I've been thinking a bit about the path Microsoft ought to take with their hardware after the fact with Natals release. It doesn't seem to make sense to release new hardware in 2011 or 2012 because taking two quick steps in relation to hardware like that is something that Sega would have done back in the day and that never worked out for them. It may never be accepted by the market as it could split the userbase where Xbox Live intercompatibility is so very important.

Then thinking about 2013 and 2014, the former is 3 years after Natal which may be both too late and too soon at the same time. Its too late to respond to either Sony or Nintendos actions. They still need to position themselves appropriately from next year for both the new technologies like 3D and improving TV technology. In addition to this they may need to increase the memory allocation in the operating system of the Xbox to truely take advantage of the new interfaces possibilities. The problem? 3 years may be too soon for the users adopting Natal to see new hardware come out.

I remembered something from a blog based in Seatle where MS-land is and that was 3 completely new hardware revisions on the table after Valhalla or even replacing that concept. I also thought about it strategically and it seemed to make sense that if they were getting AMD to go deep within the bowels of their chips to unify them, they can easily add some new features and up spec as they go at the same time. I also remembered comments on 'forward compatibility' and how Microsoft wanted to move to more itterative hardware design rather than taking big steps.

I suggest you ignore this next part if you don't like technical stuff.

A Jasper motherboard, note the spaces and try to imagine what it would look like if you delete the chip on the right which is the GPU and Ed-Ram on the one package.

As they stand with Jasper the die sizes and processes are as follows:

• CPU 135mm^2 on 65nm
• GPU 121mm^2 on 65nm
• ED-Ram 64mm^2 on 65nm
• 8x 512mbit GDDR3

To give an estimated shrink you simply take the ratio of the squares so 65^2/80^2 = 0.66 then add a little bit because not all shrinks are perfect so lets take .72 scaling in this example. In that case the ED-Ram would shrink from 64mm^2 to 46mm^2. So now we have all the chips on the same process node we can then look at what size the whole system would take up. Im going to cut it down a further 20mm^2 to account for them reworking the chip and the deletion of input/output hardware.

CPU + GPU + (shrunk) ED-RAM -20mm^2 = 302mm^2

Now performing the same operation as before 45^2/65^2 = 0.47 and like before not perfect scaling so I will assume a perfect shrink as the previous shrinks have left a large margin within the dies. ch gives us 141mm^2. To check my working the original die size total was 438mm^2 and a direct shrink from 90nm to 45nm at the same scaling rate would be theoretically 0.25 (104mm^2) and thats pretty close to the final result as well if you do not assume a perfect shrink.

You can rejoin here if you're not technical

What would they want to do with the Xbox Wii'd that they cannot do with the Xbox 360?

The Xbox 360 is 5 years old next year, so the values that the device was made for have shifted in that time. Now the machine has to meet a whole new set of values and take full advantage of a completely new interface. Full HD televisions are coming into vogue, 3D at cinema is having a revival and this will translate at some point to home users and to get full use out of an interface which works off the 3D positioning of limbs it would be best that the actual console can display 3D images as well.

Im not saying that the current Xbox 360 cannot take advantage of Natal in games, all im saying is that it cannot take full advantage of all the possibilities in Natal and waiting 3 years for new hardware seems a little foolish as that would simply give Nintendo and Sony all the time they could need to examine and beat Natal. With what was the Valhalla revision they now have an opportunity to give the Xbox 360 the hardware legs it needs for the next 4 years or so.

Doubling the ram and trippling the memory bandwidth would cost them less per unit than keeping their obsolete and outdated ram, increasing the die size of the combined CPU + GPU + ED-Ram is still much cheaper than the two package, 3 chips they use at the moment and give them room for further cost optimisation. In addition modern GPU architectures pack in more performance per watt or per mm^2 than the older 360 architecture. A little more of something newer goes a long long way in comparison. If they can render everything at full HD 1080P they can drop the scaler and give 3D images the crispness they need.

you have a point squilliam

i wouldn't be surprised if microsoft came out with xbox720 at the 399 price tag or at least an xbox 360 slim or lite at the same price tag fall of this year. =]

Microsoft doesn't have the casual drawing Nintendo has.

Frankly, Mario franchise has always been friendly to the casual crowd. unlike Master Chief.


so, no... the closer comparision would be to PSP Go, i believe, Completely new direction, too revolutionary to be taking in by core, too unfriendly to casual

Are you suggesting this revision would theoretically carry Microsoft for another 5 years or whatever?

I think it has some merit, but I believe there are a few challenges:

1. The hardware needs to be reliable, MS's reputation in this arena is already low and I think releasing another "rush job" console that breaks down could be suicide.
2. Pricing may need to be aggressive. I don't know if MS can develop new hardware that people will pay $400 for given the coming plateau in graphical fidelity. Depends on the accompanying software.

I'm also still very skeptical about Natal. It sounds great, but I need to see real people playing real games on the hardware.

Nice thread. A couple of questions for you.

Are you suggesting that games be made to work for both the original 360 specs and these enhanced ones? Perhaps a few that are enhanced only? This could be an issue with developers unless MS develops software for easy development and handling of the two different sets of game assets. This would not really be an issue for first party 360 or third party PC/360 games, but console only multiplats would probably not utilize the higher end specs of the enhanced 360s unless Sony released a newer console or enhanced specs for the PS3 as well. Perhaps it isn't an issue.

What possibilities with Natal will the current 360 specs not be able to handle?

The 360 has giant condensators I wonder why. 

 PS3 Mainboard:

Someone know the reason for this ?

Edit: New specs wont happen for sure I can guarantee you that. It would alienate the old customer base and ALL ADDONS failed all attempts to improve console power were not succesful. A slightly enhanced Xbox360 would make no sense because the people would have to buy this new one and spend another 250 Dollar for a console which offers just a small enhancement. 

MS would never do that because SEGA 32X Atari Jaguar CD Sega CD 64 DD all horrible failures. It would be a really bad decision to make a slightly enhanced Xbox360 who would buy this. most people would wait 2 years for a real successor. natal tries to longer the life of the 360 but they definetly want it for the Xbox720 too. And whats with Sony if MS made a new slightly enhanced version the people would have to buy this and then a year later the PS4 would come and would literally destroy the Xbox360 and the enhanced version or should MS release another console so fast ? Sony would use the situation to hurt MS.

1. They've been engineering their slim for a while now with the lesson of hindsight firmly in their mind. The board layout and testing is independent from the chip design and so long as the new chip is pin compatible they can easily drop it in.

2. Its not faster for more cost its faster for less cost. GDDR5 1024Mbit is cheaper than GDDR3 512Mbit and yields 2-3* the bandwidth and twice the capacity. Also once they shrink to 45nm they will be pad limited on the hardware before they get down to 32nm and they have 3 more revisions on the books, so my theory is the best fit to reconcile these two points.

3. Improved hardware gives people a reason outside of Natal to pick up the console. They said Natal is 'like' a hardware relaunch, but what if Natal is a hardware relaunch?

I dont think at this point MS is gonna prod their already displeased userbase with hardware revision(RAM et al).. natal should be an interesting idea.. but its a lot like the wii is to the gamecube.. a newer means of input rather than a hardware overhaul.

It would be an industry rocking move if they did this. I actually think this would be a great move, and I would get behind it without a second thought. Like you said, RAM is the place to hit. What I wolud do is bump up the Xenos on chip RAM to 24MB so it can do its job at 1080p without any fallbacks. Then add another 512MB of memory to the main pool, and through in 256MB of SSD for the OS. With these minor upgrades they would see major performance improvments.

Launch Xbox Natal at $399, and I think MS would have a winner on their hands.

Oh, but one thing they have to think of. May not be that big of a deal, but they have to make sure that the Zune market place is offering 3D versions of the same movies Blu-ray is offering. I don't see why they couldn't, but you know if they don't Sony will be shouting only game console with 3D movies.

Sorry, I can't edit my post from the PS3 browser, but I thought of two big problems.

DVD, and developer support.

Right now Sony has the advatnage with Cell, and Blu-ray, but devs are not taking advantage of them. This leads me to believe that the same would happen with the extra memory added to the Natal. Also as of right now MS is already battling despratly over disc space. Doubling the assets would mean every game on multiple discs, or very small games.

So I think if this happed, only MS games would see the benefit, and unless it started selling like the Wii that would not change.

I think it may be wiser just to stick to the 2013 - 14 for new consoles.