PAOerfulone said: Week 44 Numbers have just been posted. This week saw the launch of Luigi's Mansion 3 + the Pokemon Sword/Shield edition of the Switch Lite.
Furthermore, the Switch was adjusted up due to Nintendo's recent announcement of 10 million units sold in Japan as of November 3rd. Thanks to these adjustments, I did more calculations and found that the Switch is currently on track to sell roughly 22,178,989 units in 2019. |
At this point, I am not sure what Switch will sell this year, because I think they will be in short supply. All of our calculations are based on figuring out demand. What about supply? How do we know how much Nintendo will manufacture? We don't.
I say this, because Nintendo has stayed with their very conservative 18m for the current fiscal year. Even without the wildcard Ring Fit Adventure they were going to sell more than that. The last half of the year has been full of hit games plus a Lite model. I can say that in North America what is happening is that there are a ton of kids out there that have been begging their moms for months for a Switch because of Mario Maker 2, Link's Awakening, Luigi's Mansion 3 and most of all Pokemon (not to mention Mario Kart, Smash Bros, BotW, etc...). And all of these moms have had to say, "wait til Christmas" about a million times. Now that they can buy their kid a $200 Switch that will shut them up they are definitely going to do it.
So I think Switch is going to be in short supply in Japan and NA these holidays. Europe should be fine, but in the first two regions Switch is going to be the "must have" item this holiday. Nintendo is being too conservative, and I think supplies will be too short.