That's exactly why I said you can take it as good or bad.

On one hand, it might open with a bigger first week and it's much cheaper to develope. On the other hand, it's on PSP which has a much bigger market in Japan. If the series really grew a following after the first game, it should open much bigger on PSP.

DAILY UPDATE:

Comgnet 1/15

DQ6- 675 (+10)

EOE- 169 (+5)

AT3- 118 (+2)

________

EOE or Resonance of Fate here continues to increase by 5 points, which is good, its ahead of Ar Tonelico 3 which is also very good for it!

Update will be updated within the OP momentarily

cool.

Base on the value you provided:

3100 for FF12 = 1,800,000

2000 for FF13 = 1,500,000

600 for NSMB DS = 910,000

rounded to nearest whole number:

1800000/3100 = 581

1500000/2000 = 750

910000/600 = 1517

Given that this is pre order number only, preorders and first week sale could very week be different, but I would assume that FF12 and FF13 would have had similar ratio of preorder to final sale especially as they are tracking about the same on current sale. So the point system is a bit confusing at best.

Its more like this (giving numbers, you rounded too low):

FF12 -- 1800000/3510 = 512

FF13 -- 1500000/2201 = 681

Basically the reasons for this can be the following:

1. Pre-order trends change over 3 years

2. FF13 was the first FF on PS3 & led to the most amount of consoles being sold in an FF week ever, with around 150K bundles or so.....this mean that most probably all the people who bought a PS3 for FF13 didn't pre-order it, focurse it probably pushed more consoles than just 150K over the week before it launched, in its week & the week after it launched.

3. FF12 was the second main FF on Ps2 (3rd if you count FFx-2) so the userbase was there already leading to a lower sales to pre-order ratio

As I said the points give a good range of where the sales will be & a great indication of how a game is doing in pre-orders, it does not give specifics, but they have been very accurate with predictions they make for games when they are near launch, you will see them in the coming days as more updates are done.

@Darth

It would be much more valueble if they assign real number value to their point system, while they might not be going this blind, they leave much room to maneuvre because their chart is base on a point system with no real life value.

For something like the above, all I would need is the pre-order number of say a big shop in Akihabara. I could then assign random variable to these pre-order numbers that are in ratio to each other.

The end result is that no matter how many points I assign to pre-orders as long as they are in ratio I stand a good chance to make an fairly accurate prediction of first week sale (but only if I compare them to my other pre-orders!), any variable could be easily expained away via non-preorder data and since there is no real life number to stand in the way, the point system cannot be refuted.

The lower the number the more easier this data becomes to manipulate, because some game that is off by a meager 10 point could represent as much as 5000-7000 pre-orders.

So yea, they could very well be legit, but I'm just finding this imaginary point system real hard to swallow.

They probaby do, I just don't know that number & can't find it or maybe they don't reveal it. I don't think its an imaginary point system, if it helps just take it to be 1 order = 1 point or something.

But as I said they have been quite accurate with predicting week 1 sales through their system after comparing points to similar games that launched recently, far far more accurate than famitsu's predictions have been recently anyway.

They give a accurate general idea (like the source's japan preview), thats all.

Yeah, they can be very accurate, thats my whole point, they use a point system and the lower the point per real pre order value, the more easier it is to become accurate.

1-1 hard to be accurate

1-500? so what if its off by say 300, that doesn't even give it a whole digit! it would have to be off by say 100,000+ (200) for the numbers to have any meaningful drop according to their point system for a game with numbers like FF13.

Fumitsu's prediction where rubbish for some game, but at least they had the balls to put real number in.

This site could very well do the same, but since neither of us understand Japanese lol!

So yea, the data is nice to have for general trend and overview but I'd give more credit to Famitsu's inaccurate real number than this.

edit: This is why I will also give more credit to someone like theSource, who will get the numbers wrong in a spectacular fashion once in a while but is usually at least within a margin of era, it is a lot harder to hide any error when every sale / preorder makes your chart deviates.

ohh, I got the point sistem now....

I mean they have predicted real sales for games launching based on their figures -- like 1.4 Million for FF13, 900K for NSMB Wii & so on and so forth

so they did predict real numbers closer to games launches

obviously they don't report real numbers in their pre-orders though (like source/famitsu & so on)

famitsu is still decent, I mean I think they were spot on for Tales of graces

but lol FF13 overshot their LTD prediction in 1 or 2 weeks, so did TOV PS3 & NSMB Wii (or it will very soon)