I like this thread.

I'll throw my hat in the ring, what the heck.

Wii: 20 Million, but of course it doesn't matter.

PS3: 32 million, B_E_L_I_E_V_E

Xbox 360: -100,000, MS will finally track RROD as negative consoles like the forum goers want.

Joke post, BTW. Except for the 360, we all know it's now doomed.

wii fit was actually used for games. the only thing vitality can do is sence your heartbeat and when your using that you cant hold anything in your hand while using it. it will fail bad. also i think the reason people keep saying wii will only sell 15-18 million consoles is because first they already see it falling because its been on a roll for to long and the second reason being the ps wand and natal slowing the wii sells.

Of course I disagree

Wii: 20m(Wii sales are falling but not by much)
PS3:13.5m(Its sold 12m in 2009, its only common sense it will sell more this year)
360: 11m(I can't see 360 not selling 10m and in 2009 they sold 11m so I think they will sell 11m again)

This will be an interesting thread to revisit in 11 months time.

Wii: Hard to predict. NSMBW will help substain sales much better than Wii Music/AC and Wii has a great line up of Mario / Metroid / Zelda possibly Pikmin 3, Retro studio game and other 'core' goodies. But what really is the kicker with Wii are the Vitality Sensor games. We have no clue. Could be a huge miss like Wii Music or a Wii Fit hit that again expands the market and creates another all new genre of games. If Vitality flops sales should be down yoy, if it's a hit, they'll be up. 18-24m

PS3 - Without question it'll be up for the first 8 months and without another price cut (unlikely) down the remaining 4 breaking about even with this year. GT5 and FFXIII should both give nice sales spikes. GEM/Wand whatever is a non-issue at this point. It currently screams 'me too' to Nintendo's 4 year old tech and will likely have poor game support. Overall I'd said it'll peak in '10 but not much over this year. 13-14m

360 - Without doubt will drop YoY being the eldest console. Price cut will help but not much. Natal is the wildcard here. It's different enough from Wii to grab people's interest. But Wii's motion controls would have flopped - hard - without Wii Sports. Will Natal have a Wii Sports? A game that sells it to the masses? Or will it be a novelity piece? MS will likely depend on Rare and if Viva Pinita and Banjo-Kazooie are anything to go on, Rare will make a great game that will miss the mass market mark - completely. 8-10m If Natal is a hit, could be 12m

People still said it would flop.  Heck everyone said Wii would flop and the Wii mote was stupid.

You are making a bunch of assumptions based on nothing at all.   Lots of other games could use the Vitality Sensor.   Don't forget there's dozens of games out now that can be played with only the Wiimote from Tiger Woods to NSMBW.   You also have to envision a new type of game experience.    Before Wii Fit there was vertually no such thing as a fitness game.  Now EA/Ubisoft/Majesco all have major money makers in this field.  Same could happen with the Vitality Sensor.  

Also the Vitality sensor does more than just moniter pulse but details are still sparce.

The biggest factor here is the female market.   Which NPD says is 45% of the active gaming market in NA and 49% of Wii owners.   YOU may never play a Vitality game but if females love it, that's potentially 30m in sales.  Girl power!!   But at this point who knows?

You still fail to prove that it isn't. You neglected the fact that Wii's momentum was crippled over the last 12 months, which is kinda of a big deal here. The fact the Wii moved so many millions of consoles after its release is testimony to its system selling power.

Anyway, on topic. I expect the 360 and PS3 to do around the same numbers, unless something substantial is announced for either one of them. The only exclyusive system seller the PS3 have is GT5, and for the 360 it's Halo Reach. Natal and Gem are still up in the air, but since they are proving they don't understand why the Wii is so popular I'm sure those motion devices will fail until they prove to me otherwise.

How is it going backwards?  The Wii is going ahead with tons of Momentum, and maybe it was all NSMB Wii, so what NSMB Wii is still here, and it doesn't have to hold up forever, by the end of summer the vitality sensor will be out, and that'll be likely huge.  I don't see how you really supported a 5 million drop in your previous comments.

Sure I've been wrong, and I'm not saying my predictions are perfect, but this one from you just seems more like you're hoping for the Wii to fall that far, rather than any real support for why you think it could possibly fall that far.

I'm buying one myself in march, why wouldn't I want more good games on it?

Like I said, I made my reasoning open and clear in my posts and I don't know what else to say. I don't care if you find them compelling or not. I will say this; going by console history doesn't cut it this gen, it does not follow any of the set conventions we know from before so we can't draw direct comparisons. Just because the PS2 didn't do one thing doesn't mean that a different market leader (with a vastly smaller lead on top) won't, it just doesn't work that way.

Anyway, I'm done discussing this, you'll have your predictions and I'll have mine and I'll happily swallow my words should any of them shoot past or dip below, I just hope you'll be up for the same.
Kudos for keeping your failed predictions in your sig though, too many people try to row away from them in here.

^Wii may have a smaller lead than PS2, but unlike PS2, it launched a year later and still leads, and tops the PS2's sales. So the idea that it would collapse below the PS2 is unlikely, considering its been doing better than the PS2 from almost day one.

I'm always willing to accept my failures, why should I try and distance myself from them, I'd rather try and learn from them

Well I don't agree with Gearbox's predictions but right now it is hard for me to tell. First and foremost, I need to lest 2009 end, and once last week's sales are fully in then I'll be able to go from there.

I think there a few points of interest though. One, despite Wii and 360 being down, they weren't down by much. PS3 of course increased and DS sales were flat. We are talking about 2009 sales compared to 2008. 2008 was a record breaking year all around and we come back to 2009 where summer sales were slow and at the end of the year only PSP was extremely down YoY. That's saying something about the industry. Two, to follow up on that the market is expanding. It's arguable that the economy might have hurt potential growth in the summer and simply delayed it to the holidays of 2009. With 2010 coming with one of the best gaming lineups in history and three new products (Vitality Sensor, Natal, Sony Wand) we could be potentially looking at more growth. A lot of this growth is happening in Europe and Others regions with some more happening in America.


So when making predictions, I think we need to take that into fact. Can't say I'm suggesting that 2010 will be bigger than 2009 but hey I can't say I'll deny the possibility. 2010 has everything in place to be a breakout year for gaming similar to that of 2007 (shortages all around stopped that). So after last week's sales go up I'll see if I can make some competent predictions.