300k was my prediction back when I first heard about the price cut.
But then I thought about it.
a $100 reduction on the 60 gig PS3 price drop resulted in 2x the amount of sales for PS3.
360 sold 170k in the USA in July by NPD.
If was a $100 price drop across the board I think you'd see sales around 340k.
But at most, it was a $50 price drop. Honestly, if you're willing to pay $480 for an Elite does it really make a difference if it is now $450? Is there anyone that wealthy who could be so cheap? I mean if you wanted an Elite and were waiting for Madden or Bioshock it makes sense...but otherwise I don't expect much of a bump there.
Getting the basic sku at $279 is a good deal for the small market who wants a 360 without all the bells and whistles. But I don't think it is hugely beneficial.
So that leaves the drop from $400-$350. If a $100 price drop = 2x sales, then I expect a $50 price drop = 1.5x sales.
So 170k x 1.5 = 255k. I don't see quite a 1.5x increase though, because the lesser price drops on the other skus lower the increase ratio slightly. However, that lesser price drop is in turn offset by Madden/Blue Dragon/Bioshock.
That is why I think 360 did 260k in August. Sales will jump north of 300k in Sept - the question is by how much.
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu