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Forums - Nintendo - The Malstrom thread

I can't help thinking Malstrom is pissed off, and worried for his own credibility, because Nintendo, last Autumn and this Xmas, did very well, but doing things that, except NSMBW and maybe I few others that don't come to my mind, are very different from Malstrom's theories and recommendations. Nintendo adapted to changing situations, Malstrom is sticking to his theories and he just can't accept Nintendo has success even when it doesn't what he wants. To use an analogy he likes, sticking rigidly to his theories he's becoming a birdman.
Times change, and economy isn't a exact science, as every unpredicted crisis unavoidably shows us, so theories must evolve too, if somebody cares he should tell him, as I won't, because I don't care for him and actually he amuses me more when he's pissed and he rants as a lunatic.
Wii wins again. (And let's not even mention DS).
Malstrom doesn't anymore.
And he isn't Nintendo CEO, never was, never will be.



Stwike him, Centuwion. Stwike him vewy wuffly! (Pontius Pilate, "Life of Brian")
A fart without stink is like a sky without stars.
TGS, Third Grade Shooter: brand new genre invented by Kevin Butler exclusively for Natal WiiToo Kinect. PEW! PEW-PEW-PEW! 
 


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Alby_da_Wolf said:
I can't help thinking Malstrom is pissed off, and worried for his own credibility, because Nintendo, last Autumn and this Xmas, did very well, but doing things that, except NSMBW and maybe I few others that don't come to my mind, are very different from Malstrom's theories and recommendations. Nintendo adapted to changing situations, Malstrom is sticking to his theories and he just can't accept Nintendo has success even when it doesn't what he wants. To use an analogy he likes, sticking rigidly to his theories he's becoming a birdman.
Times change, and economy isn't a exact science, as every unpredicted crisis unavoidably shows us, so theories must evolve too, if somebody cares he should tell him, as I won't, because I don't care for him and actually he amuses me more when he's pissed and he rants as a lunatic.
Wii wins again. (And let's not even mention DS).
Malstrom doesn't anymore.
And he isn't Nintendo CEO, never was, never will be.

except NSMB Wii was the reason for their success this holiday, the reason they broke records and ended year on year is because of Mario, so he's not wrong



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Avinash_Tyagi said:
Alby_da_Wolf said:
I can't help thinking Malstrom is pissed off, and worried for his own credibility, because Nintendo, last Autumn and this Xmas, did very well, but doing things that, except NSMBW and maybe I few others that don't come to my mind, are very different from Malstrom's theories and recommendations. Nintendo adapted to changing situations, Malstrom is sticking to his theories and he just can't accept Nintendo has success even when it doesn't what he wants. To use an analogy he likes, sticking rigidly to his theories he's becoming a birdman.
Times change, and economy isn't a exact science, as every unpredicted crisis unavoidably shows us, so theories must evolve too, if somebody cares he should tell him, as I won't, because I don't care for him and actually he amuses me more when he's pissed and he rants as a lunatic.
Wii wins again. (And let's not even mention DS).
Malstrom doesn't anymore.
And he isn't Nintendo CEO, never was, never will be.

except NSMB Wii was the reason for their success this holiday, the reason they broke records and ended year on year is because of Mario, so he's not wrong

He is, because Nintendo did a wonderful Xmas thanks to NSMBW in a large measure, I won't deny it, but Wii came out of the tunnel just after price drop, that Malstrom considered blasphemy. And despite the huge, almost incredible Wii success, XB360 did a more than decent Xmas and PS3 an excellent one, just another thing that partially denies some Malstrom theories. Nintendo follows some of his theories, or, better, some of his theories still follow what Nintendo showed with its disruptive innovations, but Nintendo is elastic, adaptable and evolves, Malstrom is rigid and too much in love with his theories for his own good.

 



Stwike him, Centuwion. Stwike him vewy wuffly! (Pontius Pilate, "Life of Brian")
A fart without stink is like a sky without stars.
TGS, Third Grade Shooter: brand new genre invented by Kevin Butler exclusively for Natal WiiToo Kinect. PEW! PEW-PEW-PEW! 
 


^Not quite out, they were still down yoy, they only went up yoy when NSMB Wii gave momentum, which is why they will retain momentum in 2010, its the games, not price that gave them the boost.

Also they aren't his theories, they are Christensen's theories



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

^^
Christensen's theories are one thing, Malstrom applying them in a rigid way to Nintendo is another, you won't ever get Christensen preaching rigidity to disruptive companies, elasticity is actually a necessary ingredient for disruptiveness, rigidity is one of the bad ingredients that lead incumbents to suffer disruption.
And you don't come out of a tunnel all of a sudden, but price cut effect was dramatic on sales and most probably was and will be a good argument to persuade more 3rd parties to develop for Wii.
And the next price cuts will make Wii a commodity, furtherly denying an argument of Malstrom's that has been already bashed enough. He hates this, and his bitterness clearly shows it.



Stwike him, Centuwion. Stwike him vewy wuffly! (Pontius Pilate, "Life of Brian")
A fart without stink is like a sky without stars.
TGS, Third Grade Shooter: brand new genre invented by Kevin Butler exclusively for Natal WiiToo Kinect. PEW! PEW-PEW-PEW! 
 


Around the Network
Alby_da_Wolf said:
I can't help thinking Malstrom is pissed off, and worried for his own credibility, because Nintendo, last Autumn and this Xmas, did very well, but doing things that, except NSMBW and maybe I few others that don't come to my mind, are very different from Malstrom's theories and recommendations.

Like what?

Alby_da_Wolf said:

Nintendo adapted to changing situations, Malstrom is sticking to his theories and he just can't accept Nintendo has success even when it doesn't what he wants. To use an analogy he likes, sticking rigidly to his theories he's becoming a birdman.

You're actually mixing metaphors with the birdman thing here, but it's fairly irrelevant in light of the latest blog post.

http://seanmalstrom.wordpress.com/2010/01/06/nintendo-cuts-its-losses-on-zelda-wii/

"I’m glad to see the old ferocious Nintendo returning. It is feeling more and more like November 2006 again."

Alby_da_Wolf said:
Times change, and economy isn't a exact science, as every unpredicted crisis unavoidably shows us, so theories must evolve too, if somebody cares he should tell him, as I won't, because I don't care for him and actually he amuses me more when he's pissed and he rants as a lunatic.
Wii wins again. (And let's not even mention DS).
Malstrom doesn't anymore.
And he isn't Nintendo CEO, never was, never will be.

I don't remember him ever saying a bad thing about how Nintendo's handling the DS. What'd I miss? As for the part about the Wii winning again...

Alby_da_Wolf said:

He is, because Nintendo did a wonderful Xmas thanks to NSMBW in a large measure, I won't deny it, but Wii came out of the tunnel just after price drop, that Malstrom considered blasphemy.

 Check your facts.

2008 HW sales: http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=All&cons2=PS3&reg2=All&cons3=X360&reg3=All&start=39453&end=39817

2009 HW sales: http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=All&cons2=&reg2=All&cons3=&reg3=All&start=39817&end=40181

The Wii in 2009 was tracking below its 2008 figures until the price drop, yes. But that bump in hardware sales quickly flatlined, and even with the price cut 2008 sales quickly overtook 2009 figures. In 2008, the Wii's sales curve improved even more than it did at the same time in 2009, in spite of 2009's price cut.

In fact, take note that the 2009 Wii doesn't really start to take off until November, a month after the price drop...and the month that a certain game that a certain someone predicted would be massive finally saw its release. Even more interesting, the 2009 sales curve increases at a greater rate than the 2008 sales curve. Starting in early November.

Alby_da_Wolf said:

And despite the huge, almost incredible Wii success, XB360 did a more than decent Xmas and PS3 an excellent one, just another thing that partially denies some Malstrom theories.

Which theories? The "HD cannibalization" theory? Refer again to the charts I linked to. Note that, in spite of the price cuts, the HD consoles only did not do worlds better in 2009 than they had in 2008. More importantly, one HD console did better in 2009 than it did in 2008, and one did worse in 2009 than it did in 2008.

Alby_da_Wolf said:

Nintendo follows some of his theories, or, better, some of his theories still follow what Nintendo showed with its disruptive innovations, but Nintendo is elastic, adaptable and evolves, Malstrom is rigid and too much in love with his theories for his own good.

Perhaps you're right. I'd say you haven't really proven the latter claim, though.



noname2200 said:
Alby_da_Wolf said:
I can't help thinking Malstrom is pissed off, and worried for his own credibility, because Nintendo, last Autumn and this Xmas, did very well, but doing things that, except NSMBW and maybe I few others that don't come to my mind, are very different from Malstrom's theories and recommendations.

Like what?

Alby_da_Wolf said:

Nintendo adapted to changing situations, Malstrom is sticking to his theories and he just can't accept Nintendo has success even when it doesn't what he wants. To use an analogy he likes, sticking rigidly to his theories he's becoming a birdman.

You're actually mixing metaphors with the birdman thing here, but it's fairly irrelevant in light of the latest blog post.

http://seanmalstrom.wordpress.com/2010/01/06/nintendo-cuts-its-losses-on-zelda-wii/

"I’m glad to see the old ferocious Nintendo returning. It is feeling more and more like November 2006 again."

Alby_da_Wolf said:
Times change, and economy isn't a exact science, as every unpredicted crisis unavoidably shows us, so theories must evolve too, if somebody cares he should tell him, as I won't, because I don't care for him and actually he amuses me more when he's pissed and he rants as a lunatic.
Wii wins again. (And let's not even mention DS).
Malstrom doesn't anymore.
And he isn't Nintendo CEO, never was, never will be.

I don't remember him ever saying a bad thing about how Nintendo's handling the DS. What'd I miss? As for the part about the Wii winning again...

Alby_da_Wolf said:

He is, because Nintendo did a wonderful Xmas thanks to NSMBW in a large measure, I won't deny it, but Wii came out of the tunnel just after price drop, that Malstrom considered blasphemy.

 Check your facts.

2008 HW sales: http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=All&cons2=PS3&reg2=All&cons3=X360&reg3=All&start=39453&end=39817

2009 HW sales: http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=All&cons2=&reg2=All&cons3=&reg3=All&start=39817&end=40181

The Wii in 2009 was tracking below its 2008 figures until the price drop, yes. But that bump in hardware sales quickly flatlined, and even with the price cut 2008 sales quickly overtook 2009 figures. In 2008, the Wii's sales curve improved even more than it did at the same time in 2009, in spite of 2009's price cut.

In fact, take note that the 2009 Wii doesn't really start to take off until November, a month after the price drop...and the month that a certain game that a certain someone predicted would be massive finally saw its release. Even more interesting, the 2009 sales curve increases at a greater rate than the 2008 sales curve. Starting in early November.

Alby_da_Wolf said:

And despite the huge, almost incredible Wii success, XB360 did a more than decent Xmas and PS3 an excellent one, just another thing that partially denies some Malstrom theories.

Which theories? The "HD cannibalization" theory? Refer again to the charts I linked to. Note that, in spite of the price cuts, the HD consoles only did not do worlds better in 2009 than they had in 2008. More importantly, one HD console did better in 2009 than it did in 2008, and one did worse in 2009 than it did in 2008.

Alby_da_Wolf said:

Nintendo follows some of his theories, or, better, some of his theories still follow what Nintendo showed with its disruptive innovations, but Nintendo is elastic, adaptable and evolves, Malstrom is rigid and too much in love with his theories for his own good.

Perhaps you're right. I'd say you haven't really proven the latter claim, though.

About DS: it caters for so many different tastes that it falls easily out of  what are Malstrom tastes, theories and suggestions, still winning.

About HD cannibalization: the HD twins swap roles and fight for 2nd place, but they aren't totally disrupted. And I'd add does really Nintendo care about it? A good part of its strength is in being different, it invented a brand new market and got almost all for itself and it still gets the share of faithful users it had in the old market, that still exists.

About me being right or wrong, well, I'm curious too. 

About influence of price cut: to be sure about its weight, we should be able to isolate its effect from SW releases push to really tell it, will we ever be?

Anyway, these are my impressions on Malstrom, I am negatively biased against him, I can't deny it, it must partially come from my instinctive aversion to aggressive marketing (both of products and ideas).



Stwike him, Centuwion. Stwike him vewy wuffly! (Pontius Pilate, "Life of Brian")
A fart without stink is like a sky without stars.
TGS, Third Grade Shooter: brand new genre invented by Kevin Butler exclusively for Natal WiiToo Kinect. PEW! PEW-PEW-PEW! 
 


@noname2200-----> Seem you didnt get me. I summarized this with a dialog:


Malstrom: Wii needs content on their games not only disruptive games such as MK Wii, Wii Sports and Wii Play.


Wii gamer: What about 3rd par---


Malstrom: Do you mean the third parties thats making retarded games on the Wii?


Wii gamer: But not all 3rd party games are retar---

Malstrom: YES. THEY ARE!


Wii gamer: But what about Red Steel 2 and...


Malstrom: Do you mean the game that everyone's complaining about the controls?


Wii gamer: Since when everyone's complaining about the controls? They say you need to swing hard before the in game character responds.


Malstrom: So I was right.


Wii gamer: But the developer say it themselves that you can adjust the sensiti---


Malstrom: JUST SHUT IT!


Wii gamer: WHAT---?!!


Malstrom: Im only optimistic about Zelda because its the only full game that uses the Wii sword fighting mechanics of Wii motion plus.


Wii gamer: BUT WHAT ABOUT RED STEEL 2?


Malstrom: Did we already discussed this? And keep an eye on Dynamic Zan it will be a cult classic someday and it also uses the Wii motion plus and sword fighting mechanics of it. Much better and have more arcade experience than Zelda Wii. Im still optimistic about Zelda but I doubt it will utilized the arcade experience of swordfighting very well.

Wii gamer: But didnt you even seen the preview of Zelda Wii yet? How did you know?!! And is Dynamic Zan on rails? Why would be this game a cult classic while Red Steel 2 wasnt?

Malstrom: Because I KNOW. I have a crystal ball arent I? And about Dynamic Zan because dynamic Zan has a multiplayer, Red Steel 2 hasnt.


Wii gamer: But is Zelda even from the NES days dont have multiplayer? And again, how did you know that Zelda Wii even becoming like what you thought it would be even you didnt even see the preview yet? ANSWER ME.


Malstrom: OK. You didnt understand me. I might as well make long rant about you on my blog.


Wii game: WHAT---?!!



end of core gaming days prediction:

 

E3 2006-The beginning of the end. Wii introduced

 

E3 2008- Armageddon. Wii motion plus introduced. Wii Music. Reggie says Animal crossing was a core game. Massive disappointment. many Wii core gamers selling their Wii.

 

E3 2010- Tape runs out

http://www.fivedoves.com/letters/march2009/ICG_Tape_runs_out.jpg

Alby_da_Wolf said:
^^
Christensen's theories are one thing, Malstrom applying them in a rigid way to Nintendo is another, you won't ever get Christensen preaching rigidity to disruptive companies, elasticity is actually a necessary ingredient for disruptiveness, rigidity is one of the bad ingredients that lead incumbents to suffer disruption.
And you don't come out of a tunnel all of a sudden, but price cut effect was dramatic on sales and most probably was and will be a good argument to persuade more 3rd parties to develop for Wii.
And the next price cuts will make Wii a commodity, furtherly denying an argument of Malstrom's that has been already bashed enough. He hates this, and his bitterness clearly shows it.

Except, the fact is that the price cuts didn't bring Nintendo out of the tunnel, it was software, that brought Wii out of the tunnel, price drop alone didn;t recover the Wii, lack of software put Wii in the hole and it was software that pulled it out, the price cuts would have been unnecessary if Nintendo had not fumbled and they didn't put Nintendo back on track, even Iwata admitted that it wasn't everything he hoped for, it was NSMB Wii that put Nintendo back on track



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Avinash_Tyagi said:
Alby_da_Wolf said:
^^
Christensen's theories are one thing, Malstrom applying them in a rigid way to Nintendo is another, you won't ever get Christensen preaching rigidity to disruptive companies, elasticity is actually a necessary ingredient for disruptiveness, rigidity is one of the bad ingredients that lead incumbents to suffer disruption.
And you don't come out of a tunnel all of a sudden, but price cut effect was dramatic on sales and most probably was and will be a good argument to persuade more 3rd parties to develop for Wii.
And the next price cuts will make Wii a commodity, furtherly denying an argument of Malstrom's that has been already bashed enough. He hates this, and his bitterness clearly shows it.

Except, the fact is that the price cuts didn't bring Nintendo out of the tunnel, it was software, that brought Wii out of the tunnel, price drop alone didn;t recover the Wii, lack of software put Wii in the hole and it was software that pulled it out, the price cuts would have been unnecessary if Nintendo had not fumbled and they didn't put Nintendo back on track, even Iwata admitted that it wasn't everything he hoped for, it was NSMB Wii that put Nintendo back on track

That's quite premature to state, just by reading the sales data over the holidays season as those always show a different behaviour than the rest of the year.

For one thing, I understand that this year for the first time there was no (big scale) supply starvation vs demand. Thus looking at YOY for the last few week is probably a poor indication of the market trends in a few months.

Let's wait for 3-4 months of "normal" data. It might be that NSMB Wii will cause a steady boost to sales, but it will be quite hard to distinguish from the one granted by the pricecut in the long run.

I, for one, don't believe for one second that N. was so panicked to go for a price cut and thus a substantial reduction of profit per console for the foreseeable future instead of waiting 8 to 10 weeks for a game launch if they ever believed that the game by itself would be enough to sustain sales.

Of course, someone could say that N. was simply wrong, and that NSMB Wii is all that it really was needed for long-term sales boost. But a theory that can't be proved or falsified is devoid of much value.



"All you need in life is ignorance and confidence; then success is sure." - Mark Twain

"..." - Gordon Freeman