John, John, John *shakes head* you are such a grandstander my friend.

Got bored and had to rile up the troops again did you?

Well, I'm going to both agree and disagree with you.  You are thinking too small my friend, too small and too fixated on the Wii and not the industry as a whole.

I totally agree that the Wii is transforming the market.  It is taking the VG industry out of the hole that is the core market and expanding it to the masses.  We have only just begun to see this.  This year is nothing, NOTHING, compared to demand once the everyday person puts aside their prejudice that VG are for geeks and decide that the Wii IS for them. 

Could Wii sell 20m this year and 60m by Dec 31 08? YES!! Will it? Probably not.  As always you put too much faith in Nintendo's capabilities and overlook their over-cautiousness.  Don't forget folks, he also claimed Wii would outsell 360 in NA by July.  Could it have? Yes! Did it? No. Lack of supply.  Nor will Wii Fit outsell Halo 3 in it's first week.  Could it? Possibly. Will it? No. Lack of supply.

If Nintendo was American they'd have the balls to get the financing to do a hostile takeover of Sony. Not for the sake of killing the PS3, but to get access to factories to get those Wii rolling off in sufficient numbers for the storm that is to happen.  But Nintendo will continue to post conservative #, under produce and lose potential sales, even as they gradually increase from 1.8 to 2.5 to 4m a month it'll always be too little, too late and never enough to meet demand.

So what happens?  You're not the only one with vison JL, others see it coming too.  Microsoft already realizes that if they don't start grabbing casuals they'll get labeled the 'geek machine' the same way the GC was labeled the 'kiddie machine'.  They see it and are working like crazy to reorient themselves.  Sony will too, although they already have Singstar, Eyetoy and Buzz, so they don't have as far to go.   They will never stop Wii momentum, but they will capitalize on Nintendo's weakness (Production/Caution) and steal some marketshare.

Worse, for Wii, is that I predict another major player will enter the scene, probably by late '09.  They see the transformation, see Nintendo's weaknesses, see the oppurtunity and are working on their own answer to the Wii even now.  Actually, I expect a bunch of copycats but only one will have the balls, vision and ingenuity to put up a challenge to Nintendo. Be it Apple, HP, Toshiba or Virgin, someone will make a major play for the new 'blue ocean' Nintendo has discovered.  Will they overtake the Wii. Pffht!! No way!  Nor will they compete with 360/PS3 in any way, except for the share of the new VG market.  But these combined forces, along with Nintendo's over-cautiousness will cause the Wii to fall short of your predictions.

The VG industry (or rather the 'video entertainment' industry as it'll be then know) will grow HUGELY!! 600m+ consoles will be sold!! Just not by Wii alone.

 

Believe it!! 

Gamerace

See John, you're not the only one who can make long, crazy sounding posts.

Mummelmann said: I don't want to be forced to play all my games with a Wiimote, I don't like the thing! It's no worse making people buy a BluRay player than making them buy and use an unconventional method of controlling the games. Yes the Wiimote is brilliant for Wiisports and the like, but lackluster at best in many other genres. Diversity is what keeps the market evolving. I think we can all agree that competition inspires better product development? Windows could be bearable if MS had a real competitor. And what would PC gamers say if every dev jumped ship on advanced games? What would they use their PC's for? Mario games? No, the market just doesn't work that way, everyone has different tastes and no one platform can cater to all of them!

 Actually the Wiimote has shown itself to work in every major genre if the dev is smart enough (like Ninty), FPS, Platformer, RPG, adventure, action adventure, strategy, fighting.

 You may not like the thing but a lot of people like it becuase its much more natural/accessible for them you don't need to remember dozens of button combos

Wii doesn't need to be a convergence device or a super horsepower HD DVD player, it just needs to be something that anyone can get into that reaches markets and people who don't play anymore or who never played

 

Gamerace said: John, John, John *shakes head* you are such a grandstander my friend. Got bored and had to rile up the troops again did you? Well, I'm going to both agree and disagree with you. You are thinking too small my friend, too small and too fixated on the Wii and not the industry as a whole. I totally agree that the Wii is transforming the market. It is taking the VG industry out of the hole that is the core market and expanding it to the masses. We have only just begun to see this. This year is nothing, NOTHING, compared to demand once the everyday person puts aside their prejudice that VG are for geeks and decide that the Wii IS for them. Could Wii sell 20m this year and 60m by Dec 31 08? YES!! Will it? Probably not. As always you put too much faith in Nintendo's capabilities and overlook their over-cautiousness. Don't forget folks, he also claimed Wii would outsell 360 in NA by July. Could it have? Yes! Did it? No. Lack of supply. Nor will Wii Fit outsell Halo 3 in it's first week. Could it? Possibly. Will it? No. Lack of supply. If Nintendo was American they'd have the balls to get the financing to do a hostile takeover of Sony. Not for the sake of killing the PS3, but to get access to factories to get those Wii rolling off in sufficient numbers for the storm that is to happen. But Nintendo will continue to post conservative #, under produce and lose potential sales, even as they gradually increase from 1.8 to 2.5 to 4m a month it'll always be too little, too late and never enough to meet demand. So what happens? You're not the only one with vison JL, others see it coming too. Microsoft already realizes that if they don't start grabbing casuals they'll get labeled the 'geek machine' the same way the GC was labeled the 'kiddie machine'. They see it and are working like crazy to reorient themselves. Sony will too, although they already have Singstar, Eyetoy and Buzz, so they don't have as far to go. They will never stop Wii momentum, but they will capitalize on Nintendo's weakness (Production/Caution) and steal some marketshare. Worse, for Wii, is that I predict another major player will enter the scene, probably by late '09. They see the transformation, see Nintendo's weaknesses, see the oppurtunity and are working on their own answer to the Wii even now. Actually, I expect a bunch of copycats but only one will have the balls, vision and ingenuity to put up a challenge to Nintendo. Be it Apple, HP, Toshiba or Virgin, someone will make a major play for the new 'blue ocean' Nintendo has discovered. Will they overtake the Wii. Pffht!! No way! Nor will they compete with 360/PS3 in any way, except for the share of the new VG market. But these combined forces, along with Nintendo's over-cautiousness will cause the Wii to fall short of your predictions. The VG industry (or rather the 'video entertainment' industry as it'll be then know) will grow HUGELY!! 600m+ consoles will be sold!! Just not by Wii alone.   Believe it!! Gamerace See John, you're not the only one who can make long, crazy sounding posts.

 You make some interesting points, some are valid, Nintendo's biggest achille's heel at this point is its supply chain, and others will try to flock to Nintendo's profits, but only Nintendo understands how to be a disruptor in the VG market, how to zig when everyone else zags

"You make some interesting points, some are valid, Nintendo's biggest achille's heel at this point is its supply chain, and others will try to flock to Nintendo's profits, but only Nintendo understands how to be a disruptor in the VG market, how to zig when everyone else zags"

One word - iphone

johnlucas.

It's for posts like these that I respect you. You have the gumption to post long-term predictions and hold them to your word. You don't sugar-coat it, play it safe, or bend the truth when things don't work out as planned.

There are a million factors to consider next year, and I'm not a predictions guy anyway.

Thanks for keeping up the good fight.

Mummelmann said: I don't want to be forced to play all my games with a Wiimote, I don't like the thing! It's no worse making people buy a BluRay player than making them buy and use an unconventional method of controlling the games.

Wrong. This control method is the reason people all over the world buy the Wii, if someone doesn't like it they don't like the Wii. Simple as that. Now is Blu-Ray as critical? Someone could love the PS3 and hate Blu-Ray, does he have an option not to buy one while he can still buy a PS3? No.

All in all, if anyone hates the Wiimote they don't buy the Wii and they lose something they don't like already.
With the PS3 if anyone hates Blu-Ray they don't buy a PS3 and lose something that they might like, the PS3.

 

Mummelmann said: I don't want to be forced to play all my games with a Wiimote, I don't like the thing! It's no worse making people buy a BluRay player than making them buy and use an unconventional method of controlling the games. Yes the Wiimote is brilliant for Wiisports and the like, but lackluster at best in many other genres. Diversity is what keeps the market evolving. I think we can all agree that competition inspires better product development? Windows could be bearable if MS had a real competitor. And what would PC gamers say if every dev jumped ship on advanced games? What would they use their PC's for? Mario games? No, the market just doesn't work that way, everyone has different tastes and no one platform can cater to all of them!

Why couldn't it? If you are now comparing the 360's "diversity" of shooters, racing games and EA:s sports games, you are on the wrong track. Which gamers felt left out by the PS2? For what genres Wii Remote is lackluster? Now you seem to be feeling the same, than people when NES arrived with it's pad, or people when N64 arrived with it's analog stick... And notice that you don't play most games with Wii Remote, you use the remote-nunchuck combo.

Some very valid points made in this thread but we're forgetting one thing the software. If the Wii becomes the DVD of this decade, the most people that are going to have bought it will be the "mainstream", in other words, the people not buying it to play Zelda, Smash Bros., No More Heroes, Call of Duty, Medal of Honor, or any remotely "hardcore" game. They will be the ones buying Wii Sports (Not in America) Wii Play, Wii Fit, and many of the Wii-branded casual games. Not that that's bad for Nintendo, but it is bad for Wii Owners when devs catch on to make casual games and the hardcore games go to the PS3 or 360 or nowhere because Nintendo takes them out of business. Then we're stuck playing Wii Sports until our eyes fall out.

@mummelmann

hmm...so a few things i guess.

i think the diversity in the HD movie market is the worst thing for the market. blu-ray or hd-dvd, i couldn't care less, but i won't buy until a standard is clear. who wants to be stuck with the dead format? the compitition between the two, imo, is the biggest factor in both formats having crappy growth.

competition can make better product developments (i'll agree with you) but i'm not sure that's always a great thing. an SD tv might not be the best resolution but at least anyone can pick up any tv and always get a good signal anywhere. Now HD comes along and you have 720 vs 1080, i vs. p, component vs HDMI. A great tv can look like crap if you don't have the correct combination of the above.

so why can't there be a standard version of a consol too? did 3 consols really diversify gaming last generation? not really, any game could have be played on any consol if exclusivity contracts weren't made. and yet games evolved and improved. so why not this generation too? well i guess i have to admit there is an actually technical difference this generation. however, i still feel that a dominate consol, like the ps2 was last round, allows developers to focus more on the game and less on the techical differences of each consol without worry that their product won't sell enough to make profit.

anyhoo... xD

Gamerace said: "You make some interesting points, some are valid, Nintendo's biggest achille's heel at this point is its supply chain, and others will try to flock to Nintendo's profits, but only Nintendo understands how to be a disruptor in the VG market, how to zig when everyone else zags" One word - iphone

 iphone is evolutionary and very much expected, its not a disruptive move