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Forums - Sales Discussion - Analyst - PS3 to see 10% GAIN in 2010, Wii60 to DECLINE! (Wii 20%, 360 5%)

psrock on 06 January 2010

One thing I know for sure, the PS3 has gained each year since it started.



 Next Gen 

11/20/09 04:25 makingmusic476 Warning Other (Your avatar is borderline NSFW. Please keep it for as long as possible.)
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The Ghost of RubangB on 06 January 2010
Khuutra said:
The Ghost of RubangB said:
Yes the Wii is going to decline 20% in the year that starts with a holiday boost from New SMB Wii, Wii Fit Plus, Wii Sports Resort, and a price cut, and later gets a new 3-D Mario, Metroid, and Motion+ Zelda, when compared to a year that started with a holiday boost from Animal Crossing and Wii Music.

In other news, I am about to eat the sun.

Listen you

Take pictures when you do it

I think you'd see it happen before I could upload the photos.  But sure.  I'll do it.



twitter.com/evaneldeneller

Sunday Fundays

heruamon on 06 January 2010
darthdevidem01 said:

PS3 to See 10% Gain in 2010 as Wii and Xbox 360 Decline, says Analyst

Posted January 6, 2010 by James Brightman

With 2010 now underway, analysts are looking ahead to make projections for the full calendar year. Wii sales in 2009 started to decline significantly in the second half, until the December holiday surge. Satoru Iwata believes the console has "recovered," but if you ask Lazard Capital Markets analyst Colin Sebastian, that holiday momentum won't last. He's forecasting a 20% decline in unit sales for the Wii this year. 

"One key takeaway from the holiday period is that there is ample demand for console hardware at reduced price points. Not only did Nintendo’s Wii benefit from a reacceleration in unit sales at lower price points ($149 in many stores), but PS3 sell-through is improving and the Xbox 360 is maintaining momentum. While not surprising that the Wii disproportionately sold more units in 4Q, as it remains a popular gift item, the recently reported 3+ million units sold in December exceeded our expectations. However, we remain cautious in modeling follow-on Wii sales in 2010," he said.

"For the year, we are currently modeling a 10% increase in PS3 unit sales, Xbox 360 unit sales down 5%, and a 20% decline in Nintendo Wii unit sales. There is upside potential to our estimates with further hardware price reductions. At this point, we expect the console-installed base to increase by roughly 25% to 70 million units, and above the 57 million console units installed of the last generation platforms at the end of 2005."

With an increasing interest in HDTVs and a solid software lineup for Sony's console, we'd expect the PS3 to have a great year in 2010. The Wii, on the other hand, may need to incorporate another price drop to $149 to further entice consumers.

NOTE: This seems to be for american market only

______________

http://www.industrygamers.com/news/ps3-to-see-10-gain-in-2010-as-wii-and-xbox-360-decline-says-analyst/

____________

Will analysts actually be correct for the first time ever this gen?

Will this scenario be replicated in other regions apart from America?

Will the wii instead blow past its 2009 figures?

Will PS Motion & NATAL skew these predictions massively?

Will dogs rule the world?

DISCUSS!

And I expect to go to fantasy land next week as well and meet with the Elf King.



"...You can't kill ideas with a sword, and you can't sink belief structures with a broadside. You defeat them by making them change..."

- From By Schism Rent Asunder

Kenology on 06 January 2010
Soriku said:

A 10% YoY increase for PS3 is possible with the games like CGI said. I don't see why Wii would decrease YoY with NSMB having a bigger impact than Animal Crossing/Wii Music so I doubt Wii will be down. Not sure about 360 though. I think that'll be down unless it has some big HW pusher(s) I'm not aware of?

That's because it won't decline, the analysts just want it to.

Seriously though guys, how are they justifying Wii being down 20% this year by using the price cut when the PS3 had one as well?  I don't doubt the PS3 being up 10% at all.  But it just seems more like they want the Wii to be down 20% and are having trouble explaining why, because the reason they gave doesn't make much sense!



Khuutra on 06 January 2010

Hmmm

They expect the Wii to sell about ~7,200,000 in the States, then.

Very interesting



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darthdevidem01 on 06 January 2010
Khuutra said:
The Ghost of RubangB said:
Yes the Wii is going to decline 20% in the year that starts with a holiday boost from New SMB Wii, Wii Fit Plus, Wii Sports Resort, and a price cut, and later gets a new 3-D Mario, Metroid, and Motion+ Zelda, when compared to a year that started with a holiday boost from Animal Crossing and Wii Music.

In other news, I am about to eat the sun.

Listen you

Take pictures when you do it

khuutie enough of sweet talk

tell us your opinion now



All hail the KING, Andrespetmonkey

Arius Dion on 06 January 2010

LoL. Wii's always right around the corner from doom and PS3 is always right around the corner from dominating..I've seen this theatre before.



Bet between Slimbeast and Arius Dion about Wii sales 2009:


If the Wii sells less than 20 million in 2009 (as defined by VGC sales between week ending 3d Jan 2009 to week ending 4th Jan 2010) Slimebeast wins and get to control Arius Dion's sig for 1 month.

If the Wii sells more than 20 million in 2009 (as defined above) Arius Dion wins and gets to control Slimebeast's sig for 1 month.

darthdevidem01 on 06 January 2010
heruamon said:
darthdevidem01 said:

PS3 to See 10% Gain in 2010 as Wii and Xbox 360 Decline, says Analyst

Posted January 6, 2010 by James Brightman

With 2010 now underway, analysts are looking ahead to make projections for the full calendar year. Wii sales in 2009 started to decline significantly in the second half, until the December holiday surge. Satoru Iwata believes the console has "recovered," but if you ask Lazard Capital Markets analyst Colin Sebastian, that holiday momentum won't last. He's forecasting a 20% decline in unit sales for the Wii this year. 

"One key takeaway from the holiday period is that there is ample demand for console hardware at reduced price points. Not only did Nintendo’s Wii benefit from a reacceleration in unit sales at lower price points ($149 in many stores), but PS3 sell-through is improving and the Xbox 360 is maintaining momentum. While not surprising that the Wii disproportionately sold more units in 4Q, as it remains a popular gift item, the recently reported 3+ million units sold in December exceeded our expectations. However, we remain cautious in modeling follow-on Wii sales in 2010," he said.

"For the year, we are currently modeling a 10% increase in PS3 unit sales, Xbox 360 unit sales down 5%, and a 20% decline in Nintendo Wii unit sales. There is upside potential to our estimates with further hardware price reductions. At this point, we expect the console-installed base to increase by roughly 25% to 70 million units, and above the 57 million console units installed of the last generation platforms at the end of 2005."

With an increasing interest in HDTVs and a solid software lineup for Sony's console, we'd expect the PS3 to have a great year in 2010. The Wii, on the other hand, may need to incorporate another price drop to $149 to further entice consumers.

NOTE: This seems to be for american market only

______________

http://www.industrygamers.com/news/ps3-to-see-10-gain-in-2010-as-wii-and-xbox-360-decline-says-analyst/

____________

Will analysts actually be correct for the first time ever this gen?

Will this scenario be replicated in other regions apart from America?

Will the wii instead blow past its 2009 figures?

Will PS Motion & NATAL skew these predictions massively?

Will dogs rule the world?

DISCUSS!

And I expect to go to fantasy land next week as well and meet with the Elf King.

Are such fantasi'es possible?

Is fantasy land truly the 4th dimension kutaragi was talking about?

Is the elf king the main villain in Final Fantasy XV?

DISCUSS!



All hail the KING, Andrespetmonkey

Kenology on 06 January 2010

analyst says
With an increasing interest in HDTVs and a solid software lineup for Sony's console, we'd expect the PS3 to have a great year in 2010. The Wii, on the other hand, may need to incorporate another price drop to $149 to further entice consumers.


It's that quote right there that's pretty much everything they've said since the beginning of this gen. HDTV's (or BluRay) would see PS3 sales take off and it's never happened.

And they think Nintendo will have to drop the price again on the way to a 20% decline!?

LOL! Forget it guys, Sebastian is PISSED! All the positive Wii news the past couple days must've been too much: Nintendo owns Europe, Wii = 3mil in December, Wii is healthy again says Iwata, Nintendo stocks on the rise, etc.  Must've been too much for the poor guy!  Positive Wii news always makes the trolls come out - we've seen it for over 3 years now!



yanamaster on 06 January 2010
hduser said:
yanamaster said:
CGI-Quality said:
It's actually quite possible pristine. The PS3 will see some of it's biggest titles to release yet: FFXIII/GT5/GOW III. Those three alone can cause a significant increase and that's not even taking into account what Sony has set up for the Holiday. As far as Nintendo and Microsoft declining, I can't say. But a 10% increase for Sony looks feasible.

Just like in 2009 it had a 100 $ price reduction, killzone 2, uncharted 2, assassins creed 2 and other additional good software. To me it looks like the ps3 is a little short on cards to gain that 10% growth.

 

i really think that people are over estimating  the significance of both FF13 and GT5 in america, these games have never been incredible sellers and hw movers in NA, more like moderate. both series make a killing worldwide but lately have seen lower sales than 6-8 years ago. It may actually just be like with most PS3 big hitters that they sell less than was expected at first (kz2, uncharted2 etc) but still sold well.

Is it possible you're underestimating the impact of FF13 and GT5?  Even though they're "sequels", it'll be the first appearance on the PS3.  Even with these games, there's still the undertow of bluray adoption that could help drive PS3 sales.  So 10% increase doesn't seem out of line.

Well with FF13 you have to remember that it is not exclusive to the ps3 and i have this gut feeling that the sales proportions won't look like 2:1 or 3:1 in favour of the ps3. I'm actualy considering a slight 1.1:1 advantage for the xbox in that regard (in the Americas of coursem, ww is purely ps3 orientated). I doubt also that blu ray adoption would lead to higher ps3 sales as you can buy cheaper and better blu ray players now in any bigger media store.

 



If i lose access to this profile as well....I'm done with this site.....You've been warned!!.....whoever you are...

Happy Wii60 user. Me and my family are a perfect example of where hardcore meets casual and together mutate into something awesome.