Unless Microsoft was to pay for the entire development process, it definitely wouldn't go to the 360. Only way the 360 gets a lick of Shenmue is to release Shenmue 2 on the Xbox Originals (didn't they discontinue that?) or have 1&2 together as XBLA titles.

On the PS3, it definitely would NOT get a Shenmue 3 unless Sega reused assets from the Yakuza titles. Seeing as to how it succeed in Japan, but fail in the West (like the last couple Yakuza games) I doubt they would spend the money to do that. PS3 is the most expensive to develop for, and creating an overworld with that Shenmue scope would be beyond costly.

I doubt multiplatform would recoup costs either, but maybe if the budget was truly handled perfectly.

Now, last but not least Wii. Now, unless Nintendo has gone crazy, and really wants to dish out the goods by snatching exclusivity of this title as well (overseeing development, publishing assistance) they wouldn't get it on the Wii either. It is the cheapest to develop for, but they would have to see how the market reacts to a "Shenmue Collection" first (why this hasn't happened on any console, I don't know). It would be the safest bet in case it fails, but somehow seems like the least likely to happen.

Overall, I think the first second of S3 development would be with the mindset that this is releasing for the next generation of consoles. But if it were to turn up, it would be anyone's game. For the sake of argument, I'd say:
%40 chance multiplatform
30% chance 360 exclusive
20% chance Wii exclusive
10% chance PS3 exclusive

Would order it instantly a Shen Mue Collection 1-3 would be a dream. This game blowed my mind when I played it first. Was right after release, PS2 wasnt out yet. And we saw this game the graphics were just so good. The possibility to play full sega games in the arcade just blew my mind.

There was even a rumor that you could play Sega Saturn CDs with the Sega Saturn in your Home.

Why people why had Shen Mue low sales. I just dont understand it. It should have giant sales.

hopefully it will come as a PS3 collection. If it comes as an exclusive probably on PS3 because Playstation is bigger then Xbox in Japan. I dont understand why they have not released the second part on PS2 but on Xbox. Japan bought just 600k Xbox. So why have they released it on Xbox it makes no sense to me And whats with the DC games. They mentioned that they will release DC games on PSN and live.

the game will be PS3 exclusive for sure if it was destined to be made, the x360 can't sell such a game, the Wii (no comment, just lol) ...... so eventually the PS3 will be the final resort for the game, c'mon Sony, throw some money on the game, it could be another hit.

Shenmue isnt a good choice for Sega to release now they can see how FF has done and see it dropping in sales with every release. Shenmue wont be here for a long time

      Don't know about that.  I think the success of Valkyria Chronicles and the Yakuza games exclusively on PS3 points towards an exclusive Shenmue 3 on PS3 too.

i dont get the financials at all. Shenmue cannot cost more to make than Yakuza since the 2 games play, feel and look similar. The production values must be almost identical and if this is so, and Yakuza has done so well for Sega in Japan alone, I cannot see why they cant make a Shenmue 3 :S

I easily see it on PS3/X360.

Someone needs to money hat them, preferably MS since they worked closely with Sega last generation and haven't had anything huge as of late (though Banjo in the Kart game is interesting.). Put a good two years into the game and finish the story, let the fans have their conclusion.

Japan is not the only territory they would try to break through on this one.
A PS3 Shenmue would sell no better than Tekken 6..................

So where are the most old school Sega fans at, with the Wii, PS3 or 360???

I'm a hardcore old Sega fan and I'm a 360 owner this gen (all 3 last gen).