Its at the point where it either declines or finds another market. Its at the fat/profitable part of a consoles life-cycle.

I think by 2010, it should be nearing its final stage. This generation should end by 2011 or 2012. 360 was the first console to be release from this gen. As of now, it's in its fourth stage or so.

1. Denial — "I feel fine."; "This can't be happening, not to me."
Denial is usually only a temporary defense for the individual. This feeling is generally replaced with heightened awareness of situations and individuals that will be left behind after death.[1]

2. Anger — "Why me? It's not fair!"; "How can this happen to me?"; "Who is to blame?"
Once in the second stage, the individual recognizes that denial cannot continue. Because of anger, the person is very difficult to care for due to misplaced feelings of rage and envy. Any individual that symbolizes life or energy is subject to projected resentment and jealousy.[1]

3. Bargaining — "Just let me live to see my children graduate."; "I'll do anything for a few more years."; "I will give my life savings if..."
The third stage involves the hope that the individual can somehow postpone or delay death. Usually, the negotiation for an extended life is made with a higher power in exchange for a reformed lifestyle. Psychologically, the individual is saying, "I understand I will die, but if I could just have more time..."[1]

4. Depression — "I'm so sad, why bother with anything?"; "I'm going to die . . . What's the point?"; "I miss my loved one, why go on?"
During the fourth stage, the dying person begins to understand the certainty of death. Because of this, the individual may become silent, refuse visitors and spend much of the time crying and grieving. This process allows the dying person to disconnect oneself from things of love and affection. It is not recommended to attempt to cheer up an individual who is in this stage. It is an important time for grieving that must be processed.[1]

5. Acceptance — "It's going to be okay."; "I can't fight it, I may as well prepare for it."
This final stage comes with peace and understanding of the death that is approaching. Generally, the person in the fifth stage will want to be left alone. Additionally, feelings and physical pain may be non-existent. This stage has also been described as the end of the dying struggle.[1]



Probably still in #1, denial. "Just wait til' Natal"

It has passed its prime which leads me to suspect that Natal may not be all that's in Micro$oft's sleeve this coming year.  I also suspect there may be a ring of truth to Ballmer's original announcement, bringing into focus the possible release of M$'s nextgen offering.   I mean, c'mon when have you seen a peripheral launch be a Micro$oft focus of hype?  They've had hundreds of PC and console add-ons and none of them have received the same amount of hype that M$ seems to be building up for a flaky new way to control games.  All signs suggests that new controller on old console doesn't add much value to the existing user base, the original package would still be what matters for new customers.  Here's my conspiracy theory of the day, M$ will announce Xbox gen 3 this coming E3.  Mark my words. ;)

Edit: This is prediction would hold true, unless Ballmer gets kicked out of Micro$oft.  In which case all bets are off.

I think we will see a 360 facelift similar to the PS3 slim, coupled with Natal, a strong software line up for 2010 and a possible additional price cut I think 360 sales will see a boost next year. The PS3 will struggle to make much headway with LTD sales.

theprof00 said: 1. Denial — "I feel fine."; "This can't be happening, not to me." Denial is usually only a temporary defense for the individual. This feeling is generally replaced with heightened awareness of situations and individuals that will be left behind after death.[1] 2. Anger — "Why me? It's not fair!"; "How can this happen to me?"; "Who is to blame?" Once in the second stage, the individual recognizes that denial cannot continue. Because of anger, the person is very difficult to care for due to misplaced feelings of rage and envy. Any individual that symbolizes life or energy is subject to projected resentment and jealousy.[1] 3. Bargaining — "Just let me live to see my children graduate."; "I'll do anything for a few more years."; "I will give my life savings if..." The third stage involves the hope that the individual can somehow postpone or delay death. Usually, the negotiation for an extended life is made with a higher power in exchange for a reformed lifestyle. Psychologically, the individual is saying, "I understand I will die, but if I could just have more time..."[1] 4. Depression — "I'm so sad, why bother with anything?"; "I'm going to die . . . What's the point?"; "I miss my loved one, why go on?" During the fourth stage, the dying person begins to understand the certainty of death. Because of this, the individual may become silent, refuse visitors and spend much of the time crying and grieving. This process allows the dying person to disconnect oneself from things of love and affection. It is not recommended to attempt to cheer up an individual who is in this stage. It is an important time for grieving that must be processed.[1] 5. Acceptance — "It's going to be okay."; "I can't fight it, I may as well prepare for it." This final stage comes with peace and understanding of the death that is approaching. Generally, the person in the fifth stage will want to be left alone. Additionally, feelings and physical pain may be non-existent. This stage has also been described as the end of the dying struggle.[1] Probably still in #1, denial. "Just wait til' Natal"

Actually, considering your example and the way Microsoft execs act, XBOX360 would be going through 1-3 all at the same time.

But I don't think the 360 is exactly 'dying'.  As I said before, this gen isn't exactly normal.

It's still selling well, so in the middle.

I hope its not to far. I just replaced my RR"ed 360 this month. I would like to see it last at least another 3 years, but I am hoping its more like 5. Tech wise their is no reason to upgrade. 1080p at 60fps won't change anytthing, and 3D is still to far out. Natal will be the biggest advancemnt they can really make. 360 and PS3 are just way ahead of where the software, and related hardware (Audio, Video) are. Until they atch up, we don't need more powerful systems.

Exactly my thoughts.  Halo Reach / Fable III and Natal in 2010 + 2 years of full support, 2011 Gears of War 3, Modern Warfare 3 and lots of Natal games and in 2012 --> Xbox 3. So another 20 million consoles is possible. 55 - 60 million is a pretty big number for a console and more than enough to gurantee 3rd party support till the end.

By the way, 2009 should be the year the Xbox 360 is discontinued if it were the original Xbox. Actually the Xbox 360 could be the main platform for 7 years, that would be longer than the allmighty PS2.

Its in the humble stage....=D