Mazty said: Kenryoku_Maxis said: Mazty said: hsrob said: Mazty said: They'll probably go for an improved wii. Either way Nintendo have shot themselves in the foot. They may be ahead at the moment, but the market buying the wii will not bother to buy an improved wii as surveys indicate that many wiis are now dust collectors, with serious gamers playing on either the xbox or ps3, resulting in all the hardcore franchises on either the ps3, pc or 360, and not with nintendo. It's hard to see what Nintendo could do as many people who own HD tvs either already own a wii or are not bothered by one, as hd is for impressive visuals, something the wii is incapable of, and without bluray, is still incapable of delivering in terms of media playback. Surveys mean squat, this is a sales site.  Using the following chart we can see the attach rates for the current systems.  If we assume half of all Wiis sold are currently occupying a place in the consumers closet it means that attach rate for active users is 13.36, possibly the highest for all current gen systems.  3,356,679 (+18%) 225,389,182 6.77 2,476,298 (+61%) 537,100,756 4.19 2,227,230 (-2%) 462,739,894 6.68 1,756,176 (-19%) 337,203,923 8.67 579,199 (-3%) 149,120,697 2.61 278,249 (-5%) n/a n/a Even if the abovementioned and undoubtedly reputable surveys yielded a closet occupation and dust collecting rate for the Wii as low 20% of all systems sold, the attach rate for active users would still be approaching that of the 360 and significantly higher than the PS3.  In case you don't get my point, somebody is buying the games, whether they play them or not is for the most part irrelevant.   Does the attach rate include accessories? If so then the wii figures are going to be hideously messed due to the numb-chuck, steering wheel etc. Plus is there any specific games that are being sold? If it's just shovelware, then my point stands that the owners of the wii are not serious gamers and therefore the wii market is not sustainable in the long run. First of all, you could make the same argument against the PS3. Second of all, just trying to claim the Wii has 'shovelware' while the PS3 doesn't when the presented data shows they have near the same attach rate makes for a weak argument no matter how you look at it. Third, because the successor to the Wii could come out years before the next major console and with 3-4x the install base of its predecessors, that's where its true advantage lies. Last of all, I could claim there's just as many people who own a Wii who are 'serious gamers' as there are who own PS3 and 'don't play it often'.  But there's no data to back it up so let's not use those types of generalizations. Well you could make the argument against the PS3, apart from the fact the term shovelware came from the junk games produced on mass for the wii... Yes it is a hypothetical argument, but one rooted in, as i said, surveys which suggest many wii owners do not tend to play on their consoles for an amount of time that a serious gamer would. Problem is the install base, as I've been saying, may not be interested in another console, because they are content with what the wii offers. Clearly they did not want good graphics (360 and PS3 provide better) or media playback, or even a remote that worked 'well' (180ms lag), so why would they buy a better console if they are happy with dated graphics and a laggy pad? Yes again this is hypothetical, but not something that should just be dismissed as the above point shows that wii owners have not got a want for high quality, therefore why buy a better Wii?

'Quality' of a console is entirely based on opinion.  And yours is plain to see.  And while some people may be prone not to like the Wii for its 'lack of graphics' or 'lack of technical specs', its plain to see the majority of people this gen like the Wii for reasons beyond that.

And there's nothing to say a more powerful and better looking successor to the Wii would do worse than the Wii did based on system performance.  Especially if it came out with no compeition.  That's even more backwards thinking.

Except, 2010 is down yoy from 2009, so there is a decline, and with the lineup of DS this year, the decline was apparent even before the 3DS was announced

Nope, what got them in trouble against the Playstation was the lack of games to appeal to the wider audience, instead they launched with games like Mario 64, instead of a Super Mario, and repeated that mistake with GCN, they tried making me too consoles which fail, kind of like what MS and Sony are doing with their motion controllers, this is what got Nintendo into trouble, its also why the Wii is a huge success, because they changed their ways, now MS and Sony are trying the Me-too route, and that will be even worse for them.

Move and NATAL won't establish themselves, so Nintendo can wait for them to flop, check my sig, MOVE is already an assured failure and NATAL is little better

By this rational, 2011 could have a weak lineup for Wii seeing as how Mario, Metroid and possibly Zelda are all being released this year, making a Wii successor even more likely.

Mario 64 not appealing to a wide audience?  It single-handedly sold the N64, which had by far the biggest console launch ever for its time.  They lost to Sony because of them writing-off the importance of third parties and bucking the CD trend which, like I said, was them being over-confident and underestimating the competition.

And to disregard the possible success of Move of Natal is completely premature;  we barely know anything regarding software for the Move and NOTHING yet for Natal, with E3 still to come.  Personally I kind of hope they flop too, but your sig means nothing; NOBODY can know something like that at this point.  There simply isn't enough information yet...

Sorry to get off topic, but with so many people being wrong about the same thing I have to

The next Nintendo home console will NOT use Blu Ray.

Nes - proprietry storage format
Snes - proprietry storage format
N64- proprietry storage format
GC - proprietry storage format
Wii - proprietry storage format
Wii2 - a competitor's storage format

What the hell kind of pattern recognition is that?

I reckon they'll baffle pirates by offering games on a new 7", triple-layer disc. And it will spin backwards.

Next Nintendo system will use Holographic versatile disc and Holographic Storage. I think this tech will be affordable by 2012.

Ah but there lies my point - if the owners are fine with a console which has dated graphics and slow reacting controls in comparison to the other consoles on the market, what could possibly entice them to buy a new console as clearly an improved machine (better graphics, better controls) are not a concern of theirs?

first I would like to point out that Nintendo would be wise to strike while the iron is hot wrather than wait for their momentum has been lost. Nintendo not releasing a new console because their current one is selling great isn't really that great a reason, it is much like saying Sony shouldn't have released the PS3 while the PS2 was still selling in fact it was even outselling the Xbox360 and the PS3 for certain weeks up to a year or more after their releases.

Nintendo would also do well to leave the Wii on the market after the release of their next console to cater to the consumers that just want a cheap easy party console, with a price cut of course.

as for technical prowess and release date, I think that any time from the middle of next year iis possible with 2012 being more likely unless there is a sudden fall in demand for the Wii, Natal and move being a success or a new console being announced (I think Microsoft could if natal isn't a big driver of hardware) as for specs I expect it to be at least in the same league (probably slightly more powerful) as the PS360 especially if Sony and or Microsoft are having success with natal/move as this would allow more cross platform titles with the PS360, this could be out some time next year. if they wait for 2012 or want a very powerful console I could see a console up to 6-8X as powerful as the xbox 360 probably closer to 4X as that would allow for a $250 price tag even if the US dollar stays weak/ yen stays strong with a small profit margin (if Microsoft can sell the arcade for $200 with it's out dated/proprietary tech now imagine what Nintendo could do with current tech and economy of scale will also help keep the price down) I also expect to see at least 8GB of memory built in for downloadable content and if the offer downloadable Gamecube games 16GB and or some form of external storage.

as for physical media a proprietary version of blu-ray technology hopefully faster than the PS3 and scalable to 4 layers offering 100GB+ lol, or possibly the same disks as the Wii if the console is only on the same level as the PS360. Holographic disks won't be price appropriate until at least 2014 probably later.

haha, crafty

Mazty said: Kenryoku_Maxis said: Mazty said: hsrob said: Mazty said: They'll probably go for an improved wii. Either way Nintendo have shot themselves in the foot. They may be ahead at the moment, but the market buying the wii will not bother to buy an improved wii as surveys indicate that many wiis are now dust collectors, with serious gamers playing on either the xbox or ps3, resulting in all the hardcore franchises on either the ps3, pc or 360, and not with nintendo. It's hard to see what Nintendo could do as many people who own HD tvs either already own a wii or are not bothered by one, as hd is for impressive visuals, something the wii is incapable of, and without bluray, is still incapable of delivering in terms of media playback. Surveys mean squat, this is a sales site.  Using the following chart we can see the attach rates for the current systems.  If we assume half of all Wiis sold are currently occupying a place in the consumers closet it means that attach rate for active users is 13.36, possibly the highest for all current gen systems.  3,356,679 (+18%) 225,389,182 6.77 2,476,298 (+61%) 537,100,756 4.19 2,227,230 (-2%) 462,739,894 6.68 1,756,176 (-19%) 337,203,923 8.67 579,199 (-3%) 149,120,697 2.61 278,249 (-5%) n/a n/a Even if the abovementioned and undoubtedly reputable surveys yielded a closet occupation and dust collecting rate for the Wii as low 20% of all systems sold, the attach rate for active users would still be approaching that of the 360 and significantly higher than the PS3.  In case you don't get my point, somebody is buying the games, whether they play them or not is for the most part irrelevant.   Does the attach rate include accessories? If so then the wii figures are going to be hideously messed due to the numb-chuck, steering wheel etc. Plus is there any specific games that are being sold? If it's just shovelware, then my point stands that the owners of the wii are not serious gamers and therefore the wii market is not sustainable in the long run. First of all, you could make the same argument against the PS3. Second of all, just trying to claim the Wii has 'shovelware' while the PS3 doesn't when the presented data shows they have near the same attach rate makes for a weak argument no matter how you look at it. Third, because the successor to the Wii could come out years before the next major console and with 3-4x the install base of its predecessors, that's where its true advantage lies. Last of all, I could claim there's just as many people who own a Wii who are 'serious gamers' as there are who own PS3 and 'don't play it often'.  But there's no data to back it up so let's not use those types of generalizations. Well you could make the argument against the PS3, apart from the fact the term shovelware came from the junk games produced on mass for the wii... Yes it is a hypothetical argument, but one rooted in, as i said, surveys which suggest many wii owners do not tend to play on their consoles for an amount of time that a serious gamer would. Problem is the install base, as I've been saying, may not be interested in another console, because they are content with what the wii offers. Clearly they did not want good graphics (360 and PS3 provide better) or media playback, or even a remote that worked 'well' (180ms lag), so why would they buy a better console if they are happy with dated graphics and a laggy pad? Yes again this is hypothetical, but not something that should just be dismissed as the above point shows that wii owners have not got a want for high quality, therefore why buy a better Wii?

You are making judgements about the quality of Wii games and assumptions about Wii owners which you can't back up and which I would argue don't even matter.  You may not appreciate many of Wii's offerings and you are entitled to your opinion but this 'quality' doesn't speak to the buying habits of the people who play Wii games or their likelihood of supporting Nintendo's new console.  You are using soft data (surveys?) which suggest that these people don't play their games much but in the end it doesn't matter one bit as long as they buy games, and by extension, hardware.

The only hard data we have is attach rate. You are right that the attach rate doesn't mean much when you take a snapshot but (and you'll have to take my word for this if you are new to the site) the Wii's attach rate has been rising for over 3.5 years which tells us that it's established users and new users are continuing to buy games in significant numbers.  Once again it doesn't matter if they only play each game for 5 minutes, the point is they are willing to hand their hard earned over to Nintendo /andor it's third parties.  So what about the behaviour of these people makes you so sure they won't continue to spend their money on Nintendo in the next generation? 

The only data we have says they have been willing to buy games and continue to buy games, which strongly suggest thats they have so far been happy with the products they have purchased and are willing to spend money.  I'm not saying this guarantees their future loyalty to Nintendo or their gaming habit, but why are you so sure that it doesn't.