| Cypher1980 said: I think 2011 is a little soon. Even if the PS3 maintains the current sales differential it still will only just make it. |
Yes at this Pace it would take 18 months but:
At the moment the gap is at 5.34 Mln.
PS3 outsold Xbox by 64k this week. Lets assume an average of 50k per week until October:
we have exact 36 weeks until 3 october assuming a 50k gap between both consoles every week it would be 1.8 Mln more PS3s than 360s.
The Gap would be down to 3.54 Mln.
The Xbox360 sold at its peak year 10.8 Mln in 2009 it was 10.1 Mln.
The PS3 sold roughly 13 Mln in 2009.
We can see until now that PS3 is up yoy. The first 9 months of 2009 were horrible for PS3. It will be definetly up yoy in 2010.
Ps3 sold 2009 between October and december 6.5 Mln Consoles 360 sold 4.9 Mln so thats lets take this number again thats 1.6 Mln more.
Together with 1.8 Mln the PS3 should be at 3.4 Mln more consoles than Xbox this year.
The lead of the Xbox could be just 1.9 Mln after this year.
But only if the 360 is not down yoy between 3 october and 2 january.And if PS3 wont be up yoy between the same time period.
We dont have an established trend yet. We have to wait until March.
There are ofcourse dozends of unknown factors. Like
Natal/Arc
FF14/GT5
Halo Reach
And a ton of other games. It could go either way. But If the Ps3 has a pricecut in october plus GT5 and Arc it could be even bigger this christmas.
360 has also its chances. But infact I think that its very well possible that PS3 could outsell 360 even this year. Even if unlikely.
We saw the gap melting down by 3 Million in the last 3 months. MS can do nothing until october except a pricecut. 50k more per average is very possible. It could be even more due to some franchises which come first time to HD consoles. Like GOW 3 March should look excellent for Sony Xbox360 has excellent titels aswell especially titles which will be first time on HD consoles will be important and sony has an advantage here.
I think it looks very good for Sony. MS has only the chance to cut the price of the 360 soon. And later that year Natal.
We will see whats going to happen. This year will decide. After Holidays 2010 it will be clear which console will have the upper hand.
The 360 has peaked 2008 a peak in 2010 is unlikely but even then it would have to sell better then PS3 in 2009 that means 2 Million more then 2008 to achieve this it has to be up 33% YOY every week. Starting today. But even then, the gap would close, ofcourse much slower. If XBox is down yoy until Natal then it has to be up yoy by over 100% between october and December 2010 to reach PS3s 2009 Numbers.
it looks good for Sony, Natal has to do wonders to rescue the Xbox.
