Will the ps3 outsell the wii in japan 2010? and by how much?

[postofficebuddy]

TheSource said:

I don't see how Q4 can't be down really for Wii/PS3. Both systems in Q4 2009 were held up by once in a generation audience migrations (mainline FF, mainline 2D Mario) and price cuts earlier in the year.

Mario Galaxy 2 and FFXIV and Wii at 15000 Yen and PS3 at 25000 Yen wouldn't produce a holiday as good as 2009 when both systems had price cuts and NSMB Wii and FFXIII.

Q3 may be down for PS3 too since the PS3 sold ~250k+ in the first three weeks of Sept and will probably end up at 100k or less over the same period in 2010.

All your other points are correct but:

VGChartz Hardware data for the period 09th Aug 2009 to 29th Aug 2009:

 

Console	PS3
Japan	11,432

or only slightly better:

VGChartz Hardware data for the period 02nd Aug 2009 to 29th Aug 2009:

 

Console	PS3
Japan	17,556

I would expect PS3 to only be down in August-September by about 25k-50k in Japan.