It has passed its prime which leads me to suspect that Natal may not be all that's in Micro$oft's sleeve this coming year. I also suspect there may be a ring of truth to Ballmer's original announcement, bringing into focus the possible release of M$'s nextgen offering. I mean, c'mon when have you seen a peripheral launch be a Micro$oft focus of hype? They've had hundreds of PC and console add-ons and none of them have received the same amount of hype that M$ seems to be building up for a flaky new way to control games. All signs suggests that new controller on old console doesn't add much value to the existing user base, the original package would still be what matters for new customers. Here's my conspiracy theory of the day, M$ will announce Xbox gen 3 this coming E3. Mark my words. ;)
Edit: This is prediction would hold true, unless Ballmer gets kicked out of Micro$oft. In which case all bets are off.