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Forums - Sales Discussion - The Official Dec 2009 NPD Thread (Data for 5 weeks ending Jan 2 in 5 hrs)

postofficebuddy on 14 January 2010

I take back what I said, I will comment on the statistical tie. Yes 360 and PS3 basically tied but the advantage still goes to PS3 because it was supply constrained. BTW off topic but your sig is epic theprof00. Who is that? And once again I ask, does anyone know when we'll be getting NPD Canada's numbers?



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theprof00 on 14 January 2010
ioi said:
theprof00 said:

I agree. I want to know why everyone is saying NPD is a statistical tie when they don't know the margin of error.

There is no way to calculate a margin of error.

Game X sells 200k at Walmart/TRU and 250k everywhere else.

Game Y sells 100k at Walmart/TRU and 350k everywhere else.

Both games have actually sold 450k. According to data that NPD track, one has sold around 40% more than the other which unless they have some way of finding out actual sales at Walmart/TRU will reflect in their final data. For example, if they assumed their market coverage was 60% (which it probably is on average), the final sales estimates would be:

Game X = 250/0.6 = 417k
Game Y = 350/0.6 = 583k

You can't really put a margin of error on it when such a large and independent sector of what you are estimating is totally unknown. They could be 5% out, they could be 20% out in some cases.

It doesn't matter established, how accurate and how reputable you think NPD is - the simple fact is that they don't have 100% market coverage so all of these figures are estimates...

Yes I understand that, and I agree. However, it is always possible to find the margin of error, it's just that the margin of error may be wrong since it's only assumed based on a sample size and some other factors. Do they do random sampling?



Kasz216 on 14 January 2010
postofficebuddy said:
I take back what I said, I will comment on the statistical tie. Yes 360 and PS3 basically tied but the advantage still goes to PS3 because it was supply constrained. BTW off topic but your sig is epic theprof00. Who is that? And once again I ask, does anyone know when we'll be getting NPD Canada's numbers?

Well the PS3 has an advantage even in the statistical tie. 

There is a higher percentage chance that the PS3 beat the 360, however since it's within the realm of statistical tie you can't really say either won.

You can say the "PS3 probably won." but that's about it.

You just don't know.



trangentspree on 14 January 2010

Kenology said:
OHHH EMMM GEEEE

Wow. Just wow.

You know we're gonna get several "Wii is doomed" articles because of this now, right!? The industry is MAD AS HELL right now.



donathos on 14 January 2010
Kasz216 said:
letsdance said:
and their formula produced ps3 > 360.

if the info they were provided didn't show the ps3 out pacing the 360 then it wouldn't show up in that way in the final number.

No it didn't.  Not statisticially... I'd further elaborate... but this is already explained in a previous post of mine.

To put it again... those numbers aren't exact numbers.


Right.  They're not exact numbers.  But exact numbers, for our purpose, don't exist--NPD, in this month and every other, releases some estimation, based on whatever data they've access to and the formulas they use to extrapolate that data.

If we're going to assign a "winner," or a first, second, and third place... it ultimately has to be based on whatever numbers NPD comes out with, at the end of their calculations.  Do the NPD estimations necessarily match the "reality" of the situation?  If NPD says that PS3 sold more than 360, does that mean it's necessarily so?  Of course not.  But we'll never find out if they're wrong, because nobody seems to be in a better position to tally the sales.

What we *do* know is this: by whatever process NPD uses, for better or worse, PS3 calculated to have a higher number of sales than 360.  And that *is* victory, in this context, because there's no more sophisticated or more precise calculation to appeal to.

Consider: in an election, votes are tallied.  Mistakes are made during these vote tallies, and the final vote counts aren't 100% accurate; there's a margin of error.  And yet, the candidate with the higher vote tally--even if by one solitary vote--is declared the "winner," even if its within whatever margin of error, because that's the only system available to count the votes.



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Khuutra on 14 January 2010
NJ5 said:
Quick Nintendo, launch the Wii HD!

WAIT NO, DON'T-



(yes I know you posted it, but this was perfect)



theprof00 on 14 January 2010

Ok, I'll agree with statistical tie then.



jarrod on 14 January 2010
psrock said:
jarrod said:
psrock said:
jarrod said:
psrock said:
jarrod said:
psrock said:

what circumstances, some sites were predicting 400k for the PSP this month, many people were saying it wasnt selling at all in their stores. The PSP has lost tons of momemtums coming to December, that number is fine.

The number's terrible and so is the continual downward spiral considering the platform saw arguably it's best software lineup since 2005 and a platform refresh with GO.  Sony's huge PSP push this year has been a complete bust, hardware's still sliding and software's abysmal.  I'm not sure what they need to do, or what they can do even, but if they don't do something they'll have a dead platform this time next year.

It's fine. And it's already next year, it's still fine.

All it needs is a price drop and consistant game release.

How can software get more consistent than this year?  Especially when nearly everything this year bombed?

I'm sorry, I think we're heading towards the point of no return here.  Sony got all the big publishers to line up with core oriented games (PSP had a better 3rd party lineup that Wii even this fall), they focused on a comprehensive digital library, they released a premium digital-only refresh and all it still failed.  I'm not sure what they should do, games certainly didn't work, digital didn't work.  Massive pricedrops might work, but then what are they going to prop up those PS3 losses with?

I'm starting to think we're going to see PSP2 sooner than anticipated...

Replace all you have said, put PS3 in there, and it's 2008 over again. I have seen this before, i have heard the cry for Sony to kill the PS3, it's still hearand doing great. The PSP  needs software and a price cut. That's all.

You're over-generalising.  PS3 was never in the sort of software sales malaise that PSP finds itself in in America now.

PSP has software.  It didn't matter, sales are even worse than last year when it didn't have software.  It's a dead platform walking...

 

Well, there goes your argument, the PSP in 2008 had plenty of Software compared to 2009.

lol.  In the past six months alone 2009 has had Gran Turismo, LittleBig Planet, MotorStorm Arctic Storm, Jak & Daxter Lost Frontier, Loco Roco Midnight Carvival, Rock Ban unplugged, Monster Hunter Freedom Unite, Soulcalibur BD, Tekken 6, Assassin's Creed Bloodlines, Dissidia FF, Persona, Disgaea 2, GTA Chinatown Wars, the usual EA Sports lineup, the usual SCEA sports lineup, plus tons of minis/PS1 games... what did 2008 have it it's last six months?



Kenology on 14 January 2010

Because this thread needs a third bullet bill gif...



Kasz216 on 14 January 2010
donathos said:
Kasz216 said:
letsdance said:
and their formula produced ps3 > 360.

if the info they were provided didn't show the ps3 out pacing the 360 then it wouldn't show up in that way in the final number.

No it didn't.  Not statisticially... I'd further elaborate... but this is already explained in a previous post of mine.

To put it again... those numbers aren't exact numbers.


Right.  They're not exact numbers.  But exact numbers, for our purpose, don't exist--NPD, in this month and every other, releases some estimation, based on whatever data they've access to and the formulas they use to extrapolate that data.

If we're going to assign a "winner," or a first, second, and third place... it ultimately has to be based on whatever numbers NPD comes out with, at the end of their calculations.  Do the NPD estimations necessarily match the "reality" of the situation?  If NPD says that PS3 sold more than 360, does that mean it's necessarily so?  Of course not.  But we'll never find out if they're wrong, because nobody seems to be in a better position to tally the sales.

What we *do* know is this: by whatever process NPD uses, for better or worse, PS3 calculated to have a higher number of sales than 360.  And that *is* victory, in this context, because there's no more sophisticated or more precise calculation to appeal to.

Consider: in an election, votes are tallied.  Mistakes are made during these vote tallies, and the final vote counts aren't 100% accurate; there's a margin of error.  And yet, the candidate with the higher vote tally--even if by one solitary vote--is declared the "winner," even if its within whatever margin of error, because that's the only system available to count the votes.

NPD didn't though.  That's the thing... when a tracking firm gives it's numbers... that you take the margin of error is implicit.

Also the fact that real numbers don't exist is why respecting the margin of error is so important.

 

Also no... actual elections don't have a margin of error.  When mistakes are within the margin of error they have recounts and go over disqualfied ballots and they're contested leagally.