Wii and DS were originally projected at 26m/30m for hw, and 220m and 180m for sw in the year ending March 2010.

Nintendo lowered both in October when it disclosed its data through September 2009, to 20m for Wii. DS was left at 30m. SW for each system was lowered to 180m for Wii, and 150m for DS.

I have to say I didnt expect DS sw to only be 50m this quarter...thats pretty low given what it did in the previous quarter.

To hit the 20m/30m targets Nintendo only has to ship 2.95m Wiis in Jan to March 2010 (17.05m in 9 months)...and Wii is up so far in Japan and flattish elsewhere. For DS, Nintendo has to ship 6.65m systems in Jan-March to make 30m given 23.35m shipped in 9 months. Obviously that will include the DSi XL launch in the west, but I still have doubts Nintendo can make that target, as even by shipping DSi last March ahead of the April 5 launch, Nintendo only shipped 5.56m DS systems. In contrast, Wii shipments were 5.43m in Jan-March 2009, and even though I expect Wii to be down from that, the $200 price point, NSMB Wii, WSR, WF+ and the other key titles are enough to carry Wii at least 3-4m in this quarter - so I think the 20m Wii hw forecast is beatable.

So it looks like Wii will beat projections, and DS probably won't? Everything sounds right in your analysis, but I'd like to point out that the XL is only getting an EU launch in March (America is later, likely Q2) so DS may even be a bit lower than you're expecting.

http://www.microsoft.com/msft/earnings/fy10/earn_rel_q2_10.mspx

That's a pretty good improvement from the previous year in the EDD.

I have Wii doing like 3.2m or 3.5m in the current quarter, so I think it could.

The Wii is going to cross their target with ease, there's no doubt about it. Just looking at the Japanese sales, it's still riding the Mario wave from December and should do so for another couple of weeks before we enter the Spring. As for the DS, lol.

so if i understand this right microsoft's gaming division made 375 million 3rd quarter?

Microsoft's years end June 30, so its their second quarter, Nintendo/Sony have it as their third quarter (year ends March 31), and for the calendar year its the fourth quarter if that makes sense.

Well, Entertainment and Devices Division yes (which includes X360 business)

Anyone know if Microsoft stated updated 360 shipment numbers? and it'll be interesting to see PS3 shipment numbers with the massive adjustment down...