Nintendo adopts unproven tech if it's cost effective enough. The motion controls show that to be true, and visuals can be too if they are first of next gen.
HD is about 4X the compute power of ED.
3D is about another 2X.
That's roughly 8X the compute performance. You can get about 2X the performance for the same price by waiting 2 years, so 6 years after launch of the Wii, they could come out with a 3D model for about the same price as the original Wii. So 2012 would make sense *IFF* the 360 and PS3 start to sell better than the Wii.