 640,000

Now granted these numbers aren't perfect - it's been suggested that TP is overtracked, particularly in the Americas, and that may well be true, but in the first place I'm working with the numbers I have and in the second place the general trend still shouldn't be too far off - TP would be roughly on level with OoT in the West rathe than above it.

Now, we can see the trend in the West is that the apex Zelda titles are becoming more popular over time rather than less, with each zenith in the series being higher than the last. The problem of Zelda sales lies almost solely in Japan, where sales are down to only slightly above a third of what they were twenty-some years ago for worldwide zenith titles.

For the sake of completeness I'll mae a sort list of all mainlin Zelda titles for which we have both JPN and Worldwide numbers, and the percentage of WW that JPN numbers represent. I've combined Link's Awakening with Link's Awakening DX, but did not include other ports or rereleases because I enjoy messing with you.

All percentages are rounded to the nearest tenth of a percent.

  Japan JPN/WW
Zelda 1,690,000 26.0%
Adventure 1,610,000 36.8%
Past 1,160,000 25.2%
Awakening 1,050,000 17.3%
Ocarina 1,460,000 19.2%
Majora 740,000 22.0%
Seasons 410,000 22.0%
Ages 410,000 21.4%
Wind Waker 890,000 19.6%
Minish 270,000 20.1%
Twilight 640,000 08.9% (!)
Hourglass 950,000 20.2%
Spirit Tracks 690,000 27.9%

Here is where the problem becomes really pronounced.

Looking at this table in conjunction with the first, a few things become clear:

1. Japanese sales of Zelda games are dropping while Western sales tend to rise (on the whole - there are still zeniths and nadirs in both hemispheres).

2. The percentage of Zelda sales made in Japan is dropping over time.

3. The more popular a Zelda game is in the West, generally speaking, the worse its percentage of Japanese sales.

4. Handheld Zelda titles don't necessarily do any better in Japan than console ones do (until you count Twilight Princess)

Now, this is problematic for several reasons.

Firstly, Zelda as a series is on a slow slide toward near-irrelevance in Japan after starting off as a second-tier Nintendo game in the region (which is an extremely good tier). If it goes on this path for much longer, it wil end up like Dragon Quest currently is in the West.

Secondly, Nintendo doesn't seem to have hit on a formula for reinvigorating Zelda in Japan. Hourglass was the best-selling Zelda in the country in TEN YEARS, but it still couldn't crack a million.

Thirdly.... I don't have a thirdly. My thoughts are getting away from me.

This isn't a topic about discussing sales. This is a topic about discussing what differentiates the appeal of Zelda in the West vs. the East, and why it's slowly becoming more popular in one while becoming rapidly less popular in the oter.

What does this come down to? Why is Zelda leaning more and more heavily to the West?

Let's discuss this.



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Its still selling well, why is this a problem?

Twilight Princess Ratio is weird.....but how does it look like if you compare GC/Wii versions individually.....does the ratio for Japan increase then? That might be the reason for the odd discrepancy 



All hail the KING, Andrespetmonkey

darthdevidem01 said:

Its still selling well, why is this a problem?

Twilight Princess Ratio is weird.....but how does it look like if you compare GC/Wii versions individually.....does the ratio for Japan increase then? That might be the reason for the odd discrepancy 

It's a problem because Nintendo cares a lot about Japan, and more sales in Japan means more money in general. It's also a problem in that the appeal of the series in the two hemispheres is, apparently, radically different.

The ratio improves somewhat if you take out the Gamecube version, but not by enough to mae the picture any rosier on the whole.



Yeah, i would think that GameCube weights out Twilight Princess a bit, given that GameCube was abysmal in Japan in the first place and all the moreso the further into its life you go. GC Japan was probably clinically dead by 05, and we're talking about an 06 game.

 

Twilight Princess visibly resembled a WRPG, which i imagine didn't help matters



Monster Hunter: pissing me off since 2010.

I guess that's true, but it doesn't really explain why the whole series is on a downward trend there while it's up everywhere else. Wind Waker performed badly too, and even Phantom Hourglass didn't do great.



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Khuutra said:

I guess that's true, but it doesn't really explain why the whole series is on a downward trend there while it's up everywhere else. Wind Waker performed badly too, and even Phantom Hourglass didn't do great.


Wind Waker had a better percentage than Ocarina of Time and 900k going by the numbers above which I would say isn't really 'performing badly.' You have to remember that it is much more rare for a game to hit 1 million in Japan than it is in the west. 

On to why Zelda has lost sales over time.. I'm guessing it's simply lost relevance in the Japanese market.. The gameplay has changed over the years as has gamers taste in gaming. Nintendo may be able to increase interest with Wii MotionPlus but if not then it's clearly a core gameplay problem.



 

I think there's another problem, Japanese developers arn't doing their best to attract new gamers. Younger people; teens and kids. I think that bests explains the loss of sales for everything in Japan, everything is selling to its fanbase and when the fanbase stops caring sales are down.



puffy said:
Khuutra said:

I guess that's true, but it doesn't really explain why the whole series is on a downward trend there while it's up everywhere else. Wind Waker performed badly too, and even Phantom Hourglass didn't do great.

Wind Waker had a better percentage than Ocarina of Time and 900k going by the numbers above which I would say isn't really 'performing badly.' You have to remember that it is much more rare for a game to hit 1 million in Japan than it is in the west. 

On to why Zelda has lost sales over time.. I'm guessing it's simply lost relevance in the Japanese market.. The gameplay has changed over the years as has gamers taste in gaming. Nintendo may be able to increase interest with Wii MotionPlus but if not then it's clearly a core gameplay problem.

That it's losing relevance is apparent, but change being too radical or not radical enough isn't apparent as muc in this series. Is the quality that makes it more and more enticing in the West over time exclusive of the quality that used to make i appealing in Japan, or is it down to something else more problematic?



darkknightkryta said:

I think there's another problem, Japanese developers arn't doing their best to attract new gamers. Younger people; teens and kids. I think that bests explains the loss of sales for everything in Japan, everything is selling to its fanbase and when the fanbase stops caring sales are down.


I wouldn't say that's completely true... as New Super Mario Brothers Wii, went old style instead of new style... and attracted everybody. But then again... mario isn't the norm.

On a different note... haven't they been spitting out zelda's a lot more frequently than they used to. I'm not sure the dates of release but that's an idea



thelifatree said:
darkknightkryta said:

I think there's another problem, Japanese developers arn't doing their best to attract new gamers. Younger people; teens and kids. I think that bests explains the loss of sales for everything in Japan, everything is selling to its fanbase and when the fanbase stops caring sales are down.


I wouldn't say that's completely true... as New Super Mario Brothers Wii, went old style instead of new style... and attracted everybody. But then again... mario isn't the norm.

I never said a game had to go new style to attract new gamers, I'm just saying they're failing to attract new gamers to most games.