Simple Question. Who do you think will/deserve to win Best Picture?

Clearly Avatar does... Inglorious Basterds would be a second.

Have you ever watched Dances with Wolves? Avatar has almost the exact same plot. The effects in Avatar are amazing, but I think the dark horse, Inglourious Basterds, will upset Avatar.

Probably Avatar based on the Golden Globes.

For a long while The Hurt Locker looked the front runner (and would be my choice) but Avatar = a plot Hollywood clearly likes historically, a huge success (Hollywood likes that too) and has shown big 3D movies can work (which Hollywood is keen on because it reckons you'll pay more to see them and be less likely to pirate them).

So pat on the back for Avatar probably.

However, like I say having seen all those films I'd say The Hurt Locker was the genuine best film there, followed by Basterds and Up In the Air.

Avatar will break 2 billion USD WW gross thus solidifying THE movie of the decade.

Maybe Avatar but that's totally not sure.

The Hurt Locker is it's biggest competitor.

I'd be very surprised if IB got it, not that it's not the better film, which it is (although not quite as good as Hurt Locker I thought) but because it just doesn't feel like it has the right mood around it.  Waltz should get supporting actor easy though, and I'd hope to see it get script as well.

Obviously the movie staring the fat ugly black chick.

If the question what what movie SHOULD win, and not what movie WILL win, I have to go with IB.

As for avatars story, I feel I have seen it before... (spoiler alert)
http://www.buzzfeed.com/reddit/james-camerons-pocohontas-err-avatar

Either Avatar or the Hurt Locker

Avatar won the golden Globe, Hurt Locker Won the critics choice award.

I liked both movies, but I really wanted Precious to win

What a horrible way to describe Precious! My cousin was an extra in it.

OT: The Hurt Locker is clearly THE best picture of the year. I don't care what the Academy says, they were so wrong last year with Slumdog Millionaire. I have a soft spot for Inglourious Basterds but doubt it will walk away with much. Avatar will dominate all the technical stuff and probably walk away with Best Picture (you were right Butrous :P). Up In The Air does not deserve to even be in contention. It is a mildly enjoyable old fashion screwball comedy and nothing more. Precious doesn't really have a chance IMO.

You also have to consider that 10 films will be up for Best Picture this year (though you listed the frontrunners). I think Up and Invictus will get nominated but beyond that I have no idea.