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Forums - Sales Discussion - NPD January: X360 #1 270k, 49% share, PS3 > Wii = 281k Combined

MaulerX on 12 February 2012
amaral_slb said:
You know what is pathetic MaulerX?

Is that people like you keep saying the same BS about this non issue. You know what is a fact in GAF? That the 360 outshipped the PS3. You know what is a fact in VGC? That the 360 outshipped the PS3.

Do you happen to know what we do here in this site? We track sales
So for this site purposes who wins, the one that ships more consoles or the one that sells more consoles?
Shipped? What are you doing in this site then? If you just want to know official shipped data you can go anywhere and wait for financial reports each Q, no need to be in here.

But you know what is more pathetic MaulerX?

Is that on a thread about NPD numbers for January 2012 we have people in here talking about who won what in 2011, that is pathetic


I sense alot of hurt in your words. LOL. Yes, we track sales here, you know, I somehow did not know that.... Seriously, I bring a valid argument in bringing up the FACT that this sites numbers are NOT 100% accurate. I come here because it's fun to "guesstimate" whats doing what. I find the community and folks to be great. But that does not mean I am obligated to take VGC numbers like absolute truth. Sorry, I'm not a blind sheep, and if you don't like it, keep moaning.



Zlejedi on 12 February 2012
Petrae said:
amaral_slb said:

 But at the same time I understand some doubting, just from a 3DS stand point. Don´t you think that a brand "new" console, should not suffer this much when it comes to sales in January? We can´t blame bad sales on old hardware and see 3Ds doing some mediocre numbers.

At the same time ioi said earlier they have no intention in making any adjustments to January data based on this, so, he knows something we don´t, so maybe questioning NPD numbers might be legit.


I posit that there are several potential factors in the pullback in 3DS unit sales. 

First, no new software tends to hurt consumer interest. There was next to nothing (for ALL platforms, of course), so consumers aren't driven to retail to spend money if there's nothing new to see. Secondly, I think that Vita *may* be a wild card. With the release so close, it's possible that some consumers are still on the fence about whether to go 3DS or Vita. Next, weather patterns in the USA were generally mild for January, leading to more outside activity and less sedentary activity. Lastly, I think that consumers pulled back on spending overall as they paid down holiday debt and awaited potential disposable income via tax refunds for Feb/Mar. 

That's my $.02, anyway.

What time do tax refunds arrive in US ? Is it end of February/early March ? I wonder if Sony had that in mind when setting release date



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amaral_slb on 12 February 2012


bonkers555 on 12 February 2012

VGchartz have became a very sad site to visit lately. Arguing over the same shit in every thread.



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Argh_College on 12 February 2012

Wii : 120K

How the mighty has fallen.



enrageorange on 12 February 2012

Some software insight

http://blogs.ft.com/fttechhub/2012/02/call-of-duty-takes-big-january-hit/#axzz1mB6fgIbp

MW3 sold 386k this january. Compared to black ops selling over 750k last January. Very very big decline. Especially considering last year 3 games sold over 450k in January. This also means Just Dance 3 is down a lot from Just Dance 2 last January. Last year Just Dance 2 outsold Dead Space 2 which sold over 450k. This year it is behind MW3 which sold 386k.

For comparision Vgchartz has

MW3 at around 448k across all 4 systems.

Just Dance 3 at about 415k across 3 systems.

So these two games are slightly overtracked according to npd.

Everything else is well below 386k according to vgchartz so can't really say anything about them

Also according to the article MW3 is now on par with black ops in terms of alligned sales while vgchartz has it 13.1mil and black ops at the end of last January at 11.7mil. So according to npd either black ops is around 1mil undertracked or mw3 is around 1mil overtracked, or somecombination of black ops undertracked and mw3 overtracked.



ZaneWane on 12 February 2012

dont know why some are derailing but it well known fact xbox was best selling console last year



Petrae on 12 February 2012
Zlejedi said:

What time do tax refunds arrive in US ? Is it end of February/early March ? I wonder if Sony had that in mind when setting release date

Most W-2 wage forms (necessary for tax filing and refund purposes) are received by late January. This usually leads to refunds starting to roll in by early-mid February and rolling for a 4-6 week stretch. It's possible to argue that Sony had this in mind when setting the release date, but I don't believe that we'd get any confirmation from Sony on that. Might be a happy coincidence-- much like the temporary $20 price cut for 3DS at select chains-- more than anything else.



outlawauron on 12 February 2012
ZaneWane said:
dont know why some are derailing but it well known fact xbox was best selling console last year

And the cycle continues. Seriously. I don't like reporting people, but this discussion must end.



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Hyruken on 12 February 2012
DirtyP2002 said:
thismeintiel said:
DirtyP2002 said:
kowenicki said:
ioi said:
drkohler said:
D-Joe said:
http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/40227/Analyst_questions_validity_of_unusual_January_NPD_results.php
The group confirmed to Gamasutra, however, that Wal-Mart POS data was not included in the January report, and thus did not affect this month's software sales figures.

so NPD starting include Wal-Mart this month?

NPD has always estimated Wal-mart numbers (with historic data, other means, and current trends). Still, the numbers are within 5% of exact sales, don't expect any magic additions to them.

I've heard of cases where NPD have a game at 50k while the publisher has confirmed sell-through of 200k so their tracking really isn't as accurate (especially at the lower end) as people like to think. Clearly the addition of Walmart will help this considerably.

On topic, I also find these figures very hard to digest - the market is down surely but both for December and January NPD have showed data that is 40%+ down on previous years which makes little sense when compared to other markets like the UK and when compared to all of the months prior to December. It does come across as though NPD have changed their tracking methods or are making adjustments for something. For Pachter to publicly question it then that should certainly raise some serious doubts.

We certainly have no intention of making and adjustments to our data for January.

Its all a bit mysterious but the end of March numbers from the manufacturers will show for sure what the real situiation is.  If NPD are to be believed then shipments will be next to nothing.  Supply would be more than enough already.


this. If MS ships more than 600k this quarter, all the "overshipped!!" arguements were just wrong

Don't you think that's a low number, especially considering MS usually ships ~1.5-1.7 million in Q1?  Now, if they ship less than 1.5, then you can say they "overshipped" slightly in Q4 2011.  Of course, I think the difference will be minimal.  Retailers may have misjudged demand a little in Q4, but the big difference in shipments/sales mostly comes from having to ship an extra ~1 million or so units in Q1 2011 to make up for low stock at the end of 2010.

gap between PS3 and Xbox 360 in 2011: 800k in Xbox 360s favour.
According to you and some other people here, PS3 still won 2011. So we need at least 800k less in Q1 2012 (calender year!) than the usual shipments. That would bring the number down to 700k - 900k. With such bad sales in NA according to NPD we are massively down compared to previous Q1 (calender year!). 600k is an optimistic guess if the overshipping and PS3 winning 2011 shall be right. 400k - 500k would be more reasonable guess.


I think it is best to just ignore what they are saying to be honest because it is based on assumptions and no actual facts.

To put it into some kind of perspective they think Q1 numbers should be the same as they were 12 months ago pretty much. If the numbers are less = MS stuffed channeks and lost 2011.

But yet fail to mention what had been released a few weeks prior to that Q (Kinect). So to expect Q1 numbers to be on par with the early Kinect numbers is just stupid. There is no way on earth that MS will have the same Q results as that of 12 months ago.The numbers will be down loads.

While they are quick to point out the possibility of MS over-shipping the 360 they fail to mention that by that logic the PS3 has probably been heavily over shipped too. Especially if you take into account Sony just dropped their estimates by 10% on PS3 sales.

I think as others have obviously made clear in this thread just because these guys are more active in using this site doesn't make what they say right.