predict the sales of the wii, ps3 and x360 this year.

[Gamerace]

This will be an interesting thread to revisit in 11 months time.

Wii: Hard to predict. NSMBW will help substain sales much better than Wii Music/AC and Wii has a great line up of Mario / Metroid / Zelda possibly Pikmin 3, Retro studio game and other 'core' goodies. But what really is the kicker with Wii are the Vitality Sensor games. We have no clue. Could be a huge miss like Wii Music or a Wii Fit hit that again expands the market and creates another all new genre of games. If Vitality flops sales should be down yoy, if it's a hit, they'll be up. 18-24m

PS3 - Without question it'll be up for the first 8 months and without another price cut (unlikely) down the remaining 4 breaking about even with this year. GT5 and FFXIII should both give nice sales spikes. GEM/Wand whatever is a non-issue at this point. It currently screams 'me too' to Nintendo's 4 year old tech and will likely have poor game support. Overall I'd said it'll peak in '10 but not much over this year. 13-14m

360 - Without doubt will drop YoY being the eldest console. Price cut will help but not much. Natal is the wildcard here. It's different enough from Wii to grab people's interest. But Wii's motion controls would have flopped - hard - without Wii Sports. Will Natal have a Wii Sports? A game that sells it to the masses? Or will it be a novelity piece? MS will likely depend on Rare and if Viva Pinita and Banjo-Kazooie are anything to go on, Rare will make a great game that will miss the mass market mark - completely. 8-10m If Natal is a hit, could be 12m