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Forums - Sales - Analyst: FF13 might outsell FF12

jarrod on 20 December 2009
SmokedHostage said:
jarrod said:
TheSource said:

PS3 has a four million base in Japan and through the Final Fantasy XIII launch had no titles top one million. PS3 is more akin to GameCube/Saturn which had a million-seller for every few million users added. The N64 in contrast had 12 titles top a million in Japan on a ~5.4m base. PS3 looks much closer to the Saturn/GC pattern though. 

Never thought about it, but it's really true.  (Famitsu) million sellers for 2nd/3rd place platforms in Japan...

Sega Saturn

  1. Virtua Fighter 2 (Sega)  1,417,034

Nintendo 64

  1. Mario Kart 64 (Nintendo) 1,711,661
  2. Super Mario 64 (Nintendo) 1,639,921
  3. Super Smash Bros. (Nintendo) 1,632,055
  4. The Legend of Zelda: Ocarima of Time (Nintendo) 1,147,068
  5. Pocket Monsters Stadium (Nintendo) 1,094,763

GameCube

  1. Super Smash Bros. Brawl (Nintendo) 1,349,418

PSP

  1. Monster Hunter Freedom Unite (Capcom) 2,453,132
  2. Monster Hunter Freedom 2 (Capcom) 1,723,187
  3. Monster Hunter Freedom Unite The BEST (Capcom) 1,093,586

PlayStation 3

  1. Final Fantasy XIII (Square Enix) 1,000,000+

 

 

...actually, overall PS3 software sales look a lot like GameCube in Japan.

Brawl is on the Gamecube?

Ack!  Should be Melee!



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Shoestar on 20 December 2009

Lately, improbable predictions have been proven true... I'm tempted to side with the 'Analyst'. We ourselves estimate that XIII will push through about 1.15 mil PS3 units in the best case scenario for Sony. That being said, it's not totally unbelievable nor impossible for XIII to outsell XII.



I am a Gamer... I play games and not consoles. I have a PC and Console on which I game... I like games. End of Story!

Azelover on 20 December 2009

positive... optimistic analysis of a PS3 scenario..... deja vu?

I think they need to balance it a little bit more with reasonable analysis, this bias is setting a trajectory of non-profitability. Even if it turns out correct.



KillerMan on 20 December 2009

@jarrod: Where are you taking your numbers? vgchartz show that PS had 32 million sellers in Japan and even those sales numbers are totally off with every game. (FFX sold 3 million in Japan)



invetedlotus123 on 20 December 2009
jarrod said:
Alic0004 said:
^^ Of course, that's the PS3's pattern so far. If it can get another two games to break a million in the next few years, it will be pretty far from Gamecube and Saturn. Maybe its increased sales will lead to even more than that.


I certainly don't know what those other games will be, though. Aside from Versus, what else does the PS3 have in the pipeline for Japan?

I think GT5 would be it's best bet, but even that's not a sure bet for a million.  Versus might squeak by too imo, but Crisis Core sort of makes me think it won't.

Meanwhile, if we look at leading platforms...

 

PlayStation

  1. Dragon Warrior VII (Enix) 3,893,293
  2. Final Fantasy VIII (Square) 3,501,588
  3. Final Fantasy VII (Square) 3,277,776
  4. Final Fantasy IX (Square) 2,707,301
  5. Gran Turismo (SCEI) 2,186,375
  6. Resident Evil 2 (Capcom) 2,154,975
  7. Hot Shots Golf (SCEI) 1,777,895
  8. Derby Stallion (ASCII) 1,737,819
  9. Gran Turismo 2 (SCEI) 1,460,687
  10. Resident Evil 3: Nemesis (Capcom) 1,383,282
  11. Final Fantasy Tactics (Square) 1,270,806
  12. Resident Evil (Capcom) 1,194,779
  13. Tekken 3 (Namco) 1,186,119
  14. Dragon Quest IV: Michibareshi Monotachi (Enix) 1,173,671
  15. Chocobo no Fushigino Dungeon (Square) 1,165,798
  16. SaGa Frontier (Square) 1,088,414
  17. Tekken 2 (Namco) 1,088,069
  18. Dance Dance Revolution (Konami) 1,023,821

PlayStation 2

  1. Dragon Quest VIII: Journey of the Cursed King (Square Enix) 3,555,469
  2. Final Fantasy X (Square) 2,325,215
  3. Final Fantasy XII (Square Enix) 2,322,541
  4. Final Fantasy X-2 (Square) 1,960,937
  5. Dragon Quest V: Tenkuu no Hanayome (Square Enix) 1,614,806
  6. Gran Turismo 3: A-Spec (SCEI) 1,438,743
  7. Dynasty Warriors 4 (Koei) 1,197,349
  8. Kingdom Hearts II (Square Enix) 1,129,196
  9. Winning Eleven 6 International (Konami) 1,116,786
  10. World Soccer Winnng Eleven 7 (Konami) 1,100,238
  11. Hot Shots Golf Fore! (SCEI) 1,083,079 
  12. Gran Turismo 4 (SCEI) 1,066,749 
  13. World Soccer Winning Eleven 8 International (Konami) 1,059,585
  14. Winning Eleven: Pro Evolution Soccer 2007 (Konami) 1,050,319
  15. Dynasty Warriors 3 (Koei) 1,042,819
  16. Samurai Warriors (Koei) 1,024,338
  17. Onimusha 2: Samurai's Destiny (Capcom) 1,003,874

Game Boy Advance

  1. Pokemon Ruby / Sapphire (The Pokemon Company) 5,337,045
  2. Pokemon Fire Red / Leaf Green (The Pokemon Company) 2,883,670
  3. Pokemon Emerald (The Pokemon Company) 1,995,945
  4. Classic NES Series: Super Mario Bros. (Nintendo) 1,280,158

Nintendo DS

  1. Pokemon Diamond / Pearl (The Pokemon Company) 5,709,235
  2. New Super Mario Bros. (Nintendo) 5,586,920
  3. Animal Crossing: Wild World (Nintendo) 5,073,967
  4. Brain-Age 2: More Training in Minutes a Day (Nintendo) 5,000,391
  5. Dragon Quest IX: Sentinels of the Starry Skies (Square Enix) 4,046,945
  6. Brain-Age: Train Your Brain in Minutes a Day (Nintendo) 3,776,263
  7. Mario Kart DS (Nintendo) 3,508,371
  8. Pokemon Heart Gold / Soul Silver (The Pokemon Company) 3,122,221+
  9. Pokemon Platinum (The Pokemon Company) 2,477,710
  10. English Training: Have Fun Improving Your Skills (Nintendo) 2,163,328
  11. Nintendogs (Nintendo) 1,909,025
  12. Mario Party DS (Nintendo) 1,889,851
  13. Rhythm Heaven (Nintendo) 1,791,593
  14. Friend Connection (Nintendo) 1,852,186+
  15. Kanshuu Nippon Joushikiryouku Kentei Kyoukai: Imasara Hit ni wa Kikenai Otona no Joushikiryoku Training DS (Nintendo) 1,569,882
  16. Big Brain Academy (Nintendo) 1,549,913
  17. Pokemon Mystery Dungeon: Explorers of Time / Darkness (The Pokemon Company) 1,506,952
  18. Dragon Quest Monsters JOKER (Square Enix) 1,467,179
  19. Tetris DS (Nintendo) 1,317,413
  20. Dragon Quest IV: Chapters of the Chosen (Square Enix) 1,214,610
  21. Dragon Quest V: Hand of the Heavenly Bride (Square Enix) 1,189,064
  22. WarioWare Touched! (Nintendo) 1,136,255
  23. Super Mario 64 DS (Nintendo) 1,133,678
  24. Kirby Super Star Ultra (Nintendo) 1,127,320
  25. Kirby Squeak Squad (Nintendo) 1,116,424
  26. Tamagotchi Connection: Corner Shop (Bandai) 1,110,046
  27. Oshare Majo Love & Berry: DS Collection (Sega) 1,055,812
  28. Final Fantasy III (Square Enix) 1,008,230
  29. Yoshi's Island DS (Nintendo) 1,001,014

Wii

  1. Wii Sports (Nintendo) 3,536,288
  2. Wii Fit (Nintendo) 3,528,473
  3. Wii Play (Nintendo) 2,697,416
  4. Mario Kart Wii (Nintendo) 2,369,725
  5. Super Smash Bros. Brawl (Nintendo) 1,812,706
  6. New Super Mario Bros. Wii (Nintendo) 1,401,734+
  7. Wii Sports Resort (Nintendo) 1,376,913
  8. Mario Party 8 (Nintendo) 1,354,885
  9. Animal Crossing: City Folk (Nintendo) 1,166,901
  10. Wii Fit Plus (Nintendo) 1,059,431+

My god third party don't stand a chance in Nintendo consoles, mainly in Japan. I understand why even having lower userbase 3rd party still supporting PSP and PS3 in Japan. This is why franchises like FF and MGS just became famous WW with PS1.



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Majin-Tenshinhan on 20 December 2009

I say the same thing I say with every one of these goddamned analyst threads.

I wish I could get paid for stating the obvious.

EDIT: Oh, it's just Japan? Then nevermind, I retract my statement.



Alic0004 on 20 December 2009

The PS3 now has more 3rd party million sellers than the Wii in Japan :P



 

Kasz216 on 20 December 2009

I could see it. If only for plenty of Xbox only owners only owning 360s... and groundwork being laid by the the 360 rpgs like Blue Dragon and Lost Odyssey... and the poor reception of 12.

Can't say I wouldn't be surprised though.



XiaoMay on 20 December 2009

Better compare it with ff10 or ff7

Ff10 sold a lot more (1.8 first week) with only 4.8 PS2 in japan

Ff12 had very low sales for a FF.

Also, ff13 is out during christmas...



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invetedlotus123 on 20 December 2009
Alic0004 said:
The PS3 now has more 3rd party million sellers than the Wii in Japan :P

That is a no brainer where 3rd party high budget projects should go from now on. Even MH3 will have hard time to break a million in Wii, sure the pay-to-play thing count much as well. Wii have this problem WW with 3rd party sales, I think there wasn't any 3rd party game yet to brake a million first week in both DS and Wii, the only that did it was DQIX that will be DS first 3rd party 5 million seller.