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The Offical August 2007 NPD Thread (data to be released 6:30pm 9/13/2007)

Forums - Sales Discussion - The Offical August 2007 NPD Thread (data to be released 6:30pm 9/13/2007)

NPD data should be released in less than four hours.

Data covers Aug 5 through Sept 1.

Vgchartz totals for the same period can be seen in my article, here http://www.vgchartz.com/news/news.php?id=526

This will be the first month covering the $20/$30/$50 pricedrop for the Xbox 360 skus, and it will be the first month the new $600 PS3 sku is available (the version with extra GB and Motorstorm).

Also...

Alot of big games were released during this period as well -

Brain Training 2, Madden NFL 2008 (360/PS2/PS3/Wii/PSP/Xbox/GC), Bioshock and Metroid Prime 3 are perhaps the most notable games likely to make the top ten.

If you assume that three Madden versions (likely PS2, 360 and PS3) made the top ten, and that Wii Play/Metroid Prime 3/Bioshock made the top ten with sales north of 200k, that leaves four open spots for sales between 100k and 200k.  I'd imagine one spot will go to Pokemon, one spot to Guitar Hero 2 (i'd guess it sold pretty well with the $279 Xbox 360), one spot to Mario Strikers, and one spot to either Lair or Warhawk (I'd guess Lair).

In essence, I'd look for something like this

1) Madden (360 or PS2)

2) Madden (PS2 or 360)

3) Bioshock (360)

4) Madden (PS3)

5) Wii Play (Wii)

6) Metroid Prime 3 (Wii)

7) Guitar Hero 2 (360)

8) Lair (PS3)

9) Pokemon Diamond (DS)

10) Mario Strikers (Wii)

I expect US NPD hardware to be...

380k-480k DS

350k-400k Wii

240-280k Xbox 360

200-250k PSP

185-225k PS2

130-160k PS3

70-100k GBA

 



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

Since MS already said Madden is likely to sell more on 360 than PS2 and PS3 combined..I highly doubt PS2 Madden will be #1..just a minor quibble.

I'm looking for well above expected 360 hardware sales, myself. 300,000+



I think MP3 has been well underestimated by VGC. We'll know soon Genghis.



300k was my prediction back when I first heard about the price cut.

But then I thought about it.

a $100 reduction on the 60 gig PS3 price drop resulted in 2x the amount of sales for PS3.

360 sold 170k in the USA in July by NPD.

If was a $100 price drop across the board I think you'd see sales around 340k.

But at most, it was a $50 price drop.  Honestly, if you're willing to pay $480 for an Elite does it really make a difference if it is now $450?  Is there anyone that wealthy who could be so cheap?  I mean if you wanted an Elite and were waiting for Madden or Bioshock it makes sense...but otherwise I don't expect much of a bump there.

Getting the basic sku at $279 is a good deal for the small market who wants a 360 without all the bells and whistles.  But I don't think it is hugely beneficial.

So that leaves the drop from $400-$350.  If a $100 price drop = 2x sales, then I expect a $50 price drop = 1.5x sales.

So 170k x 1.5 = 255k.  I don't see quite a 1.5x increase though, because the lesser price drops on the other skus lower the increase ratio slightly.  However, that lesser price drop is in turn offset by Madden/Blue Dragon/Bioshock.

That is why I think 360 did 260k in August.  Sales will jump north of 300k in Sept - the question is by how much.

 

 



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

Is this a new trend for NPD? I thought they usually released their data on or around the 20th?



I hate trolls.

Systems I currently own:  360, PS3, Wii, DS Lite (2)
Systems I've owned: PS2, PS1, Dreamcast, Saturn, 3DO, Genesis, Gamecube, N64, SNES, NES, GBA, GB, C64, Amiga, Atari 2600 and 5200, Sega Game Gear, Vectrex, Intellivision, Pong.  Yes, Pong.

It seems so soon. I guess it is because last data was delayed a week.
Also, wasn't Canadian data supposed to be released yesterday?



intresting to see to see weather it will be ds or wii for number 1



Kn, I believe they try to release the numbers two weeks after the npd period ends, but sometimes they experience delays and push it back.

I wonder how close VGC will be. Hopefully within 10%.

TheSource, do you know when Canada's numbers will be released?



i fail to understand why NPD just doesn't include canada within the numbers, it is NA afterall. it gives a much clearer image of what is going on in the continent imo.

on topic, yes i also think mp3 has been slighthly undertracked, but we'll see.



Neos - "If I'm posting in this thread it's just for the lulz."
Tag by the one and only Fkusumot!


 

btw, what time is 6:30 for europe?



Neos - "If I'm posting in this thread it's just for the lulz."
Tag by the one and only Fkusumot!