Wii and DS were originally projected at 26m/30m for hw, and 220m and 180m for sw in the year ending March 2010.
Nintendo lowered both in October when it disclosed its data through September 2009, to 20m for Wii. DS was left at 30m. SW for each system was lowered to 180m for Wii, and 150m for DS.
I have to say I didnt expect DS sw to only be 50m this quarter...thats pretty low given what it did in the previous quarter.
To hit the 20m/30m targets Nintendo only has to ship 2.95m Wiis in Jan to March 2010 (17.05m in 9 months)...and Wii is up so far in Japan and flattish elsewhere. For DS, Nintendo has to ship 6.65m systems in Jan-March to make 30m given 23.35m shipped in 9 months. Obviously that will include the DSi XL launch in the west, but I still have doubts Nintendo can make that target, as even by shipping DSi last March ahead of the April 5 launch, Nintendo only shipped 5.56m DS systems. In contrast, Wii shipments were 5.43m in Jan-March 2009, and even though I expect Wii to be down from that, the $200 price point, NSMB Wii, WSR, WF+ and the other key titles are enough to carry Wii at least 3-4m in this quarter - so I think the 20m Wii hw forecast is beatable.
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
