Bah, I was looking at total sales.

No. Simple as that.

The PS3 needs to sell the same amount of consoles it already sold AGAIN, just to catch up.

With FF13, the biggest PS3 system pusher this gen, already out, which *just* helped to sell 2 million units, it's impossible. Even if everything goes extremly well, GT5 will sell another 2 million, FFv13 and Yakuza 4 each selling another 1.5 million, it just reaches Wii's today's number. And the Wii won't stop selling, that's for sure. Add new Zelda Wii, Galaxy 2, DQ10 and Metroid: Other M and things are pretty much decided.

I voted no by a little. I see 2010 ending up close in numbers to 2009 but this time the Wii has all the momentum. Of course, several things could happen throughout fhe year to change this.

I don't see how Q4 can't be down really for Wii/PS3. Both systems in Q4 2009 were held up by once in a generation audience migrations (mainline FF, mainline 2D Mario) and price cuts earlier in the year.

Mario Galaxy 2 and FFXIV and Wii at 15000 Yen and PS3 at 25000 Yen wouldn't produce a holiday as good as 2009 when both systems had price cuts and NSMB Wii and FFXIII.

Q3 may be down for PS3 too since the PS3 sold ~250k+ in the first three weeks of Sept and will probably end up at 100k or less over the same period in 2010.

All your other points are correct but:

VGChartz Hardware data for the period 09th Aug 2009 to 29th Aug 2009:

or only slightly better:

VGChartz Hardware data for the period 02nd Aug 2009 to 29th Aug 2009:

I would expect PS3 to only be down in August-September by about 25k-50k in Japan.

Why would PS3 only be slightly down in Aug/Sept. in Japan in 2010? Is there another redesign/price cut happening that no one else knows about?

The poll is on HW sales. A lot of the talk so far is on software sales. Wii sells a ton of software, way more than PS3. But the PS3 will stay close in HW numbers - it is easier to grow from a small user base like PS3. Still I voted "no, buy a lot" because one unique color for the Wii and it's all over...I think PS3 will  be close, then get blown away in a few bad weeks; even, even, even, -1m, -500k, even, even, etc.

Look at the sales. Did you forget that that PS3 phat stock basically dried up in Japan in August. It sold 1k the week before the slim release. I would expect it to be up by at least 100k in August.

it might be up in August but in September there will be nothing to capture the public's attention like the slim did. Therefore sales will be WAAAAAAY down from '09 levels.

Since this is a predictions topic I will post it here, buy any thoughs on the Famitsu predictions that they did made in November?

(Wii) New Super Mario Bros. : 1,03-1,29M / 2,50M or more
(PS3) Final Fantasy XIII : 1,01-1,36M / 1,00-1,50M
(DS) Legend of Zelda: Spirit Tracks : 320-430k / 720-880k
(DS) Layton 4 : 300-400k / 540-690k
(PSP) Kingdom Hearts : 240-330k / 450-580k
(PSP) MS Gundam vs. Gundam Next Plus : 230-320k / 320-400k
(PSP) Phantasy Star Portable 2 : 200-260k / 270-350k
(Wii) Tales of Graces : 200-260k / 230-290k
(DS) Power Pro Pocket 12 : 130-180k / 230-290k
(PSP) Winning Eleven 2010 : 110-160k / 180-230k
(DS) Fushigi no Dungeon 4 : 100-140k / 100-130k
(PSP) Valkyria Chronicles 2 : 100-130k / 160-200k
(PS3) End of Eternity : 100-140k / 110-140k
(Wii) RE Darkside Chronicles : 100-130k / 180-230k
(PS3) Call of Duty MW2 : 90-130k / 140-170k

they were pretty off this time with most of the title's, and it seems that Kingdom Heart: BBS is also going to sell much more...