January 11, 2010 - Expect this past Holiday's sales results to be dominated by Nintendo.

Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter passed along his monthly NPD U.S. preview for December 2009, and estimated Nintendo sold nearly six million pieces of hardware between the Wii and DS.

Nintendo announced earlier this month the Wii sold over three million units over the Holiday, up from 2.15 the previous year.

PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360 are expected to be close, with he PS3 taking second place. Going forward, Pachter believes both consoles will receive yet another price cut this summer, and we'll see the introduction of a 250 GB Xbox 360 SKU.

"We think that the PS3 may slightly outsell the Xbox 360 in December, due to significant advertising during the holidays," he wrote. "We expect another price cut for both systems some time this year (around summer), but note that because its manufacturing costs are lower, Microsoft has the ability to lower price as early as March or April."

"At a minimum, we anticipate the introduction of a more feature-packed Xbox 360 in early 2010 (likely with a 250Gb hard drive) at the same $299 price point, and think that Microsoft will cut price early in the year only if it begins to lose significant market share to Sony."

On the software side for December, Call of Duty Modern Warfare 2 is estimated to sell over two million units. Nintendo's The Legend of Zelda Spirit Tracks coming in with 700,000 units, and EA's The Saboteur selling 125,000. Guitar Hero: Van Halen, meanwhile, is coming in at a lowly 75,000 copies for December.

Below is the hardware sales projections for December 2009:

Wedbush Morgan Securities

Wii- 3,200,000
PS3 - 1,400,000
Xbox 360 - 1,350,000
PS2 - 350,000
PSP - 650,000
DS - 2,450,000

Below is Electronic Entertainment Design and Research's hardware estimates for comparison:

EEDAR

Wii - 3,000,000
PS3 - 1,450,000
Xbox 360 - 1,490,000
PS2 - 350,000
PSP - 350,000
DS - 2,800,000

NPD is expected to release its official numbers on January 14.

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http://xbox360.ign.com/articles/105/1059910p1.html

Seems to be quite a substantial difference in the predictions for Xbox 360 (either putting it behind or before PS3), a notable difference in just how far over 3mil the Wii has scored and how close to 3 mil the DS is, and A HUGE amount of difference in predictions for the PSP.

EDIT: More info, including New Super Mario Bros. Wii vs. Modern Warfare 2.

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While the official December NPD numbers aren't expected until the end of the week, Wedbush analysts are predicting that New Super Mario Bros. Wii will take the top selling slot for the month, and that the PlayStation 3 will outsell the Xbox 360.

With mid-month rapidly approaching, the NPD results for the month of December are expected in short order. With anticipation for the final holiday results at a high, analysts Michael Pachter and Edward Woo from Wedbush have revealed their expectations for the upcoming sales results, with many of November's winners suffering a reversal of fortune.

Most notably, Wedbush predicts that New Super Mario Bros. Wii will claim the top sales slot for December, pulling in 2.5 million units, while Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 is predicted to sell 2.1 million copies for the month. Another sore spot for Modern Warfare 2 is that its second month sales are predicted to be less than the 2.5 million copies Call of Duty: World at War sold in December of 2008--though Treyarch's WWII shooter didn't have anywhere close to Modern Warfare 2's debut.

The back-and-forth race between the PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360 should flip yet again, if Wedbush's predictions pan out. The PS3 is expected to eke out a small sales victory of 1.4 million consoles sold compared to a 1.35 take for the Xbox. Nintendo's top selling consoles should also switch spots, as predictions put the Wii at 3.2 million units sold, with the DS selling 2.45 million systems.

PSP estimates are hugely different, nearly 50% apart. Also DS difference is very significant...

we shall have to see who is closer

wait wat? ps3 won december wat wat? even shortgages, though both are around 10% so its impossible to know

wow if PSP only sells 350k........

It would also be interesting if the PS3 does end up outselling the 360 in the NPD

360 will outsell ps3 again.

I notice in both wii outsells the other 2 combined.

Indeed. But nothing we werent expecting since VGC has it +250k in favor of the 360.

For us who follow the site if either of the number sets hold true its surprisingly good for Sony based on the numbers we have been getting.

Wow... Nintendo really owned O.o