To those who don't understand my 60 million in 2008 prediction

[Avinash_Tyagi]

Gamerace said:

John, John, John *shakes head* you are such a grandstander my friend.

Got bored and had to rile up the troops again did you?

Well, I'm going to both agree and disagree with you. You are thinking too small my friend, too small and too fixated on the Wii and not the industry as a whole.

I totally agree that the Wii is transforming the market. It is taking the VG industry out of the hole that is the core market and expanding it to the masses. We have only just begun to see this. This year is nothing, NOTHING, compared to demand once the everyday person puts aside their prejudice that VG are for geeks and decide that the Wii IS for them.

Could Wii sell 20m this year and 60m by Dec 31 08? YES!! Will it? Probably not. As always you put too much faith in Nintendo's capabilities and overlook their over-cautiousness. Don't forget folks, he also claimed Wii would outsell 360 in NA by July. Could it have? Yes! Did it? No. Lack of supply. Nor will Wii Fit outsell Halo 3 in it's first week. Could it? Possibly. Will it? No. Lack of supply.

If Nintendo was American they'd have the balls to get the financing to do a hostile takeover of Sony. Not for the sake of killing the PS3, but to get access to factories to get those Wii rolling off in sufficient numbers for the storm that is to happen. But Nintendo will continue to post conservative #, under produce and lose potential sales, even as they gradually increase from 1.8 to 2.5 to 4m a month it'll always be too little, too late and never enough to meet demand.

So what happens? You're not the only one with vison JL, others see it coming too. Microsoft already realizes that if they don't start grabbing casuals they'll get labeled the 'geek machine' the same way the GC was labeled the 'kiddie machine'. They see it and are working like crazy to reorient themselves. Sony will too, although they already have Singstar, Eyetoy and Buzz, so they don't have as far to go. They will never stop Wii momentum, but they will capitalize on Nintendo's weakness (Production/Caution) and steal some marketshare.

Worse, for Wii, is that I predict another major player will enter the scene, probably by late '09. They see the transformation, see Nintendo's weaknesses, see the oppurtunity and are working on their own answer to the Wii even now. Actually, I expect a bunch of copycats but only one will have the balls, vision and ingenuity to put up a challenge to Nintendo. Be it Apple, HP, Toshiba or Virgin, someone will make a major play for the new 'blue ocean' Nintendo has discovered. Will they overtake the Wii. Pffht!! No way! Nor will they compete with 360/PS3 in any way, except for the share of the new VG market. But these combined forces, along with Nintendo's over-cautiousness will cause the Wii to fall short of your predictions.

The VG industry (or rather the 'video entertainment' industry as it'll be then know) will grow HUGELY!! 600m+ consoles will be sold!! Just not by Wii alone.

 

Believe it!!

Gamerace

See John, you're not the only one who can make long, crazy sounding posts.

 You make some interesting points, some are valid, Nintendo's biggest achille's heel at this point is its supply chain, and others will try to flock to Nintendo's profits, but only Nintendo understands how to be a disruptor in the VG market, how to zig when everyone else zags