I'm quite shocked at the reception of this title. I wanted to create this thread early on, before its sales trend becomes too obvious. That way we can go back to this thread months from now and laugh at the crazy predictions!

So, where do you think this title will end up? December NPD had Just Dance at the ballpark of around double VGC's estimation, so keep that in mind.

I'll go for the bold prediction of over 3.5 4 million.

I know this may sound a little crazy, but I see the title having great legs, as it has practically no competition in its genre. Its sales skyrocketed in the UK, in its 8th week after release, and this is out of the holiday season. The customer reviews this game is getting is unlike previous third party hits, see Amazon for example (US / UK, almost all 4's and 5's). It's about as accessible as it gets, and the game's premise, dancing, has extremely broad appeal.

I believe it started slow because it's an unknown IP, so even with the advertisements people are weary of spending their money on it. Word of mouth will get around, and it'll soon become clear that it doesn't require the "Nintendo" name on a box to make a massive leggy hit.

The best part about all this is its metacritic is currently sitting at 45.

Now, what it does have going against it is it's a 3rd party title. That means that because it's a hit, we can almost expect a "Just Dance 2" by next holiday, which will kill its sales (whereas Nintendo wouldn't opt for such a thing). Hopefully that wouldn't sever its legs completely, and limps on to my prediction...

I'm getting the feeling that this will be very big. 5 million.

Sales went up by 114% this week in the UK weekly charts somehow...

The game just looks fun. If Suda51 likes playing it, anyone probably could. It appeals to everyone and was PROPERLY MARKETED as such. Metacritic score may be low, but that obviously doesn't matter when it is outselling Assassins Creed 2 (PS3) in Europe.

I say it will pass 900k at this rate, if sales went up this week over the last one. Depending on the ongoing strength of its word of mouth and the 2010 holiday boost, it will pass 1 million......and receive an underperforming sequel at the end of the year.

You mean advertising sells games? Sorry, i had to get that out of my system.

I go with Demotruk. Five million. It has a good cover, advertising and it should have a good word-of-mouth.

Okay. I reverted my prediction back to 4 million, which is what I was originally going to do, but I thought it might be too crazy. 2 people already betting for 5 makes me think otherwise, lol

Anyway, the fun thing about the UK sales is how it went up by 114%. This is in a week where just about all the other software dropped anywhere from 17-35%. It'd be interesting to see the actual sales numbers, it probably holds #1 by a huge margin (over Wii Fit+ at #2).

2 million+ is a given.
Hmn, I sense some kind of milking alarm. After the party game 'Carnival Games' found its success the shovel party avalanche came down to the Wii. Let's see how Ubisoft will handle their new franchise and above all, do we have to expect more dancing games from other developers incoming?

between 700K and 20 Million

Who would have thought that advertising a games can actually help the sales??
Hell this game probably have a advertising budget several time the development cost.

it will sell more than silent hill: shattered memories, final fantasy crystal bearers, muramasa the demon blade, a boy and his blob, cold mountain, and madworld combined.

Hooray for sales!!! /sarcasm