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Forums - Sales Discussion - Will the PS3 overtake the 360 in 2011?

 

Will the PS3 overtake the 360 in 2011?

Hell Yeah!!! PS3 all the way. 328 56.85%
 
No Way!!! It will never happen. 97 16.81%
 
Maybe??? 152 26.34%
 
Total:577
Netyaroze said:
Seraphic_Sixaxis said:
Maybe... it depends on a number of factors, a big number of factors.

just keep in mind, nothing is guaranteed gentlemen.

 

Yes it depends on various factors its not a fact that PS3 will be second but I believe it. I dont know it.

well said.

 



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I picked maybe. It all depends on this years holiday season.



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This far into the generatIon I can't see Microsoft just giving away the lead. I say the positins are set at this point.



I think 2011 is a little soon.

Even if the PS3 maintains the current sales differential it still will only just make it.



I sure hope so!



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nope, in 2010 it will



i think ps3 will shank xbox 360 this year will be the year that will give us the answer by this holiday season!



Cypher1980 said:
I think 2011 is a little soon.

Even if the PS3 maintains the current sales differential it still will only just make it.



Yes at this Pace it would take 18 months but:


At the moment the gap is at 5.34 Mln.

PS3 outsold Xbox by 64k this week. Lets assume an average of 50k per week until October:
we have exact 36 weeks until 3 october assuming a 50k gap between both consoles every week it would be 1.8 Mln more PS3s than 360s.
The Gap would be down to 3.54 Mln.
The Xbox360 sold at its peak year 10.8 Mln in 2009 it was 10.1 Mln.
The PS3 sold roughly 13 Mln in 2009.

We can see until  now that PS3 is up yoy. The first 9 months of 2009 were horrible for PS3. It will be definetly up yoy in 2010. 
Ps3 sold 2009 between October and december 6.5 Mln Consoles 360 sold 4.9 Mln so thats lets take this number again thats 1.6 Mln more.

Together with 1.8 Mln the PS3 should be at 3.4 Mln more consoles than Xbox this year. 
The lead of the Xbox could be just 1.9 Mln after this year.


But only if the 360 is not down yoy between 3 october and 2 january.And if PS3 wont be up yoy between the same time period.

We dont have an established trend yet. We have to wait until March.

There are ofcourse dozends of unknown factors. Like 
Natal/Arc

FF14/GT5

Halo Reach

And a ton of other games. It could go either way. But If the Ps3 has a pricecut in october plus GT5 and Arc it could be even bigger this christmas.
360 has also its chances. But infact I think that its very well possible that PS3 could outsell 360 even this year. Even if unlikely.


We saw the gap melting down by 3 Million in the last 3 months. MS can do nothing until october except a pricecut. 50k more per average is very possible. It could be even more due to some franchises which come first time to HD consoles. Like GOW 3 March should look excellent for Sony Xbox360 has excellent titels aswell especially titles which will be first time on HD consoles will be important and sony has an advantage here.

I think it looks very good for Sony. MS has only the chance to cut the price of the 360 soon. And later that year Natal. 

 


We will see whats going to happen. This year will decide. After Holidays 2010 it will be clear which console will have the upper hand.

The 360 has peaked 2008 a peak in 2010 is unlikely but even then it would have to sell better then PS3 in 2009 that means 2 Million more then 2008 to achieve this it has to be up 33% YOY every week. Starting today. But even then, the gap would close, ofcourse much slower. If XBox is down yoy until Natal then it has to be up yoy by over 100%  between october and December 2010 to reach PS3s 2009 Numbers. 
it looks good for Sony, Natal has to do wonders to rescue the Xbox.  



Based on current sales trends, game line ups in 2010 and 2011. I would have to say it is only a matter of time when the PS3 overtakes the 360 in total worldwide sales.

The gap between PS3 and 360 will be only 2 to 3 million sales lead in favour of the 360. So second half 2011 when the PS3 has late surge in sales it should shoot pass the 360 in total worldwide sales.

The sales gaps between PS3 and 360 are increasing in all regions in favour of the PS3 over the 360. European and Japanese markets see the PS3 sell a lot better than the lagging sales of the 360. North American market is practically even now or slightly in favour of the PS3. The sales gap is being clawed back very quickly, much faster than I anticipated.

3 million more PS3 have been sold than XBox 360s since the September 2009 PS3 Slim launch with much cheaper and competitive sales price. 5 months with an average of 600,000 more PS3s sold than XBox 360 has dropped the sales gap down from 8.3 million to 5.3 million and falling.

I would be surprised if the 360 outsells the PS3 in weekly sales ever again. The PS3 has a much bigger and better exclusive games line up than the 360. PS3 has aaround 6 or 7 exclusive games that should be console selling hardware titles. PS3 titles system sellers include: God of War III, Heavy Rain, Gran Turismo 5, Final Fantasy Versus XIII, Final Fantasy XIII(multi-plat but will sell many more PS3s than 360s), The Last Guardian and M.A.G. and probably many more PS3 exclusive games that could be system sellers.

360 has maybe Halo:Reach to shift 360 consoles. But three Halo games already out on 360 and lots of shooters: I would not count on Halo:Reach being a big system seller. Natal Project may be the 360s last hope of remaining comeptitive with the PS3 in weekly console sales.




ps3 is already second, the 360 was releasead a year before in america and a year and a half before in europe , and the dif is onlye 5.3 mill, doesnt the xbox360 sell like 10 million each year?