http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=34697&page=7

According to the research we did in old that thread, NES penetrated 1/3 American households (likely a shipment figure though) between 1986-1990. Figures are something like this...

1993 Onwards - 1m (34m)

1992: 2m (33m)
1991: 3m (31m)
1990: 7.2m (28m)
1989: 9.2m (20.8m)
1988: 6.4m (11.6m)
1987: 4.1m (5.2m)
1986: 1m (1.1m)
1985: 0.09m (0.09m)

1990 USA Census: 248.7m People in the United States. Probably about 83 million households. NES penetration ~ 33.7% of USA households.

1992 USA Census Est: 255m people in the United States. 255m / 3 = 85m households. NES penetration ~ 33m/85m households ~ 38.7% of USA households.

So NES penetration peaked at 39% of USA households. Now, take a look at the Wii.

 Wii   Yearly   LTD  Growth/Decline   USA Population  / USA Households      Penetration = Wii LTD / Households

2006: 1.08m (1.08m) (298.6m Americans / 99.5m Households)  Wii: 1% Penetration

2007: 6.29m / 500% / (7.37m) (301.6m Americas / 100.5m Households)  Wii: 7% Penetration

2008: 10.16m / 62% / (17.53m) (304.4m Americans / 101.5m Households) Wii: 17% Penetration

2009: 9.59m / -6% / (27.12m) (307m Americans / 102.33m Households) Wii: 26% Penetration

Going from when NES launched nationally in 1986, Wii/NES have sold nearly identical amounts in four years. The difference is that NES was at 33% penetration, while Wii is at 26% penetration...and NES ended up at 38% in in 1992 at its absolute zenith of ownership/households.

Going by the NES model, 38% penetration, you can use that to model when Wii will really slow down:

Estimates

2010: 8.15m / - 15% / (35.27m) (309.2m Americans / 103m Households) Wii: 34% Penetration  (Note: NES only did 6m after 33% pent.)

2011: 6.53m / -20% / (41.80m) (311.3m Americans / 103.8m Households) Wii: 40% Penetration (My estimation for $200 Console market is ~45m)

Now, if Wii is really like the PS2, it can keep going beyond 40%. But if it is like NES, this is where sales may start dropping by 40%-50%, even if no new systems released. There is no reason to believe it is going to fail to get to 40m though, given that 40m will be less than 40% of USA households in 2011. PS2 has been purchased by 45m out of 102.3m USA households through 2009 - 44%. That figure should peak at 45% (~47m out of 104m USA households) in 2011, although obviously most PS2 owners aren't purchasing games and many sold their systems to GameStop or whoever a while ago. I don't see any reason why Wii can't get to at least mid 40% penetration as it is going to become the budget device in two-three years.

2012: 4.8m / -27% / (46.60m) (313.5m Americans / 104.5m Households) Wii: 44% Penetration (See Note Above: Spring 2012 Price Cut)

2013: 3.2m / -33% / (49.80m) (315.8 Americans / 105.3m Households) Wii: 47% Penetration (Would expect Wii to be under $100 by this point)

2014: 2m / - 38% / (51.8m) (318m Americans / 106m Households) Wii: 48.8% Penetration

2015: 1m / - 50% / (52.8m) (320.2m Americans / 106.7m Households) Wii: 49.5% Penetration

2016: 0.2m / -80% / (53m) (322.4m Americans / 107.5m Households) Wii: 49.3% Penetration

What it boils down to is, Wii is at least capable of 40% penetration of American households by the time it stops selling, based on NES and PS2 which seem to be the machines most similar to Wii. If Nintendo keeps cutting price when necessary, and the gaming population continues to expand (or at least holds flat) as a percentage of the USA population, its concievable that Wii will top 50m in the USA.

NES/PS2 needed 6 full years (1987-1992...given that NES didn't launch nationally until late 1986 when test runs in NYC and LA, CA proved successful, PS2 launched in October 2000 so the full years were 2001-2006) to top 35% penetration in the USA. Wii looks like it will only need five full years to do so - which suggests either a very short tail at the end (Wii stops around 40m) or a very long tail given how deep the penetration is with high sales remaining. I lean towards the latter but we'll have to see.

Thoughts?

Interesting analysis. I think it's likely the Wii will manage to break the 50 million barrier.

I seem to recall being brazen enough to claim the Wii might top 200 million worldwide by the end of this gen, way back in like 2007. That's now looking nearly impossible. Of course, at the time I had also assumed this gen would be unusually long, not ending until 2013-2014. That's looking less and less likely as well.

I'm still hoping we'll be able to top 300 million total consoles sold by the end of this generation, but at this point I wouldn't bet on it. I think my original estimation way long ago was 250-300 or something.

What are the precentages for overall Console penetration?

I don't see the wii selling for as long as the ps2, software will most likely dry up by then, even nintendo will probably move on.

You would have to really account for overall saturation of the market. Aprox 58M consoles have been sold in the U.S.A. which would put the overall level of saturation at pessimistically 40% considering broken consoles, multi-ownership etc.

This, to me, was a fascinating read. I guess my only question is whether this will hold up due to the much more competitive console cycle we're in now? I realize that, with the NES, there really wasn't much direct competition, but at the same time video games were far more 'niche' than they are now, but is it more likely that due to the heavy presence of PS3 and the 360 that it could stunt the eventual Wii grand total in America? Either way, it's still quite an interesting piece to look at. Out of curiosity, what would you compare the 360 and PS3 to, historically, and what are your projections for their final sales/penetration?

Wii could eventually sell up to 60 million in American region. Another 30 million Wii console sales over the next 4 or 5 years is doable. 30 million Wii sales were achieved in the first 3 years. Next 30 million will be achieved in a longer period of time.

There's a lot about this math that is iffy. For example I notice there's an estimation for 1992 on the NES's household penetration, but no relatively solid numbers until 14 years later. The size of the average household has declined over that period of time despite a rise in the number of citizens. Is this accounted for? How do we know how to account for this, precisely?

You use 3 as the average number of people per household but that's one thing I don't see evidence for. It is, however, currently 2.59 now so do you have anything to back you math up? Or are you making half of these numbers up? You're making up the household numbers, what else are you BSing?

I'm sorry, it's really too much work on my part to figure out where you're just trying to justify whatever position you want us to think it right.  I know you're pulling numbers out of your ass, though, and you damn well better believe you deserve to be called on it.

I'm assuming he just rounded up.

Though actually, average household size is 2.61 currently.

Average household size in 1990 was 2.63.  Not too diffrent.

Regardless, the fact that he does not bother to research the facts he is trying to talk about means that what he is talking about is highly suspect. Whether I'm off by .02 or not is a radically different situation when he is more than 10 times off the number. As far as I can tell, and I've seen numbers like these float around on VGChartz before (mostly from old NYT articles), every inch of this is pure estimation and the more estimations that pile on top of one another the less accurate the whole mess is.