Here is my article on June NPD data and hardware. http://www.vgchartz.com/news/news.php?id=421
I have included a bevy of other information in this post however, so if you want more data, keep reading.
My expectations for USA NPD June (a 5 week month vs. 4 week May)
DS - 520k
Wii - 425k
PSP - 240k
PS2 - 225k
X360 - 185k
PS3 - 95k
GBA - 90k
GC - 10k
Below is historical and current data...
We begin with a look back at May sales:
May US NPD | May Can NPD | May total NPD | can/total sales | |
DS | 423,000 | 35,900 | 458,900 | 7.80% |
Wii | 338,000 | 37,300 | 375,300 | 9.90% |
Xbox 360 | 155,000 | 12,300 | 167,300 | 7.40% |
PS2 | 187,765 | 18,200 | 205,965 | 8.80% |
PSP | 221,120 | 15,000 | 236,120 | 6.40% |
PS3 | 81,000 | 6,500 | 87,500 | 7.40% |
Compare changes in Canadian data (note May was 4 weeks, June is 5 for both USA & Canadian data):
May Can NPD | June Canada NPD | |
DS | 35,900 | 45,700 |
Wii | 37,300 | 53,000 |
Xbox 360 | 12,300 | 13,500 |
PS2 | 18,200 | 21,000 |
PSP | 15,000 | 18,500 |
PS3 | 6,500 | 6,500 |
Using the percentages Canadian May NPD accounted for out of Canadian May NPD + American May NPD, and the rate of increase/decrease in sales for each piece of hardware in Canada from May to June on a weekly basis, I expect totals to look like this for NPD June (USA + Canada)
June US Est. | NPD Can. Actual | June Total | |
DS | 538,422 | 45,700 | 584,122 |
Wii | 426,960 | 53,000 | 479,960 |
Xbox 360 | 189,351 | 13,500 | 202,851 |
PS2 | 216,632 | 21,000 | 237,632 |
PSP | 272,813 | 18,500 | 291,313 |
PS3 | 81,000 | 6,500 | 87,500 |
The bolded figures are within 10% of what Vgchartz has over the same period. Italicized figures are within 20% over the same period. For easy comparison, below are the VGChartz totals +/- 10%
VGC Total June | NPD = (VGC)(.9) | NPD = (VGC)(1.1) | |
DS | 503,456 | 453,110 | 553,802 |
Wii | 429,371 | 386,434 | 472,308 |
PSP | 267,567 | 240,810 | 294,324 |
PS2 | 243,580 | 219,222 | 267,938 |
Xbox 360 | 211,781 | 190,603 | 232,959 |
GBA | 94,988 | 85,489 | 104,487 |
PS3 | 95,398 | 85,858 | 104,938 |
GC | 13,234 | 11,911 | 14,557 |
In the United States, Pachter & The Sim Exchange expect the following ( http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=14709 ):
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Pachter has made the following predictions on a publisher by publisher basis:
- Activision -- $80 million, +129% from 2006.
- Atari -- $3 million, -53% from 2006.
- Electronic Arts -- $65 million, -11% from 2006.
- Majesco -- $4 million, -37% from 2006.
- Midway -- $7 million, -15% from 2006.
- Take-Two -- $40 million, +6% from 2006.
- THQ -- $35 million, -19% from 2006.
- Ubisoft -- $24 million, -1% from 2006.
On a platform basis, Pachter offered the following predictions, including a more than 4 to 1 outpacing of the Wii compared with the PlayStation 3, despite continuing hardware shortages:
- Wii - 435,000
- PS3 - 100,000
- Xbox 360 - 200,000
- PS2 - 235,000
- PSP - 250,000
- DS - 550,000
- GBA - 90,000
Fantasy video game prediction market simExchange, which aggregates predictions from multiple users of its service, has similarly offered its hardware predictions at the following rates:
- Nintendo DS - 510,000
- Wii - 433,000
- PSP - 273,000
- Xbox 360 - 191,000
- Playstation 3 - 101,000
For the first time, simExchange is also offering a forecast of ten top selling titles for the month of June, including the following:
- Forza Motorsport 2 (Xbox 360) 192K copies
- Mario Party 8 (Wii) 329K copies
- The Darkness (PS3) 67K copies
- The Darkness (Xbox 360) 140K copies
- Pokemon Battle Revolution (Wii) 171K copies
- Big Brain Academy (Wii) 107K copies
- Transformers: The Game (PS2) 102K copies
- Transformers: The Game (Xbox 360) 90K copies
- Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (PS2) 142K copies
- Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Xbox 360) 59K copies
The games listed by simExchange were chosen specifically for forecasting by the group, and are not necessarily meant to represent the top ten sellers of the month.
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Once again, data will be available June 23 at 6:30 pm or so EST. Feel free to guess what you think will happen...
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu