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Forums - Sales - Famitsu Sales (12/14 - 12/20) ff13 launch week

bmmb1 on 23 December 2009

Ah, every week it's the same story, I hate this step by step process of revealing the data. Show me the hardware!



Currently Playing: Shin Megami Tensei: Devil Survivor Overclocked, Professor Layton and the Curious Village

Anticipating: Xenoblade, The Last Story, Mario Kart 7, Rayman Origins, Zelda SS, Crush3D, Tales of the Abyss 3DS, MGS:Snake Eater 3DS, RE:Revelations, Time Travellers, Professor Layton vs. Ace Attorney, Luigi's Mansion 2, MH TriG, DQ Monsters, Heroes of Ruin

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mrstickball on 23 December 2009
jarrod said:
mrstickball said:
jarrod said:

I expect between 30-40k.  Innocence did 30k it's 2nd week and it opened at only 100k.  Hearts opened at 140k but didn't chart it's second week (we only got top 20 that week, and #20 was 50k iirc).

Really a shame though.  Honestly, I think Namco & Nintendo should've just pushed it to January when we found out FFXIII's date.

Thing with Innocence vs. Graces is that most (actually all) console Tales drop ~80% on their second week. Unless Graces performs remarkably different than NotNW, it will most likely sell between 28-33k this week, and see a 50% drop next week to 14-16k.

Graces/Hearts/Innocence are a bit unique though in that they're holiday launches.  Innocence and Hearts had longer tails that usual for mothership entries, I still think that may apply to Graces also.  Plus Innocence had closer to a 70% drop, which would be ~40k for Graces.

 

But:

  • Tales of Destiny 2 launched on November 28th
  • Tales of Rebirth launched on December 16th
  • Tales of The Abyss launched on December 15th
  • Tales of Destiny launched on November 30th

So there are a decent number of Tales games launched during the holiday period that didn't have fantastic legs. The DS Tales games had good legs, but at the same time, they were for the DS, so it would make more sense for a console mainline Tales game to sell......Like a console mainline tales game.

But we'll see. If I'm right, Graces will hit 30k this week (which was the Source's estimation). If I'm wrong, it'll do closer to 40k. However, if I'm right, then I do expect Graces to do 65% of LTD sales on week 1, which would be around 200k.



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

ClaudeLv250 on 23 December 2009

Wasn't expecting this Nintendomination during FFXIII week! May even dominate even more next week!



Tag - "No trolling on my watch!"

bmmb1 on 23 December 2009

When estimating Tales of Graces' next weeks' sales, imo all of you forget one thing - the FFXIII effect. I think FFXIII hurt Tales of Graces FW sales, and may continue to do this in the next weeks, countering the seasonal effect and past patterns. Hopefully I am wrong.



Currently Playing: Shin Megami Tensei: Devil Survivor Overclocked, Professor Layton and the Curious Village

Anticipating: Xenoblade, The Last Story, Mario Kart 7, Rayman Origins, Zelda SS, Crush3D, Tales of the Abyss 3DS, MGS:Snake Eater 3DS, RE:Revelations, Time Travellers, Professor Layton vs. Ace Attorney, Luigi's Mansion 2, MH TriG, DQ Monsters, Heroes of Ruin

jarrod on 23 December 2009
mrstickball said:
jarrod said:
mrstickball said:
jarrod said:

I expect between 30-40k.  Innocence did 30k it's 2nd week and it opened at only 100k.  Hearts opened at 140k but didn't chart it's second week (we only got top 20 that week, and #20 was 50k iirc).

Really a shame though.  Honestly, I think Namco & Nintendo should've just pushed it to January when we found out FFXIII's date.

Thing with Innocence vs. Graces is that most (actually all) console Tales drop ~80% on their second week. Unless Graces performs remarkably different than NotNW, it will most likely sell between 28-33k this week, and see a 50% drop next week to 14-16k.

Graces/Hearts/Innocence are a bit unique though in that they're holiday launches.  Innocence and Hearts had longer tails that usual for mothership entries, I still think that may apply to Graces also.  Plus Innocence had closer to a 70% drop, which would be ~40k for Graces.

 

But:

  • Tales of Destiny 2 launched on November 28th
  • Tales of Rebirth launched on December 16th
  • Tales of The Abyss launched on December 15th
  • Tales of Destiny launched on November 30th

So there are a decent number of Tales games launched during the holiday period that didn't have fantastic legs. The DS Tales games had good legs, but at the same time, they were for the DS, so it would make more sense for a console mainline Tales game to sell......Like a console mainline tales game.

But we'll see. If I'm right, Graces will hit 30k this week (which was the Source's estimation). If I'm wrong, it'll do closer to 40k. However, if I'm right, then I do expect Graces to do 65% of LTD sales on week 1, which would be around 200k.

I don't think you can really compare it to last gen sales, the franchise as a whole has seen a huge shift since PS2.  I'd also argue that Wii software trends tend to more closely mirror DS than PS2, despite the artificial handheld/console divide (which DS has basically smashed this gen anyway).

These days the summer releases just tend to have shorter legs than the holiday ones.  That wasn't the case last gen, but it is now.



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jarrod on 23 December 2009
bmmb1 said:

When estimating Tales of Graces' next weeks' sales, imo all of you forget one thing - the FFXIII effect. I think FFXIII hurt Tales of Graces FW sales, and may continue to do this in the next weeks, countering the seasonal effect and past patterns. Hopefully I am wrong.

I would say predicting 30-40k already accounts for the FFXIII effect.  Graces already saw it's percentage drop, and that's what we're going off of.



jarrod on 23 December 2009
ioi said:
"These days the summer releases just tend to have shorter legs than the holiday ones."

I'd say it has always been the case actually...

I meant for Tales, sorry that wasn't clear.  The PS2 holiday Tales still had that ~80% drop 2nd week, this gen that drop's been reduced slightly to ~70%.



Arius Dion on 23 December 2009

I don't know. I think Tales is like Guitar Hero. How many Tales games have been released within the past year or two?

I do think however that Graces will do repectable numbers as far as Tales games go. It will have no problem hitting 200k and maybe close to 250-275k when all said and done. 300k out the question?



Bet between Slimbeast and Arius Dion about Wii sales 2009:


If the Wii sells less than 20 million in 2009 (as defined by VGC sales between week ending 3d Jan 2009 to week ending 4th Jan 2010) Slimebeast wins and get to control Arius Dion's sig for 1 month.

If the Wii sells more than 20 million in 2009 (as defined above) Arius Dion wins and gets to control Slimebeast's sig for 1 month.

jarrod on 23 December 2009
ioi said:
All PS2 Tales were released around the holidays - had they been released during the summer I suspect they'd have been even more frontloaded.

true, that didn't occur to me.  The only Tales gen released in summer were the GC/PS2 versions of Symphonia. :/

 

 



jarrod on 23 December 2009
Arius Dion said:
I don't know. I think Tales is like Guitar Hero. How many Tales games have been released within the past year or two?

I do think however that Graces will do repectable numbers as far as Tales games go. It will have no problem hitting 200k and maybe close to 250-275k when all said and done. 300k out the question?

Namco's rectified the problem it seems, they're now sticking to 2 Tales games annually.  Next year it'll probably be the next HD game from Team Symphonia and more dungeon crawling PSP fanservice from Alfasystem.